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An Integrated Multi-Level Early Warning Method for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides

Earthquake Research in China 2020年第1期34卷 136-156页

作者： ZHAO Binbin KONG Xiao'ang OU Wenhao LIU Yi YANG Zhi Faculty of Engineering China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China China Electric Power Research Institute Co. Ltd.Beijing 100055China

Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people’s life and ***,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and ***,the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes,leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical *** proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic ***,tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring *** grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method,and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored ***,based on the system reliability theory,we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall *** application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.

关键词： Landslides Early warning Rainfall Deformation unascertained degree theory

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