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Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

Science Bulletin 2024年第2期69卷 237-247页

作者： Wei Sun Jian Li Rucong Yu Nina Li Yi Zhang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co.Ltd.Beijing 100105China

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems.Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example,and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming(PGW)experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling.Compared to the present climate,the precipitation extreme under a warmer(cooler)climate increased(decreased)in intensity,coverage,and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8%(18.7%-56.1%).With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework,we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme.Under the warmer climate,large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China,enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt.As a result,the mesoscale convective system(Mcs)that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate.On the contrary,the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate,ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the Mcs.In summary,our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change,making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

关键词： Precipitation extreme Climate change Pseudo-global-warming experiment variable-resolution modeling Multi-scale system interaction

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Impact of Revised Trigger and Closure of the Double-Plume Convective Parameterization on Precipitation Simulations over East Asia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1225-1243页

作者： Xiaohan LI Yi ZHANG Yanluan LIN Xindong PENG Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Jian LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co Ltd.Beijing 100195China Department of Earth System Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China CMA Earth System modeling and Prediction Center Beijing 100081China

A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep convection.The closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger condition.The revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon precipitation.Meanwhile,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and closure.The simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau.The revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.

关键词： convective parameterization diurnal cycle of precipitation East Asia variable-resolution modeling

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