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COVID-19 transmission driven by age-group mathematical model in Shijiazhuang City of China

Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第4期8卷 1050-1062页

作者： Fengying Wei Ruiyang Zhou Zhen Jin Senzhong Huang Zhihang Peng Jinjie Wang Ximing Xu Xinyan Zhang Jun Xu Yao Bai Xiaoli Wang Bulai Lu Zhaojun Wang Jianguo Xu School of Mathematics and Statistics Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian Fuzhou UniversityFuzhou350116FujianChina Complex Systems Research Center Shanxi UniversityTaiyuan030006ShanxiChina School of Statistics and Data Science ZhiYing Research Center for Health DataNankai University300071TianjinChina Department of Biostatistics School of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing211166JiangsuChina Nankai Institute of Economics Binhai Development InstituteNankai UniversityTianjin300071China Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University Chongqing400010China Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jinzhou121000LiaoningChina School of Statistics and Data Science Nankai UniversityTianjin300071China Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention Xi'an710061ShaanxiChina Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing100013China Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention Suzhou215004JiangsuChina State Key Laboratory of Communicable Disease Prevention and Control National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing102206China Institute of Public Health Nankai UniversityTianjin300071China

Background:A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).Herein,we investigated the epidemiological characteristics of all reported symptomatic cases by picking Shijiazhuang City,Hebei Province in Northern China as research *** addition,we established an age-group mathematical model to perform the optimal fitting and to investigate the dynamical profiles under three ***:All reported symptomatic cases of Shijiazhuang epidemic(January 2-February 3,2021)were investigated in our *** cases were classified by gender,age group and location,the distributions were analyzed by epidemiological ***,the reported data from Health Commission of Hebei Province was also analyzed by using an age-group mathematical model by two phases and three ***:Shijiazhuang epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 wild strain was recorded with the peak 84 cases out of 868 reported symptomatic cases on January 11,2021,which was implemented with strong NPIs by local government and referred as baseline situation in this *** research results showed that R0 under baseline situation ranged from 4.47 to 7.72,and Rt of Gaocheng Distinct took 3.72 with 95%confidence interval from 3.23 to 4.35 on January 9,the declining tendencies of Rt under baseline situation were kept till February 3,the value of Rt reached below 1 on January 19 and remained low value up to February 3 for Gaocheng District and Shijiazhuang City during Shijiazhuang *** indicated Shijiazhuang epidemic was under control on January ***,if the strong NPIs were kept,but remote isolation operated on January 11 was not implemented as of February 9,then the scale of Shijiazhuang epidemic reached 9,482 cases from age group who were 60 years old and over out of 31,017 symptomatic *** investigation also revealed that Shijiazhuang epidemic reache

关键词： COVID-19 wild strain Non-pharmaceutical interventions Shijiazhuang epidemic Transmission dynamics

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