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unreliability tracing of Power Systems for Identifying the Most Critical Risk Factors Considering Mixed Uncertainties in Wind Power Output

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Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems 2024年第5期9卷 96-111页

作者： Siying Zhao Changzheng Shao Jinfeng Ding Bo Hu Kaigui Xie Xueying Yu Zihan Zhu Hubei Electric Power Planning Design and Research Institute Co.Ltd.Wuhan 430040China State Key Laboratory of Power Transmis-sion Equipment Technology School of Electrical EngineeringChongqing UniversityChongqing 400044China State Grid Chengdu Electric Power Supply Company Chengdu 610000China School of Electrical Engineering Si-chuan UniversityChengdu 610065China

For conventional power systems,the forced outage of components is the major cause of load *** tracing is utilized to allocate the total system load-shedding risk among individual components in ac-cordance with their different ***,critical components are identified and pertinent measures can be taken to improve system *** integra-tion of wind power introduces additional risk factors into power systems,causing previous unreliability tracing methods to become *** this paper,a novel unreliability tracing method is proposed that considers both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in wind power output and their impacts on power system load-shedding ***,modelling methods for wind power output considering aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and component outages are ***,a variance-based index is proposed to measure the contributions of indi-vidual risk factors to the system load-shedding ***-nally,a novel unreliability tracing framework is devel-oped to identify the critical factors that affect power sys-tem *** studies verify the ability of the pro-posed method to accurately allocate load-shedding risk to individual risk factors,thus providing decision support for reliability enhancement.

关键词： unreliability tracing epistemic uncer-tainty wind power multisource heterogeneous risk factors

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