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Re-Assessing Climatic warming in China since 1900

Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 243-251页

作者： Zhongwei YAN Yihui DING Panmao ZHAI Lianchun SONG Lijuan CAO Zhen LI Key Laboratory of Regional Climate–Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The regional mean surface air temperature(SAT)in China has risen with a rate of 1.3–1.7℃(100 yr)^-1 since 1900,based on the recently developed homogenized observations.This estimate is larger than those[0.5–0.8℃(100 yr)^-1]adopted in the early National Reports of Climate Change in China.The present paper reviews the studies of the longterm SAT series of China,highlighting the homogenization of station observations as the key progress.The SAT series of China in early studies showed a prominent warm peak in the 1940s,mainly due to inhomogeneous records associated with site-moves of a number of stations from urban to outskirts in the early 1950s,thus leading to underestimates of the centennial warming trend.Parts of China were relatively warm around the 1940s but with differentphase interdecadal variations,while some parts were even relatively cool.This fact is supported by proxy data and could partly be explained by interdecadal changes in large-scale circulation.The effect of urbanization should have a minor contribution to the observed warming in China,although the estimates of such contributions for individual urban stations remain controversial.Further studies relevant to the present topic are discussed.

关键词： global warming regional climate variability centennial trend interdecadal variations effect of urbanization

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Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第5期36卷 479-494页

作者： Jian RAO Rongcai REN Haishan CHEN Xiangwen LIU Yueyue YU Yang YANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and Technology State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Edmond J.Safra Campus Climate Model Division National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.

关键词： sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)hindcast stratospheric sudden warming BCC_CSM ensemble forecast error correction

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Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第1期16卷 16-29页

作者： Peter NOJAROV Emil GACHEV Karsten GRUNEWALD National Institute of Geophysics Geodesy and Geography Bulgarian Academy of Sciences South-West University "Neofit Rilski" Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development

This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993–2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950 s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal(u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions – rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind directionfrom west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season.

关键词： Climate warming Glacieret Pirin Mountains Statistical modeling Glacieret area Projection

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Effects of long-term warming on the aboveground biomass and species diversity in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China

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Journal of Arid Land 2020年第2期12卷 252-266页

作者： WEN Jing QIN Ruimin ZHANG Shixiong YANG Xiaoyan XU Manhou Taiyuan Normal University Jinzhong 030619China

Ecosystems in high-altitude regions are more sensitive and respond more rapidly than other ecosystems to global climate warming.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)of China is an ecologically fragile zone that is sensitive to global climate warming.It is of great importance to study the changes in aboveground biomass and species diversity of alpine meadows on the QTP under predicted future climate warming.In this study,we selected an alpine meadow on the QTP as the study object and used infrared radiators as the warming device for a simulation experiment over eight years(2011-2018).We then analyzed the dynamic changes in aboveground biomass and species diversity of the alpine meadow at different time scales,including an early stage of warming(2011-2013)and a late stage of warming(2016-2018),in order to explore the response of alpine meadows to short-term(three years)and long-term warming(eight years).The results showed that the short-term warming increased air temperature by 0.31℃and decreased relative humidity by 2.54%,resulting in the air being warmer and drier.The long-term warming increased air temperature and relative humidity by 0.19℃and 1.47%,respectively,and the air tended to be warmer and wetter.The short-term warming increased soil temperature by 2.44℃and decreased soil moisture by 12.47%,whereas the long-term warming increased soil temperature by 1.76℃and decreased soil moisture by 9.90%.This caused the shallow soil layer to become warmer and drier under both short-term and long-term warming.Furthermore,the degree of soil drought was alleviated with increased warming duration.Under the long-term warming,the importance value and aboveground biomass of plants in different families changed.The importance values of grasses and sedges decreased by 47.56%and 3.67%,respectively,while the importance value of weeds increased by 1.37%.Aboveground biomass of grasses decreased by 36.55%,while those of sedges and weeds increased by 8.09%and 15.24%,respectively.The increase in temperature had a non-significant effect on s

关键词： climate warming long-term warming species diversity indices aboveground biomass soil microclimate correlation analysis alpine meadows

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Acceleration of global mean ocean circulation under the climate warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第7期63卷 1039-1040页

作者： Lixin WU Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Institute for Advanced Ocean Study Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266003China Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao) Qingdao 266237China

In the context of continued greenhouse gas emissions,the Earth has experienced very rapid warming over the past several decades.As the main reservoir of the Earth’s climate system,the ocean transfers much of the extra heat,which leads to long-term atmospheric warming,from sea surface to the deep oceans(IPCC,2019).Large-scale ocean circulation is one of the basic forms of sea water movement.

