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climate variability and infectious diseases nexus:Evidence from Sweden

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第2期2卷 203-217页

作者： Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah George Marbuah Mwenya Mubanga Department of Economics Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences(SLU)Box 7013S-75007UppsalaSweden Department of Medical Sciences Uppsala UniversityBox 1115Husargatan 375237UppsalaSweden

Many studies on the link between climate variability and infectious diseases are based on biophysical experiments,do not account for socio-economic factors and with little focus on developed countries.This study examines the effect of climate variability and socioeconomic variables on infectious diseases using data from all 21 Swedish counties.Employing static and dynamic modelling frameworks,we observe that temperature has a linear negative effect on the number of patients.The relationship between winter temperature and the number of patients is non-linear and“U”shaped in the static model.Conversely,a positive effect of precipitation on the number of patients is found,with modest heterogeneity in the effect of climate variables on the number of patients across disease classifications observed.The effect of education and number of health personnel explain the number of patients in a similar direction(negative),while population density and immigration drive up reported cases.Income explains this phenomenon non-linearly.In the dynamic setting,we found significant persistence in the number of infectious and parasitic-diseased patients,with temperature and income observed as the only significant drivers.

关键词： climate variability Infectious diseases Sweden

climate extremes,variability,and trade shape biogeographical patterns of alien species

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Current Zoology 2021年第4期67卷 393-402页

作者： Xuan Liu Jason R.Roh Xianping Li Teng Deng Wenhao Li Yiming Li Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology Institute of ZoologyChinese Academy of SciencesChaoyangBeijing 100101China Department of Biological Sciences Environmental Change InitiativeUniversity of Notre DameNotre DameIN 46556USA University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Understanding how alien species assemble is crucial for predicting changes to community structure caused by biological invasions and for directing management strategies for alien species,but patterns and drivers of alien species assemblages remain poorly understood relative to native species.climate has been suggested as a crucial filter of invasion-driven homogenization of biodiversity.However,it remains unclear which climatic factors drive the assemblage of alien species.Here,we compiled global data at both grid scale(2,653 native and 2,806 current grids with a resolution of 2°x 2°)and administrative scale(271 native and 297 current nations and sub-nations)on the distributions of 361 alien amphibians and reptiles(herpetofauna),the most threatened vertebrate group on the planet.We found that geographical distance,proxy for natural dispersal barriers,was the dominant variable contributing to alien herpetofaunal assemblage in native ranges.In contrast,climatic factors explained more unique variation in alien herpetofaunal assemblage after than before invasions.This pattern was driven by extremely high temperatures and precipitation seasonality,2 hallmarks of global climate change,and bilateral trade which can account for the alien assemblage after invasions.Our results indicated that human-assisted species introductions combined with climate change may accelerate the reorganization of global species distributions.

关键词： biological invasion biogeography climate change climate extremes climate variability

Separating the impacts of climate variability,land-use change and large reservoir operations on streamflow in the Yangtze River basin,China,using a hydrological modeling approach

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2021年第2期14卷 231-249页

作者： Ning Nie Wanchang Zhang Min Liu Hao Chen Dengzhong Zhao Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of the Ministry of Education School of Geographic SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China Institute of Eco-Chongming(IEC) ShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China Institute of Surface-Earth System Science School of Earth System ScienceTianjin UniversityTianjinPeople’s Republic of China Tianjin Key Laboratory of Earth Critical Zone Science and Sustainable Development in Bohai Rim Tianjin UniversityTianjinPeople’s Republic of China Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute WuhanPeople’s Republic of China

Separating the individual effects of climate variability and human activities on streamflow is more important than just knowing their combined effects.In this paper,using a scenario-based hydrological simulation approach,the streamflow changes caused by climate variability and two different types of human activities(i.***.land-use change and large reservoirs operations)as well as the contribution rates of these three factors over 272 sub-basins in the Yangtze river basin were quantified and compared among 5 different periods(i.e.1988–1992(P1),1993–1997(P2),1998–2002(P3),2003–2007(P4)and 2008–2012(P5)).Results demonstrate that,at the annual scale,climate variability played a leading role in the change in outflow of most sub-basins.With regard to the seasonal variations in discharge at Datong station,climate factors played a predominant role during P1-P2 and P2-P3.Since the Three Gorges Reservoir began operating in 2003,the discharge was enhanced by reservoirs in January-May and reduced by reservoirs in JulyDecember.Reservoir and climate factors codetermined seasonal streamflow change during P3-P4 and P4-P5.Land-use change made the smallest contribution to seasonal discharge fluctuations.This study can support decision-making in regional water resources planning and management.

