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Analysis of Changes of Extreme Temperature during June to August Season over Tanzania

Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第2期12卷 44-56页

作者： Justus Renatus Mbawala Huixin Li Jiani Zeng Daudi Mikidadi Ndabagenga Anqin Tan Daniela Janine Beukes Praksed Mrosso Rafael Samuel Ekwacu Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China National Meteorological Training Centre Kigoma Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Forecasting Office Kilimanjaro International Airport (KIA) Kilimanjaro Tanzania Namibia Meteorological Service Windhoek Namibia Uganda National Meteorological Authority Kampala Uganda

Natural and human systems are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes, which contributes to the repercussions of climate variability and the probability of disasters. The impacts of both natural and human-caused climate variability are reflected in the reported changes in climate extremes. Particularly at the local community levels in the majority of the regions, there is currently a dearth of information regarding the distribution, dynamics, and trends of excessive temperatures among the majority of Tanzanians. Over the years 1982-2022, this study examined trends in Tanzania’s extreme temperature over the June to August season. Based on the distinction between absolute and percentile extreme temperatures, a total of eight ETCCDI climate indices were chosen. Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the presence of trends in extreme climatic indices and the Sen’s Slope was applied to compute the extent of the trends in temperature extremes. The study showed that in most regions, there is significant increase of warm days and nights while the significant decrease of cold days and nights was evident to most areas. Moreover, nighttime warming surpasses daytime warming in the study area. The study suggests that anthropogenic influences may contribute to the warming trend observed in extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures globally, with Tanzania potentially affected, as indicated in the current research. The overall results of this study reflect patterns observed in various regions worldwide, where warm days and nights are on the rise while cold days and nights are diminishing.

关键词： Indices warm days and nights Cold days and nights ECA&D Tanzania

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