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Projection of China’s future runoff based on the CMIP6 mid-high warming scenarios

Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第3期66卷 528-546页

作者： Jiayue ZHOU Hui LU Kun YANG Ruijie JIANG Yuan YANG Wei WANG Xuejun ZHANG Department of Earth System Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource EnvironmentInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California San DiegoSan Diego 92037USA Changjiang Institute of Survey PlanningDesign and ResearchWuhan 430010China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources Beijing 100038China

The latest Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)proposes new shared pathways(SSPs)that incorporate socioeconomic development with more comprehensive and scientific experimental designs;however,few studies have been performed on the projection of future multibasin hydrological changes in China based on CMIP6 *** this paper,we use the Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method(EDCDFm)to perform downscaling and bias correction in daily precipitation,daily maximum temperature,and daily minimum temperature for six CMIP6 models based on the historical gridded data from the high-resolution China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD).We use the bias-corrected precipitation,temperature,and daily mean wind speed to drive the variable infiltration capacity(vic)hydrological model,and study the changes in multiyear average annual precipitation,annual evapotranspiration and total annual runoff depth relative to the historical baseline period(1985–2014)for the Chinese mainland,basins and grid scales in the 21st century future under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 *** study shows that the vic model accurately simulates runoff in major Chinese basins;the model data accuracy improves substantially after downscaling bias correction;and the future multimodel-mean multiyear average annual precipitation,annual evapotranspiration,and total annual runoff depth for the Chinese mainland and each basin increase relative to the historical period in near future(2020–2049)and far future(2070–2099)under the SSP2-4.5 and *** new CMIP6-based results of this paper can provide a strong reference for extreme event prevention,water resource utilization and management in China in the 21st century.

关键词： CMIP6 vic model EDCDFm Chinese basins Future hydrological changes

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Impact of Lower Boundary Condition of Richards＇ Equation on Water, Energy, and Soil Carbon Based on Coupling Land Surface and Biogeochemical models

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Pedosphere 2018年第3期28卷 497-510页

作者： CHEN Xiangdong Xu LIANG XIA Jun SHE Dunxian China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100036( China) State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100036( China) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 15261( USA) State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan 430072( China)

Soil moisture has a significant influence on water, energy, and carbon biogeochemical cycles. A numerical method for solving Richards＇ equation is usually used for simulating soil moisture. Selection of a lower boundary condition for Richards＇ equation will further affect the simulation results for soil moisture, water cycle, energy balance, and carbon biogeochemical processes. In this study, the soil water movement dynamic sub-model of a hydrologically based land surface model, the variable infiltration capacity （vic） model, was modified using the finite difference method （FDM） to solve a mixed form of Richards＇ equation. In addition, the vic model was coupled with a terrestrial biogeochemical model, the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach model of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus （CASACNP model）. The no-flux boundary （NB） and free-drainage boundary （FB） were selected to investigate their impacts on simulations of the water, energy, and soil carbon cycles based on the coupling model. The NB and FB had different influences on the water, energy, and soil carbon simulations. The water and energy simulations were more sensitive, while the soil carbon simulation was less sensitive to FB than to NB. Free-drainage boundary could result in lower soil moisture, evaporation, runoff, and heterotrophic respiration and higher surface soil temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil carbon content. The impact of the lower boundary condition on simulation would be greater with an increase in soil permeability. In the silt loam soil case, evaporation, runoff, and soil respiration of FB were nearly 169, 13%, and 1% smaller, respectively, compared to those of NB.

关键词： CASACNP model free-drainage boundary no-flux boundary simulation model soil moisture vic model water and energy balance

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Understanding the impact of mountain landscapes on water balance in the upper Heihe River watershed in northwestern China

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Journal of Arid Land 2013年第3期5卷 366-383页

作者： Jia QIN YongJian DING JinKui WU MingJie GAO ShuHua YI ChuanCheng ZHAO BaiSheng YE Man LI ShengXia WANG State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences Division of Hydrology Water-Land Resources in Cold and Arid Regions Chinese Academy of Sciences