关键词： climate variability land-use change reservoirs streamflow Yangtze River Basin

The CAMS climate System Model and a Basic Evaluation of Its Climatology and climate variability Simulation

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第6期32卷 839-861页

作者： Xinyao RONG Jian LI Haoming CHEN Yufei XIN Jingzhi SU Lijuan HUA Tianjun ZHOU Yanjun QI Zhengqiu ZHANG Guo ZHANG Jianduo LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029

A new coupled climate system model(CSM) has been developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS) by employing several state-of-the-art component models. The coupled CAMS-CSM consists of the modified atmospheric model [ECmwf-HAMburg(ECHAM5)], ocean model [Modular Ocean Model(MOM4)], sea ice model [Sea Ice Simulator(SIS)], and land surface model [Common Land Model(CoLM)]. A detailed model description is presented and both the pre-industrial and "historical" simulations are preliminarily evaluated in this study.The model can reproduce the climatological mean states and seasonal cycles of the major climate system quantities,including the sea surface temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent, and the equatorial thermocline. The major climate variability modes are also reasonably captured by the CAMS-CSM, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).The model shows a promising ability to simulate the EASM variability and the ENSO–EASM relationship. Some biases still exist, such as the false double-intertropical convergence zone(ITCZ) in the annual mean precipitation field,the overestimated ENSO amplitude, and the weakened Bjerknes feedback associated with ENSO; and thus the CAMS-CSM needs further improvements.

关键词： CAMS-CSM climate system model climate variability model evaluation

中国东北洮儿河流域过去50年气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2017年第4期27卷 481-496页

作者：张凯李丽娟白鹏李九一柳玉梅 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Suzhou University of Science and Technology

Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agropastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenomena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human actiities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrological processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coefficients method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variation. The following conclusions were found： 1 ） The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the study period could be divided into three periods, from 1961 to 1985 （Period I）, 1986 to 2000 （Period II） and 2001 to 2011 （Period III）. 2） Mean annual observed stream flow was 31.54 mm in Period I, then increased to 65.60 mm in Period II and decreased to 2.92 mm in Period III. 3） Using runoff sensitive coefficients, the contribution of climate variability was 41.93% and 43.14% of the increase in stream flow during Periods II and III, suggesting that the contribution of human activities to the increase was 58.07% and 56.86%, respectively. 4） climate variability accounted for 42.57% and 44.30% of the decrease in stream flow, while human activities accounted for 57.43% and 55.70% of the decrease, according to the SIMHYD model. 5） In comparison of these two methods, the primary driving factors of stream flow variation could be considered to be human activities, which contributed about 15% more than climate variability. It is hoped that these conclusions will .benefit futu

关键词： influence stream flow variation climate variability human activities Taoer River

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on global net primary production in the first decade of the 21st century

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第9期25卷 1027-1044页

作者： PAN Shufen TIAN Hanqin DANGAL Shree R.S. OUYANG Zhiyun LU Chaoqun YANG Jia TAO Bo REN Wei BANGER Kamaljit YANG Qichun ZHANG Bowen International Center for climate and Global Change Research School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Auburn University AL-36849 USA State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences CAS Beijing 100085 China

A wide variety of studies have estimated the magnitude of global terrestrial net primary production （NPP）, but its variations, both spatially and temporally, still remain uncertain. By using an improved process-based terrestrial ecosystem model （DLEM, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model）, we provide an estimate of global terrestrial NPP induced by multiple environmental factors and examine the response of terrestrial NPP to climate variability at biome and global levels and along latitudes throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The model simulation estimates an average global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 Pg C yr-1 during 2000-2009, varying from 52.8 Pg C yr-1 in the dry year of 2002 to 56.4 Pg C yr-1 in the wet year of 2008. In wet years, a large increase in terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean was prevalent in Amazonia, Africa and Australia. In dry years, however, we found a 3.2% reduction in global terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean, primarily due to limited moisture supply in tropical regions. At a global level, precipitation explained approximately 63% of the variation in terrestrial NPP, while the rest was attributed to changes in temperature and other environmental factors. Precipitation was the major factor determining inter-annual variation in terrestrial NPP in low-latitude regions. However, in midand high-latitude regions, temperature variability largely controlled the magnitude of terrestrial NPP. Our results imply that pro- jected climate warming and increasing climate extreme events would alter the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global terrestrial NPP.

