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Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

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Chinese Geographical Science 2024年第1期34卷 118-134页

作者： YAO Tian ZHAO Qiang WU Chuanhao HU Xiaonong XIA Chuan'an WANG Xuan SANG Guoqiang LIU Jian WANG Haijun School of Water Conservancy and Environment University of JinanJinan250022China Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development Hohai UniversityNanjing210098China Zijin School of Geology and Mining Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350108China Water Research Institute of Shandong Province Jinan250014China Shandong Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Jinan250100China

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate *** on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation *** results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing ***,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during ***,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of *** oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation *** and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature *** warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern *** contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

关键词： extreme climate indices Sen’s slope variation mutation test atmospheric circulation indices Pearson’s correlation analysis Huaihe River Basin(HRB),China

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Statistical Downscaling Based on Dynamically Downscaled Predictors: Application to Monthly Precipitation in Sweden

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2003年第6期20卷 951-958页

作者： Cecilia HELLSTROM Deliang CHEN EarthSciencesCentre GothenburgUniversityGothenburgSweden NationalClimateCenter ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationBeijingChina

A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.

关键词： downscaling multiple regression atmospheric circulation indices monthly precipitation Sweden

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