Estimating the impact of mountain landscape on hydrology or water balance is essential for the sus- tainable development strategies of water resources. Specifically, understanding how the change of each landscape influences hydrological components will greatly improve the predictability of hydrological responses to mountain landscape changes and thus can help the government make sounder decisions. In the paper, we used the vic （Variable Infiltration Capacity） model to conduct hydrological modeling in the upper Heihe River watershed, along with a frozen-soil module and a glacier melting module to improve the simulation. The improved model performed satisfactorily. We concluded that there are differences in the runoff generation of mountain landscape both in space and time. About 50% of the total runoff at the catchment outlet were generated in mid-mountain zone （2,900-4,000 m asl）, and water was mainly consumed in low mountain region （1,700-2,900 m asl） because of the higher requirements of trees and grasses. The runoff coefficient was 0.37 in the upper Heihe River watershed. Barren landscape produced the largest runoff yields （52.46% of the total runoff） in the upper Heihe River watershed, fol- lowed by grassland （34.15%）, shrub （9.02%）, glacier （3.57%）, and forest （0.49%）. In order to simulate the impact of landscape change on hydrological components, three landscape change scenarios were designed in the study. Scenario 1, 2 and 3 were to convert all shady slope landscapes at 2,000-3,300 m, 2,000-3,700 m, and 2,000-4,000 m asl respectively to forest lands, with forest coverage rate increased to 12.4%, 28.5% and 42.0%, respectively. The runoff at the catchment outlet correspondingly declined by 3.5%, 13.1% and 24.2% under the three scenarios. The forest landscape is very important in water conservation as it reduced the flood peak and increased the base flow. The mountains as ＂water towers＂ play important roles in water resources generation and the impact of mountai

关键词： mountain landscape runoff modeling water balance vic model Heihe River watershed

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Inter-decadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Impact on Hydrologic Variables in the Haihe River Basin, China

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2017年第2期8卷 174-184页

作者：李夫星张世彦陈东贺莉谷蕾蕾中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室北京100101 中国科学院大学北京100101 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室南京210098

Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40 a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.

关键词： East Asia summer monsoon hydrologic variables vic model Mann-Kendall test wavelet analysis the Haihe River basin

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气候变化对汉江流域水资源的影响(英文)

气候变化对汉江流域水资源的影响(英文)

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2009水资源与可持续发展高层论坛

作者： GUO Shenglian~+,GUO Jing,ZHANG Jun,CHEN Hua (State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

The climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial ***,general circulation model(GCM),which is widely used to simulate future climate scenario,operate on a coarse scale and do not provide reliable data on local or regional scale enough for hydrological *** the outputs from GCM have to be downscaled to obtain the information fit for hydrologic *** Variable Infiltration Capacity(vic) distributed hydrological model with 9×9km grids resolution was applied and calibrated in the Hanjiang *** results show that SSVM can approximate observed precipitation and temperature data reasonably well,and vic model can simulate runoff hydrograph with high model efficiency and low relative error. By applying SSVM model,the trends of precipitation and temperature(include daily mean temperature,daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature) projected from CGCM2 under A2 and B2 scenario will decrease in the 2020s(2011-2040),and increase in 2080s(2071-2100).However,in the 2050s(2041-2070),the precipitation will be decreased under A2 scenario and no significant changes under B2 scenario,but the temperature will be not obviously changed under both climate change *** both climate change scenarios,the impact analysis of runoff made with the downscaled precipitation and temperature time series as input of the vic distributed model,resulted a decreasing trend for the 2020s and 2050s,and an overall increasing trend for the 2080s.

关键词： Climate Change Statistical downscaling SSVM vic model Impact study

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vic模型参数的地区分布规律及在无资料流域的移用．

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水资源研究 2012年第3期1卷 57-64页

作者：周研来郭生练郭家力吴波

构建覆盖安康流域的大尺度网格vic分布式水文模型，利用有资料地区率定模型参数，分析vic模型参数与气候和土壤因子的关系，探讨模型参数的地区分布规律。根据安康流域1980~1990年逐日实测数据，采用多元回归方法建立了参数移用公式，... 详细信息

构建覆盖安康流域的大尺度网格vic分布式水文模型，利用有资料地区率定模型参数，分析vic模型参数与气候和土壤因子的关系，探讨模型参数的地区分布规律。根据安康流域1980~1990年逐日实测数据，采用多元回归方法建立了参数移用公式，并用来推求无资料地区的水文模型参数。应用结果表明：移用公式在安康、褒河和岚河子流域的模拟效果较好，vic模型率定期的确定性效率系数分别为91.41%、90.01%和86.55%，接近有资料地区参数率定的结果，可用于无资料地区的径流模拟。

关键词： vic模型多元回归分析无资料地区安康流域 vic model Multi-Regression Analysis Ungauged Basin Ankang Basin

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