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Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2019年第5期9卷 316-334页

作者： Farah Yasmeen Karachi University Karachi Pakistan

In this study, the sliced functional time series (SFTS) model is applied to the Global, Northern and Southern temperature anomalies. We obtained the combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature from Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA. The data are available for Global mean, Northern Hemisphere mean and Southern Hemisphere means (monthly, quarterly and annual) since 1880 to present (updated through March 2019). We analyze the global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address the questions about the reality of global warming. We detected the outliers during the last century not only in global temperature series but also in northern and southern hemisphere series. The forecasts for the next twenty years are obtained using SFTS models. These forecasts are compared with ARIMA, Random Walk with drift and Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) models. The comparison is made on the basis of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the length of prediction intervals.

关键词： Temperature Series Hemispheric Temperature Temperature Anomalies Global warming Weather Prediction Sliced Functional Time Series Outliers

The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of “Global warming on Climate Change”

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2019年第1期9卷 135-145页

作者： Yanjun Mao Jiqing Tan Bomin Chen Huiyi Fan Climate Center Zhejiang Meteorologic Bureau Hangzhou China Earth Science School Zhejiang University Hangzhou China Shanghai Climate Center Shanghai China

Contemporary references to global warming pertain to the dramatic increase in monthly global land surface temperature (GLST) anomalies since 1976. In this paper, we argue that recent global warming is primarily a result of natural causes;we have established three steps that support this viewpoint. The first is to identify periodic functions that perfectly match all of the monthly anomaly data for GLST;the second is to identify monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are located within different ocean basin domains and highly correlated with the monthly GLST anomalies;and the third is to determine whether the dramatically increasing (or dramatically decreasing) K-line diagram signals that coincide with GLST anomalies occurred in El Niño years (or La Niña years). We have identified 15,295 periodic functions that perfectly fit the monthly GLST anomalies from 1880 to 2013 and show that the monthly SST anomalies in six domains in different oceans are highly correlated with the monthly GLST anomalies. In addition, most of the annual dramatically increasing GLST anomalies occur in El Niño years;and most of the annual dramatically decreasing GLST anomalies occur in La Niña years. These findings indicate that the “ocean stabilization machine” might represent a primary factor underlying the effect of “global warming on climate change”.

关键词： Global warming Monthly Global Land Surface Temperature (GLST) Anomalies Monthly SST Anomalies Ocean Stabilization Machine K-Line Diagram Signals

The World’s Largest Lakes Water Level Changes in the Context of Global warming

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Natural Resources 2019年第2期10卷 29-46页

作者： Valery S. Vuglinsky Maria R. Kuznetsova St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg Russia

The article is focused on the assessment of changes in the average annual water levels of large lakes of the planet in the changing climate conditions characteristic of the recent decades. Eight large lakes, i.e.Baikal, Balkhash, Superior, Issyk-Kul, Ladoga, Onega, Ontario, and Erie, located on the territory of Eurasia and North America, were chosen as the research objects. They were selected because of the availability of a long-term observations series of the water level. As is known, long-term changes in the lakes water level result from variation in the water volume. The latter depends on the?ratios between the water balance components of the lake that have developed during a given year, which, in turn, reflect the climatic conditions of the respective years. The features of the water balance structure of the above-mentioned?lakes and the intra-annual course of the water level are considered. The available long-term records of observational data on all selected lakes and their stations were divided into two periods: from 1960 to 1979 (the period of stationary climatic situation) and from 1980 to 2008 (the period of non-stationary climatic situation). The homogeneity and significance of trends in the long-term water level series of records have been estimated. It has been established that over the second period the nature and magnitude of the lakes water levels variations differ significantly. For lakes Balkhash, Issyk-Kul, Ladoga, Superior, and Erie, there is a general tendency for a decrease in water levels. For the remaining three lakes (Baikal, Onega, and Ontario), the opposite tendency has been noted: the levels of these lakes increased. Quantitatively, the range of changes in water levels on the lakes in question over the period of 1980-2008 ranged from -4 cm to +26 cm.

