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US monetary policy uncertainty and RMB deviations from covered interest parity

Economic and Political Studies 2023年第1期11卷 75-98页

作者： Zhitao Lin Xingwang Qian School of Economics Jinan UniversityGuangzhouChina Department of Economics and Finance SUNY Buffalo State CollegeBuffaloNYUSA

This paper examines how US monetary policy uncertainty(MPU)affects RMB deviations from covered interest parity(CIP)and how this effect is influenced by China’s capital controls,the RMB exchange rate regime,and international reserves that constrain the transmitting channel of US MPU *** findings show that US MPU has a spill-over effect and creates deviations from RMB *** controls insulate uncertainty shocks and alleviate the US MPU spill-over *** are some evidence that inter-national reserves alleviate and the liberalised RMB exchange rate regime magnifies the spill-over ***,their effects become insignificant in the presence of capital ***,the US MPU effect on RMB CIP deviations becomes prominent after the 2008 global financial crisis.

关键词： US MPU deviation from CIP RMB cross-currency basis capital controls exchange rate regime international reserves

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Effectiveness of China’s Monetary Policy and Reform of Its Foreign Exchange System

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China & World Economy 2006年第5期14卷 48-64页

作者： Xinhua Gu Lan Zhang Faculty of Business Administration University of Macao Macao China Faculty of Business and Economics University of Hong Kong Hong Kong

This paper examines the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy in curbing the overheating and speculation problems under the current foreign exchange system. The paper stresses the necessity of capital controls in China＇s gradual foreign exchange reform and the importance of credible government policy in guiding market expectations. Also, the paper discusses the persistence of China＇s external imbalance, and provides policy recommendations for its reduction.

关键词： capital controls China foreign exchanges monetary policy

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Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China： Lessons from Japan

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China & World Economy 2017年第1期25卷 32-57页

作者： Gunther Schnabl Senior fellow Leipzig University Institute for Economic Policy Leipzig.

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital ouows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy-induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital ouows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan＇s experience and given that China＇s foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.

关键词： China capital controls exchange rate policy Japan rebalancing secular stagnation

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Monetary Policy Transmission with Two Exchange Rates and a Single Currency: The Chinese Experience

Monetary Policy Transmission with Two Exchange Rates and a S...

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作者： QING HE IIKKA KORHONEN ZONGXIN QIAN IMI School of Finance Renmin University of China Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition

In emerging market economies, transmission of monetary policy through the foreign exchange market is complicated by the coexistence of financial restrictions and arbitrages. Using China as an example, we show that the coexistence of exchange rate interventions, capital controls and an on-shore-offshore exchange rate differential makes the long run equilibrium in the currency market *** to this nonlinear long run equilibrium could offset the impact of monetary policy actions on domestic price stability. Omitting such nonlinearity leads to biased inference on the effectiveness of monetary policy.

关键词： CNY CNH monetary policy capital controls

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