关键词： climate variability climate extreme drought global terrestrial ecosystem net primary production（NPP）

Indicator of climate variability:low treeline displacement in arid valleys of mountain areas,China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第11期20卷 3250-3265页

作者： YAN Wei-po WANG Qing GUO Ya-lin HU Qi YANG Min AN Yi-da School of Environment and Resource Southwest University of Science and TechnologyMianyang 621010China Sichuan Academy of Environmental Policy and Planning Chengdu 610041China

As climate change intensifies,finding an ecological indicator to quickly and accurately reflect the impact on mountain ecosystems is necessary.The low treeline/timberline,highly sensitive to climate variability and changes significantly within 5–10years,provides a new way to study the response to regional climate variability.This study explored the distribution and vertical displacement patterns of the low treeline in the Upper Minjiang River of China,using SPOT remote sensing images in 1999 and 2013and long-term positional observations.Using the Geodetector model,the study investigated the dominant climatic factors influencing the low treeline displacement.The results showed that the low treeline was located at 1700–3200 m elevation on sunny slopes(southeast,south,southwest,and west slopes)with slopes over 25°.From 1999 to 2013,the low treeline moved downward by 6 m from 2561±264m to 2555±265 m,along with a warm–humid climate tendency.The downward displacement was greater on slopes over 25°and shady slopes(-20 m and-10 m,respectively)than on slopes≤25°and sunny slopes.Additionally,the downward was greater in the warm and humid Zagunao River Basin(-15 m)compared to the arid valley center(-7 m)and the cold Heishui River Basin(-3 m).Meanwhile,the low treeline displacement correlated negatively with precipitation and relative humidity variations at the significance level of 0.05,with correlation coefficients of-0.572and-0.551,respectively.Variations in relative humidity and temperature significantly affected the spatial differentiation of low treeline displacement with influencing power of 0.246(p=0.036climate variability in mountain areas and can provide references for ecological restoration in arid valleys.

关键词： Low treeline Moisture-limited line climate variability Remote sensing interpretation Geo-detector Arid valley

Terrestrial water storage changes over the Pearl River Basin from GRACE and connections with Pacific climate variability

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2016年第3期7卷 171-179页

作者： Zhicai Luo Chaolong Yao Qiong Li Zhengkai Huang School of Geodesy and Geomatics Wuhan University Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy Ministry of Education Wuhan University Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics Guilin University of Technology MOE Key Laboratory of Fundamental Physical Quantities Measurement School of Physics Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and climate Experiment （GRACE） satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage （TWS） changes over the Pearl River Basin （PRB） for the period 2003-Nov. 2014. TWS estimates from GRACE generally show good agreement with those from two hydrological models GLDAS and WGHM. But they show different capability of detecting significant TWS changes over the PRB. Among them, WGHM is likely to underestimate the seasonal variability of TWS, while GRACE detects long- term water depletions over the upper PRB as was done by hydrological models, and observes significant water increases around the Longtan Reservoir （LTR） due to water impoundment. The heavy drought in 2011 caused by the persistent precipitation deficit has resulted in extreme low surface runoff and water level of the LTR. Moreover, large variability of summer and autumn precipitation may easily trigger floods and droughts in the rainy season in the PRB, especially for summer, as a high correlation of 0.89 was found between precipitation and surface runoff. Generally, the PRB TWS was negatively correlated with El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events. However, the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） may impact this relationship, and the significant TWS anomaly was likely to occur in the peak of PDO phase as they agree well in both of the magnitude and timing of peaks. This indicates that GRACE-based TWS could be a valuable parameter for studying climatic in- fluences in the PRB.

关键词： GRACE Terrestrial water storage Pearl River Basin Drought climate variability

Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water＇ source area of Baiyangdian Lake

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2012年第5期22卷 895-905页

作者： HU Shanshan LIU Changming ZHENG Hongxing WANG Zhonggen YU Jingjie Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

As the largest wetland in the North China Plain （NCP）, the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP. Ir the past few decades, the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate vari- ability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmer,tal issues. In this study, we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake, based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment （a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin） from 1960 to 2008. climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities. The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly （P〉0.05） by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identi- fied around the year 1980. The quantification results indicated that climate variations ac- counted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow, while human activities accounted for 60%--62%. Therefore, the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake. To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake, we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and in- tegrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future.

关键词： climate variability human activities climate elasticity hydrological model Baiyangdian Lake Tanghe River