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Evaluation and attribution of trends in compound dry-hot events for major river basins in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 79-91页

作者： Shaotang XIONG Tongtiegang ZHAO Chengchao GUO Yu TIAN Fang YANG Wenlong CHEN Xiaohong CHEN Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources&Sun Yatsen University/Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Guangzhou 510275China China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute Guangzhou 510611China

Concurrent compound dry and hot events(CDHEs)amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual *** climate change,compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global *** paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation,change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and *** attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model.A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river *** is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China,except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze *** West China,precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins(23%),particularly in parts of North Xinjiang,Qinghai and *** the other hand,dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins(16%)of China with other factors,including parts of South China,East China and Northwestern ***,changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs.

关键词： climate extreme Compound dry and hot extreme Precipitation Temperature Return period

Trends in Temperature and Precipitation extremes over Circum-Bohai-Sea Region,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2012年第1期22卷 75-87页

作者： JIANG Dejuan LI Zhi WANG Qiuxian Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Yantai 264003 China College of Resources and Environment Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University Yangling 712100 China School of Geography and Planning Ludong University Yantai 264025 China

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits show that at most stations, there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights, as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days, cold nights, frost days, and annual diurnal tem- perature range （DTR）. Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/1 0yr, 3.95 d/10yr, -1.88 d/10yr, -4.27 d/10yr, -4.21 d/10yr and -0.20℃/10yr, respectively. Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results, but there is a large seasonal difference. A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales, which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem- perature. For precipitation indices, the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency, i.e. extreme precipitation days （RD95p）, intensity （RINTEN）, proportion （RPROP） and maximum consecutive wet days （CWD）, but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days （CDD）, which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation （PRCPTOT）. Seasonally, PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer, but generally not significant. In summary, this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.

关键词： temperature precipitation climate extreme trend analysis Circum-Bohai-Sea region

Geographical Patterns and Temporal Variations of Regional Dry and Wet Heatwave Events in China during 1960–2008

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第2期28卷 322-337页

作者：丁婷钱维宏 Monsoon and Environment Research Group School of Physics Peking University

Daily maximum/minimum temperatures and relative humidity records from 510 stations in China for the period 1960–2008 were used to investigate geographical patterns and temporal variations of heatwave （HW） events. Dry and wet HW events were compared by different definitions. Regionally, both dry and wet HW events are commonly located in southeastern China in the monsoon area, with neither type occurring in the northeast part of Northeast China and Southwest China, while the north-northwest region of the country experiences dry HW events and a few wet HW events. In the southeast of the country, site dry HW events occurred from April to September and mostly in June, while site wet HW events occurred from April to October and mostly in September. In total, 163 regional wet HW events were identified. The ten longest regional wet HW events lasted for more than 20 days, while the mean duration for 163 events was about 11 days. For the top ten events, six occurred after the 1990s, compared with four before this time. Global surface warming was clear since 1979, but the frequency and severity of regional wet HW events were relatively low in the 1980s, increasing remarkably since the 1990s. Possible reasons for this might be the strong interdecadal and interannual variations in regional atmospheric circulations, as well as water transport related directly to temperature contrasts in different regions, rather than global-mean temperature changes.

关键词： climate extreme heatwave geographical pattern temporal variation China

Plant–rodent interactions after a heavy snowfall decrease plant regeneration and soil carbon emission in an old-growth forest

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Forest Ecosystems 2021年第2期8卷 403-412页

作者： Qingqiu Zhou Debao Li Shangwen Xia Zhe Chen Bo Wang Jianping Wu Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plant Reproductive Adaptation and Evolutionary Ecology Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology and Health in Universities of Yunnan Province School of Ecology and Environmental SciencesYunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of SciencesMengla 666303China School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Anhui UniversityHefei 230601China

Background:climate extremes are likely to become more common in the future and are expected to change ecosystem processes and *** important consumers of seeds in forests,rodents are likely to affect forest regeneration following an extreme weather *** April 2015,we began a field experiment after an extreme snowfall event in January 2015 in a primary forest that was>300 years *** heavy snow broke many tree limbs,which presumably reduced the numbers of seeds *** treatments(rodent exclusion and rodent access)were established in the forest,in which rodent exclusion were achieved by placing stainlessness nets around the plot *** abundance,plant species richness,soil properties,soil microbial community composition,basal and substrate-induced respiration were determined in December ***:Plant abundance and species richness significantly increased,but soil microbial biomass decreased with rodent *** activity and soil basal respiration also significantly decreased with rodent *** other soil properties,however,were unaffected by rodent *** relative effects of multiple predictors of basal respiration were mainly explained by the composition of the soil microbial ***:After a heavy snowfall in an old-growth forest,exclusion of rodents increased plant regeneration and reduced microbial biomass and soil basal *** main factor associated with the reduction in soil basal respiration was the change in the composition of the soil microbial *** findings suggest that after a heavy snowfall,rodents may interfere with forest regeneration by directly reducing plant diversity and abundance but may enhance carbon retention by indirectly altering the soil microbial community.