关键词： Large Lakes Water Level Changes Global warming

Global warming:Increases in the Instability of Climate in Minqin Desert Area

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2016年第6期7卷 1-7,12页

作者： Zhang Dabiao Chang Zhaofeng Wang Dawei Han Fugui Duan Xiaofeng Wang Qiangqiang Zhang Jianhui Gansu Desert Control Research Institute Lanzhou 730070 China

The instability of climate in Minqin desert area during the process of global warming was analyzed based on meteorological data during 1961-2013. The results show that the instability of monthly average temperature in January and April increased. Isothermal date in February was 10.36 d earlier from 1961 to 2013. The instability of extreme maximum temperature in December and January enhanced. The instability of extreme minimum temperature in July increased. The coefficient of variation of extreme minimum temperature in May was up to 287.3%. The instability of average precipitation in January enhanced. At the same time,the stability of annual average precipitation increased. The stability of climate is more worthy of attention.

关键词： Global warming Desert climate Instability Minqin China

Assessing mitigation options for greenhouse warming

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Electricity 1992年第1期 5-11页

作者： Thomas H.Lee,Professor Emeritus Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,MA USA

Greenhouse gases and global warming have received increasing attention in recent years and gained a prominent place on national andinternational agendas.In 1988 the United States Congress asked the U.S.National Academy of Sciences to conduct a study on the policyimplications of greenhouse warming.One of the tasks in the study was to examine mitigation options and develop an assessment methodologyfor them.This task was undertaken by a panel of 19 scientists,economists,and engineers.The author was the Chairman of that panel.In thispaper,the methodology developed-the“technologicar costing”method-is briefly reviewed and the reasons for choosing it over economicmodeling were discussed.It concludes with a discussion on how the greenhouse warming problem may affect the energy and power systemof the future.

关键词： greenhouse warming mitigation costing panel gases discussion conduct options briefly

Do Increasing Contents of Methane and Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Cause Global warming?

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第5期4卷 819-827页

作者： G. V. Chilingar O. G. Sorokhtin L. F. Khilyuk M. Liu Russian Academy of Natural Sciences US Section Los Angeles USA

In the Earth atmosphere, methane gradually converts into carbon dioxide which, according to the conventional anthropogenic theory of global warming, is the main driver of global climate change. The authors investigated the greenhouse effect of methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere using their tested adiabatic model, which relates the global temperature of troposphere to the atmospheric pressure and solar activity. This model allows one to analyze the global temperature changes due to variations in mass and chemical composition of the atmosphere. Even significant releases of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime and have no essential effect on the Earth’s climate. Thus, petroleum production and other anthropogenic activities resulting in accumulation of additional amounts of methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have practically no effect on the Earth’s climate.

关键词： Global warming Carbonate Dioxide Methane

Numerical analysis of the source-sink alternation of composite global warming potential of the paddy ecosystem in the Yangtze Delta

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Science China Earth Sciences 2003年第4期46卷 385-396页

作者：刘建栋周秀骥于强 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences

By coupling the biogeochemical model with plant ecological model, a model was established to reveal the principle of the composite global warming potential transformation in the paddy ecosystem. Validation of the model with the observed data indicated that the model can simulate both the crop growth processes and emissions of CH4 and N2O accurately. Some nu-merical analyses were made to identify the impacts of different fertilizer application on assimilation of CO2 and emissions of CH4 and N2O, and the transformation principle of the composite global warming potential. Based on the results of the numerical analysis, the source-sink alternation of composite global warming potential in the paddy ecosystem was discovered, and some new con-ceptions of fertilizer index such as maximum-sink fertilizer, zero-emission fertilizer are put forward in this paper. The fertilizer scheme for Yangtze Delta was proposed to provide the important scien-tific basis for a sustainable agriculture in this region.

