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From active fault segmentation to risks of earthquake hazards and property and life losses—A case study from the xianshuihe-xiaojiang fault zone

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第6期66卷 1345-1364页

作者： Jia CHENG Chong XU Jian MA Xiwei XU Pengyu ZHU National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards Dynamics Ministry of Emergency Management of ChinaBeijing 100085China Institute of Engineering Mechanics China Earthquake AdministrationHarbin 150080China School of Earth Sciences and Resources China University of Geosciences(Beijing)Beijing 100083China

Strong earthquakes generally rupture along active faults,and associated ground motion can cause earthquake disasters,property losses,and casualties from kilometers to tens of kilometers ***,one of the most effective ways to find earthquake’s dangerous parts of faults is to study the seismic hazards on fault *** that,we can also evaluate the probabilities of landslides hazard,property losses,and *** this study,using fault slip rates and magnitude-frequency relationship as constraints,we calculated the earthquake occurrence rates for the segments along the xianshuihe-xiaojiang fault *** obtained 11 sites of single-segment or multi-segment rupturing *** also provided these potential events conditional probabilities in the next 30 *** the 11 potential earthquakes,we calculated the property loss of residential buildings in the ground motion *** most significant property loss is CNY 7.65 billion caused by the single-segment rupturing of the F19 segment on the Anninghe *** applied the deep learning neural network method in predicting the number of casualties for the potential earthquakes,showing that the most significant event is the multi-segment rupturing of the F29 and F30 segments on the Anninghe fault with the predicted death number of *** also evaluated the probabilities of earthquake landslides after the potential *** results show that areas with intense compressional tectonic stress are highly unstable and prone to earthquake induced landslides,including the southern section of the Yuke fault,the southern section of the xianshuihe fault,and the conjugated area between the southern section of the Daliangshan fault and the Lianfeng *** areas have a considerable number of earthquake landslides with probabilities>10%.The methodology and results will give us a new effective way of applying active fault data in earthquake hazard and risk analysis and provide a scientific path for earthqua

关键词： xianshuihe-xiaojiang fault fault segmentation Multi-segment rupture Probabilities of landslide Property losses

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