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Regional climate damage Quantification and Its Impacts on Future Emission Pathways Using the RICE Model

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1843-1852页

作者： Shili YANG Wenjie DONG Jieming CHOU Yong ZHANG Weixing ZHAO Beijing Meteorological Observation Centre Beijing Meteorological BureauBeijing 100089China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai 519082China Beijing Normal University Beijing 100101China CMA Institute for Development and Programme Design Beijing 100081China

This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission *** highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and ***,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,***,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,***,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature *** China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature ***,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively *** 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.

关键词： climate damage integrated assessment model carbon emissions sea level rise temperature change

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A multi-model assessment of climate change damage in China and the world

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Advances in climate Change Research 2022年第3期13卷 385-396页

作者： Tian-Peng WANG Fei TENG Institute of Energy Environment and EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Quantifying climate damage is essential to informing rational climate policies,but only a few studies have systematically compared the climate damage estimates made by different models,especially for *** this study,we used three widely applied integrated assessment models-FUND,RICE,and PAGE-to estimate the damage under coupled shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways(RCPs).Results show that the costs of climate damage constitute approximately 1.5%and 0.7%of China's GDP and global GDP per 1℃ temperature rise on average,*** can reduce climate risk by lowering the average estimate and worst-case effects of climate *** with business-as-usual emissions(RCP8.5),the 2℃ target will reduce the average estimate of climate damage for China and the world by 93%and 87%,respectively,and by 80%and 84%,respectively,in the worst-case *** analysis of climate damage highlights the inconsistency of sector scope and significant parameter uncertainties in damage modules,requiring further improvement to integrate subfield research advances,particularly for damage related to rising sea levels and cooling energy demand.

关键词： Integrated assessment models climate damage Shared socioeconomic pathways Representative concentration pathways China

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