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Photovoltaic Power Generation Power prediction under Major Extreme Weather Based on vmd-kelm

Energy Engineering 2024年第12期121卷 3711-3733页

作者： Yuxuan Zhao Bo Wang Shu Wang Wenjun Xu Gang Ma National Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy Grid Integration China Electric Power Research InstituteBeijing100192China School of Electrical and Automation Engineering Nanjing Normal UniversityNanjing210023China

The output of photovoltaic power stations is significantly affected by environmental factors,leading to intermittent and fluctuating power *** the increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global warming,photovoltaic power stations may experience drastic reductions in power generation or even complete shutdowns during such *** integration of these stations on a large scale into the power grid could potentially pose challenges to *** address this issue,in this study,we propose a network architecture based on vmdkelmfor predicting the power output of photovoltaic power plants during severe weather ***,a grey relational analysis is conducted to identify key environmental factors influencing photovoltaic power ***,GMM clustering is utilized to classify meteorological data points based on their probabilities within different Gaussian distributions,enabling comprehensive meteorological clustering and extraction of significant extreme weather *** data are decomposed using vmd to Fourier transform,followed by smoothing processing and signal reconstruction using kelm to forecast photovoltaic power output under major extreme weather *** proposed prediction scheme is validated by establishing three prediction models,and the predicted photovoltaic output under four major extreme weather conditions is analyzed to assess the impact of severe weather on photovoltaic power station *** experimental results show that the photovoltaic power output under conditions of dust storms,thunderstorms,solid hail precipitation,and snowstorms is reduced by 68.84%,42.70%,61.86%,and 49.92%,respectively,compared to that under clear day *** photovoltaic power prediction accuracies,in descending order,are dust storms,solid hail precipitation,thunderstorms,and snowstorms.

关键词： Major extreme weather photovoltaic power prediction weather clustering vmd-kelm network prediction model

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