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Analysis of Weather Anomalies to Assess the 2021 Flood Events in yaounde, cameroon (Central Africa)

American Journal of Climate Change 2023年第2期12卷 292-320页

作者： Tatiana Denise Nimpa Fozong Ojuku Tiafack Simeon Tchakonte Christiane Guillaine Nimpa Ngeumo Dominique Badariotti Department of Geography University of Yaounde 1 Yaounde Cameroon Image City and Environment Laboratory Faculty of Geography and Planning University of Strasbourg Strasbourg France Department of Environmental Science Faculty of Science University of Buea Buea Cameroon Department of Geography and Planning Faculty of Arts University of Bamenda Bambili Cameroon

Extreme weather anomalies such as rainfall and its subsequent flood events are governed by complex weather systems and interactions between them. It is important to understand the drivers of such events as it helps prepare for and mitigate or respond to the related impacts. In line with the above statements, quarter-hourly data for the year 2021 recorded in the yaounde meteorological station were synthesized to come out with daily and dekadal (10-day averaged) anomalies of six climate factors (rainfall, temperature, insolation, relative humidity, dew point and wind speed), in order to assess the occurrences and severity of floods to changing weather patterns in yaounde. In addition, Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was computed to evaluate the distribution and analyse the frequency and intensity of precipitation. Coefficient of variation (CV) was used to estimate the seasonal and annual variation of rainfall patterns, while Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test was performed to detect weather anomalies (12-month period variation) in quarter-hourly rainfall data from January 1st to December 31st 2021. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was also used to quantify the rainfall deficiency of the observed time scale. Results reveal that based on the historical data from 1979 to 2018 in the bimodal rainfall forest zone, maximum and minimum temperature averages recorded in yaounde in 2021 were mostly above historical average values. Precipitations were rare during dry seasons, with range value of 0 - 13.6 mm for the great dry season and 0 - 21.4 mm for the small dry season. Whereas during small and great rainy seasons, rainfalls were regular with intensity varying between 0 and 50 mm, and between 0 and 90.4 mm, respectively. The MK trend test showed that there was a statistical significant increase in rainfall trend for the month of August at a 5% level of significance, while a significant decreasing trend was observed in July and December. There was

关键词： Weather Variability Analysis Rainfall Anomalies Precipitation Indices Flood Hazard yaounde-cameroon

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