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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved climate service

Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 904-916页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nicola MARTIN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Gill M.MARTIN Nicola GOLDING Joanne CAMP Peiqun ZHANG Chris D.HEWITT Leon HERMANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li REN Ying LIU Min LIU Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth PL13DHUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Wuhan Regional climate Center Wuhan 430074China

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July(MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

关键词： seasonal rainfall forecasts climate service Yangtze River basin(YRB) East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)

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climate services for Water Resource Management in China: The Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 87-100页

作者： Yujie WANG Xiang LI Song LIU Zhenyu HAN Lianchun SONG Zongjian KE Keyao CHEN Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 National climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Hanjiang Water Resources&Hydropower Group Co. Ltd.Wuhan 430000

The efficiencies and effectiveness of water resource management are inextricably linked to climate services. This study demonstrates a climate information service for Danjiangkou Reservoir, which is the largest artificial lake in Asia, facing mounting challenges for flood control, water storage, and water diversion. Unlike traditional water resource management on the basis of short-term weather forecast and runoff monitoring, subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)and annual climate predictions as well as long-term climate change projections were well used to support the decision makers in Danjiangkou Reservoir. The National climate Center(NCC) has projected the changes of future climate and extreme events by dynamically downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)projections to 25-km resolution for the long-term planning of water resource management in Danjiangkou ***-time climate predictions based on climate models and downscaling interpretation and application methods at different timescales were also provided to meet the specific needs of earlier predictions and spatial refinement for the short-term diversion of the reservoir. Our results show that such climate services facilitated the Diversion Center of Danjiangkou Reservoir(DCDR) to reasonably control the operational water level, increased the ecological water supply to the northern portion of China by 844 million m^(3), and reduced as much as 1.67 billion m^(3) of abandoned water in 2019. In the future, it is necessary to develop climate prediction methods to increase spatial and temporal resolutions and prediction skills, and enhance interactions between providers and users.

关键词： climate service water resource management climate prediction climate projection reservoir

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climate Change, Local Weather and Customized Early Warning Systems based on Biometeorological Indexes

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Journal of Earth Science and Engineering 2015年第3期5卷 173-181页

作者： Pablo Fdez-Arroyabe Department of Geography University of Cantabria Avda. Los Castros S/N 39005 Santander Spain President-Elect of the International Society of Biometeorology

The following paper is a brief theoretical approach to the state of the art in relation to the new demands of society in the area of climate and weather-related services for health. Apart from the study of the impacts of climate change on health which requires a longer consideration, a special emphasis is given to the area of weather-related services based on biometeorological forecasting. A new way of understanding the interaction between atmospheric factors and living organisms is presented and some biometeorological indexes already developed are shown. Customized biometeorological services must be constructed in the field of human health based on the ICTs development and the amount of climatic data available but new approaches and scientific methods are required to success in achieving this enterprise.

关键词： climate service variability biometeorology customized warning systems.

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