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Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Decoupling Analysis of Influencing Factors of China’s aviation carbon emissions

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Chinese Geographical Science 2022年第2期32卷 218-236页

作者： HAN Ruiling LI Lingling ZHANG Xiaoyan LU Zi ZHU Shaohua Post-doctoral Mobile Station for Scientific Research of Geography Hebei Normal UniversityShijiazhuang 050024China College of Home Economics Hebei Normal UniversityShijiazhuang 050024China College of Geographical Sciences Hebei Normal UniversityShijiazhuang 050024China

The aviation industry has become one of the top ten greenhouse gas emission industries in the world. China’s aviation carbon emissions continue to increase, but the analysis of its influencing factors at the provincial level is still incomplete. This paper firstly uses Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology model(STIRPAT) model to analyze the time series evolution of China’s aviation carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019. Secondly, it uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LDMI) model to analyze the influencing characteristics and degree of four factors on China’s aviation carbon emissions, which are air transportation revenue, aviation route structure, air transportation intensity and aviation energy intensity. Thirdly, it determines the various factors’ influencing direction and evolution trend of 31 provinces’ aviation carbon emissions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan of China due to incomplete data). Finally, it derives the decoupling effort model and analyzes the decoupling relationship and decoupling effort degree between air carbon emissions and air transportation revenue in different provinces. The study found that from 2000 to2019, China’s total aviation carbon emissions continued to grow, while the growth rate of aviation carbon emissions showed a fluctuating downward trend. Air transportation revenue and aviation route structure promote the growth of total aviation carbon emissions, and air transportation intensity and aviation energy intensity have a restraining effect on the growth of total aviation carbon emissions. The scope of negative driving effect of air transportation revenue and air transportation intensity on total aviation carbon emissions in various provinces has increased. While the scope of positive driving influence of aviation route structure on total aviation carbon emissions of various provinces has increased, aviation energy intensity mainly has negative driving influence on total aviation

关键词： aviation carbon emissions influencing factors spatial and temporal analysis decoupling China

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