关键词： paddy ecosystem, global warming potential, numerical simulation.

Analysis of Global warming Using Machine Learning

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Computational Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering 2018年第3期7卷 127-141页

作者： Harvey Zheng Phillips Academy Andover MA USA

Climate change is a controversial topic of debate, especially in the US, where many do not believe in anthropogenic climate change. Because its consequences are predicted to be dire, such as a mass ocean extinction and frequent extreme weather events, it is important to learn what causes the warming in order to better combat it. In this study, the first challenge dwells on how to construct reliable statistical models based on massive climate data of 800,000 years and accurately capture the relationship between temperature and potential factors such as concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). We compared the performance several mainstream machine learning algorithms on our data, which includes linear regression, lasso, support vector regression and random forest, to build the state of the art model to verify the warming of the earth and identifying factors contributing the global warming. We found that random forest outperforms other algorithms to create accurate climate models which use features including concentrations of different greenhouse gases to precisely forecast global atmosphere. The other challenges in identifying factor importance can be met by the feature of ensemble tree-based random forest algorithm. It was found that CO2 is the largest contributor to temperature change, followed by CH4, then by N2O. They all had some sorts of impact, though, meaning their release into the atmosphere should all be controlled to help restrain temperature increase, and help prevent climate change’s potential ramifications.

关键词： Global warming Machine Learning Prediction

Urban warming in Benin City, Nigeria

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2014年第2期4卷 241-252页

作者： S. I. Efe O. A. Eyefia Department of Geography and Regional Planning Delta State University Abraka Nigeria

The study examined urban effects on the temperature of Benin City. The data used for this study were generated from archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency Benin City and the Agrometeorological Station of NIFOR, and mobile transverse method of collecting temperature data at different land use types in the urban canopy for one year. Paired t-test and analysis of variance were used to determine the differences in temperature in the area. The findings revealed an urban bias of 4.4°C, and variation of 5.5°C in temperature within the urban canopy, which confirmed the concept of urban heat island. It also showed an urban-rural temperature differential of 0.5°C, which indicated an urban warming of 2% over its rural areas. Daily temperature revealed that the working days are warmer than the weekends. High rate of anthropogenic activities, which act as drivers of heat island in the urban area accounted for the increase in temperature. The study therefore recommends urban planning with green city-green roof approach.

关键词： Urban warming Temperature Anthropogenic Factor Benin City

Projected warming and Occurrence of Meteorological Droughts—Insights from the Coasts of South India

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American Journal of Climate Change 2015年第2期4卷 173-179页

作者： Dhanya Praveen A. Ramachandran Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research Anna University Chennai India

The latest development in the climate change forecast, using regional climate models, made it possible to provide more detailed information on the future changes in the climatic variables in the face of global warming. The PRECIS, UK Met office Hadley Centre’s Regional Climate Model is being used in simulating the future climate corresponding to the IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2040-2070 with reference to the base line year 1970-2000 for coastal region of Thiruvallur, South India. The results indicated a significant increase in the mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature and a slight decrease in the precipitation over the study area. The outcomes of the IMD method of Percent Deviation analysis show that the Thiruvallur has witnessed moderate to mild droughts during the period 1970 to 2011. Moderate drought years were mainly 1974, 1980, 1982 and 1999 with -35.78%, -30.09%, -30.54%, -27.30% rainfall deviations respectively. SPI-12 is also employed to analyze the occurrence and severity of drought events in the past. The analysis revealed that the year 1974 with SPI value -2.05 was the extremely severe drought year on record during the period 1970-2011. The years 1982 (-1.7), 1980 (-1.67), 1999 (-1.48) were severe dry years. Pearson’s correlation analysis proved that both the outputs have significant positive correlation (0.05 level) with R2 value of 0.992. It is necessary to develop early warning systems and apt drought preparedness strategies to cope with this natural hazard.

关键词： Global warming Drought Standardised Precipitation Index Climate Change Regional Climate Modelling Impacts