关键词： warming ocean circulation

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ON THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN SOUTH ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON CLIMATE AND ITS SYNCHRONISM WITH THE GLOBAL RAPID warming

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Science China Chemistry 1992年第7期35卷 859-869页

作者：符淙斌王强 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Academia Sinica Beijing 100080. PRC

This paper has analysed the major characteristics of long-term variation, of summermonsoon climate in South Asia since 1888. An abrupt enhancement of summer monsoon inthe 1920s and its synchronism with the global rapid warming have been detected by theMann-Kendall Rank Statistic test. Based on diagnostic analysis on the atmospheric circulationover the monsoon region and the thermal conditions of both ocean and land during theperiod of abrupt change, it is found that the warming over land was stronger and earlierthan that over the ocean, which would enhance the land-sea thermal contrast and thereforebe favorable to the development of monsoon low and the disturbance in the monsoon flow.This may be a direct factor for the abrupt enhancement of summer monsoon.

关键词： monsoon abrupt climatic change global warming

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Tropical cyclones in a warming climate

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第3期63卷 456-458页

作者： Liang WU Zhiping WEN Ronghui HUANG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Department ofAtmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change Nanjing 210023China

Over the past few decades,extreme tropical cyclone(TC)events have become more common.During the 2019 typhoon season in the western North Pacific(WNP),7 super typhoons hit East Asia.Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)caused eco... 详细信息

关键词： China. typhoon warming

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Enhancement of Winter Arctic warming by the Siberian High over the Past Decade

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第5期8卷 257-263页

作者： FENG Chuan WU Bing-Yi Chinese Academy of Meteorology Sciences

In recent decades the Arctic surface air temperature(SAT) in autumn has been increasing steadily. In winter, however, instead of a linear trend, the Arctic SAT shows an abrupt change that occurred in 2004. During the years from 1979 to 2003, the first principle component(PC1) of winter Arctic SAT remains stable, and no significant increasing trend is detected. However, the PC1 changes abruptly from negative to positive phase in the winter of 2004. The enhanced Siberian high may have contributed to this abrupt change because the temporal evolution of Arctic temperature correlates significantly with sea level pressure variation in the northern Eurasian continent, and the atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the Siberian high from 2004 to 2013 favors a warmer Arctic. With the help of the meridional wind anomaly around the Siberian high, warmer air is transported to the high latitudes and therefore increases the Arctic temperature.

关键词： Arctic warming Siberian high abrupt change of clim

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Simulating the Impacts of Global warming on Wheat in China Using a Large Area Crop Model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第1期24卷 123-135页

作者：李三爱 Tim Wheeler Andrew Challinor 林而达许吟隆居辉 Department of Meteorology University of Reading Department of Agriculture University of Reading Department of Agriculture University of Reading Institute for Atmospheric Science School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth,development, and yield.Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat.Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum.In this study,the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model（GLAM） for annual crops.The results showed that each 1℃rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%-5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration,except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells.When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5℃,the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5℃to close to 0 at about 36℃.When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set（0.575-0.6）, harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced.In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change,for example,by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure,breeding heat-resistant varieties,and improving the monitoring, forecasting,and early warning of extreme climate events.

关键词： climate change warming wheat yield crop model

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TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL warming

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第2期19卷 120-129页

作者：张娇艳吴立广张强 Guizhou Climate Center Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climateand Resources Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/KeyLaboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education NationalClimate Center China Meteorological Administration

Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall onChina mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at leasttropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in directeconomic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change inthe overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economicloss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under globalwarming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration andfrequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels,the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased,suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China.

关键词： tropical cyclone track economic loss global warming

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