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The Enhancing Effect of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet on Summer Extreme High-Temperature Events over central-eastern china Since the Late 1990s

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ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 2025年第3期42卷 453-466页

作者： Gao, Chujie Niu, Yuyu Li, Gen Sun, Shanlei Lu, Bo Li, Chaofan Xu, Bei Huang, Jinglong Sun, Xiubao Hohai Univ Coll Oceanog Minist Nat Resources Nanjing 210098 Peoples R China Hohai Univ Key Lab Marine Hazards Forecasting Minist Nat Resources Nanjing 210098 Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Key Lab Meteorol Disaster Minist Educ KLME Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol Nanjing 210044 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci South China Sea Inst Oceanol State Key Lab Trop Oceanog Guangzhou 510301 Peoples R China china Meteorol Adm Natl Climate Ctr Lab Climate Studies Beijing 100081 Peoples R China china Meteorol Adm Natl Climate Ctr CMA NJU Joint Lab Climate Predict Studies Beijing 100081 Peoples R China Xiongan Inst Meteorol Artificial Intellegence Xiongan 071708 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Ctr Monsoon Syst Res Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100029 Peoples R China Univ Chinese Acad Sci Coll Earth & Planetary Sci Beijing 100049 Peoples R China Jinling Inst Technol Coll Intelligent Sci & Control Engn Nanjing 211169 Peoples R China

The increase in frequency and intensity of Extreme High-temperature Events (EHEs) over central-eastern china (CEC) in recent decades has severely impacted social development and livelihoods. Using observation and reanalysis datasets, this study explores the effect of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJ) on the CEC EHEs for the summers spanning 1979-2020. Considering its general relative location to the right side of the upper-level jet stream exit region, CEC would theoretically suffer more EHEs with a stronger and northwardly-shifted EAJ in summer due to the likelihood of abnormal subsidence induced by the EAJ. However, such an EAJ-EHE connection has been unstable over the past four decades but has displayed an evident interdecadal change. Before the late 1990s, the interannual variation of the EAJ was manifested mainly by its meridional displacement in the northeastern part of East Asia;thus, the atmospheric responses were essentially located to the east of CEC, exerting less of an influence on the CEC EHEs. However, since the late 1990s, the EAJ variation has featured an intensity change in its center over the northwest portion of the CEC, which has resulted in a westward shift in atmospheric responses to cover the CEC region. Therefore, the EAJ could potentially affect the summer CEC EHEs during 2000-21. Our findings offer support for an in-depth understanding of the formation mechanisms of extreme weather/climate events of this nature and thus provide a scientific reference for seasonal climate predictions.

关键词： summer extreme high-temperature events East Asian subtropical jet atmospheric circulation central-eastern china interdecadal change

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