关键词： climate extreme PLFAs Soil respiration Forest ecosystem Enzyme activity

How to Deal with climate extremes in Plant:Priming,Hardening and Memory

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How to Deal with Climate Extremes in Plant:Priming,Hardening...

Sensitivity of climate Changes to CO_2 Emissions in China

第十五次中国小麦栽培科学学术研讨会

作者： Xiangnan Li~1,Xiao Wang~1,Fulai Liu~2,Weixing Cao~1,Dong Jiang~(1*) (1 Key Laboratory of Crop Eco-physiology and Production,Ministry of Agriculture,Nanjing Agricultural University,P.R.China 2 University of Copenhagen,Faculty of Life Sciences,Department of Agriculture and Ecology,Hφjbakkegaard Alle 13,DK-2630 Taastrup,Denmark)

Increased frequency of exposure to extreme climatic events affects the subsequent response in *** or hardening with a previous abiotic stress endows plant with higher tolerance to future ***,process of seed priming or plant hardening(acclimation) and further mechanism of cross stress memory were still *** studies have made a large improvement in descripting how to deal with repeated climate extremes in ***,we introduced the concept of plant hardening and seed priming and summarized the recent development in studies on plant hardening. Mechanisms of cross-talk in abiotic stress tolerance and memory were also further discussed.

关键词： priming hardening abiotic stress cross stress memory climate extreme

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第5期7卷 422-427页

作者： CHEN Huo-Po SUN Jian-Qi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models project a robust response in changes of mean and climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation （2.2%/℃）. Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent re- sponse, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days （12.4%/℃） and tropical nights （26.0%/℃）, but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days （-4.7%/℃） and ice days （-7.0%/℃）. Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high （2.4%/℃） for heavy precipitation days （〉 10 mm d l） and increases dramatically （5.3%/℃） for very heavy precipitation days （〉 20 mm d-1）, as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days （10.8%/℃） and extremely wet days （22.0%/℃）. Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.

关键词： sensitivity climate extreme CO2 warming China CMIP5

Asian climate change under 1.5-4 ℃ warming targets

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Advances in climate Change Research 2017年第2期8卷 99-107页

作者： XU Ying ZHOU Bo-Tao WU Jie HAN Zhen-Yu ZHANG Yong-Xiang WU Jia National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.

关键词： Global climate model CMIP5 Warming target climate extreme climate change

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on global net primary production in the first decade of the 21st century

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第9期25卷 1027-1044页

作者： PAN Shufen TIAN Hanqin DANGAL Shree R.S. OUYANG Zhiyun LU Chaoqun YANG Jia TAO Bo REN Wei BANGER Kamaljit YANG Qichun ZHANG Bowen International Center for climate and Global Change Research School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Auburn University AL-36849 USA State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences CAS Beijing 100085 China

A wide variety of studies have estimated the magnitude of global terrestrial net primary production （NPP）, but its variations, both spatially and temporally, still remain uncertain. By using an improved process-based terrestrial ecosystem model （DLEM, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model）, we provide an estimate of global terrestrial NPP induced by multiple environmental factors and examine the response of terrestrial NPP to climate variability at biome and global levels and along latitudes throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The model simulation estimates an average global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 Pg C yr-1 during 2000-2009, varying from 52.8 Pg C yr-1 in the dry year of 2002 to 56.4 Pg C yr-1 in the wet year of 2008. In wet years, a large increase in terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean was prevalent in Amazonia, Africa and Australia. In dry years, however, we found a 3.2% reduction in global terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean, primarily due to limited moisture supply in tropical regions. At a global level, precipitation explained approximately 63% of the variation in terrestrial NPP, while the rest was attributed to changes in temperature and other environmental factors. Precipitation was the major factor determining inter-annual variation in terrestrial NPP in low-latitude regions. However, in midand high-latitude regions, temperature variability largely controlled the magnitude of terrestrial NPP. Our results imply that pro- jected climate warming and increasing climate extreme events would alter the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global terrestrial NPP.

关键词： climate variability climate extreme drought global terrestrial ecosystem net primary production(NPP)

Trends of Temperature extreme Indices over Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions in Tanzania

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Atmospheric and climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 520-534页

作者： Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a Lovina Peter Japheth Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Elisia Hamisi Zobanya Leila Francis Muhoma Meshack Anton Mliwa Jafari Swalehe Chobo Research and Applied Meteorology Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agrometeorological Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Climatology and climate Change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Volunteers Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The study aimed at analyzing the trends and variability of temperature extremes over the northeastern highlands in Tanzania, specifically over Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. Quality controlled mean monthly, daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1961 to 2020, obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Authority, were used in the study. Rclimdex and the National Climate Monitoring Products (NMCP) software, developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), were used for

关键词： climate extreme Warm Night Cold Night extreme Temperature Indices NCMP