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Could the 2012 Drought in Central US Have Been Anticipated？-A Review of NASA Working Group Research

Journal of Earth Science and Engineering 2014年第7期4卷 428-437页

作者： S.-Y. Simon Wang Danny Barandiaran Kyle Hilbum Paul Houser Bob Oglesby Ming Pan Rachel Pinker Joe Santanello Siegfried Schubert Hailan Wang Robert Gillies Utah climate Center Utah State University Logan UT84322 USA Department of Plants Soils and Climate Utah State University Logan UT84322 USA Software Development Remote Sensing Systems Santa Rosa CA95401 USA Department of Geography and Geolnformation Science George Mason University Fairfax VA22030 USA Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln NE68588 USA Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Princeton University Princeton NJ08544 USA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland College Park MD20742 USA Goddard Space Flight Center National Aeronautics and Space Administration Greenbelt MD20771 USA

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record the NEWS （NASA （National Aeronautics and Space Administration） drought in the central United States conducted by members of Energy and Water cycle Study） Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Plains. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

关键词： Drought 2012 Great Plains climate variability and trends drought prediction.

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