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CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF typhoon precipitation OVER CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第2期14卷 125-128页

作者：王咏梅任福民李维京王小玲 Yuncheng Weather Bureau National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. typhoon precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan, while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April - December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons.

关键词： typhoon precipitation long-term trends typhoon torrential rain

Climate Prediction and Diagnostic Analysis of typhoon precipitation in Midsummer of Yongzhou

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2020年第5期11卷 152-156页

作者： Zhiyu LONG Wei FU Shen LIU Yuwen ZHOU Yongzhou Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province Yongzhou 425000China

By consulting the typhoon yearbook and restoring the historical weather chart,technical separation of typhoon precipitation in Yongzhou from July to September of 1981-2015 was *** this basis,climatic characteristics of typhoon precipitation in midsummer of Yongzhou were analyzed,and climate prediction and diagnostic analysis were carried *** research results showed that typhoon precipitation was an important component of midsummer precipitation in Yongzhou,but its contribution to total precipitation was not as much as precipitation of the westerly belt *** the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high was northward,typhoon precipitation was more than westerly precipitation in midsummer of Yongzhou;when the subtropical high was southward,there were more patterns of westerly precipitation year;when the subtropical high was normally northward,typhoon precipitation and westerly precipitation were less,with more dry *** summer,abnormal cold sea surface temperature(SST)in tidal zone and warm pool zone of western Pacific and abnormal warm SST in NinoZ zone(strong El Nino event)were favorable for that the ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high was southward,and there were more patterns of westerly precipitation year in midsummer of *** the contrary,when subtropical high was northward or normally northerly,there was less westerly *** non La Nina years when the subtropical high was northward,most of them were typhoon precipitation *** La Nina years when the subtropical high was northward,most of them were dry years.

关键词： typhoon precipitation Climate prediction Diagnostic analysis

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ASYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE OF typhoon AERE'S precipitation

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第1期16卷 91-95页

作者：濮江平吕梅邹力 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Institute of Meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology

The structural characteristics of 2004 typhoon Aere's precipitation are analyzed using the high-resolution data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) of the National Aeronautics Space Administration(NASA).It is found that the typhoon's characteristics vary at different stages of its *** analyze the asymmetric causation of precipitation distribution,data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis are used to calculate the vertical integral of the water vapor flux *** results show that because of this process,along with the unique phenomenon of twin-typhoon circulation,the easterly air current of the typhoon's northern side and the southwesterly air current of its southern side play a joint role in transporting water ***,its transport effects vary greatly at the different stages of development,showing the peculiarity of the water source for this typhoon *** distributions of the typhoon convection area—characterized by heavy precipitation and a maximum-value area of the water vapor flux,as well as a strong ascending-motion area—differ at different stages of the typhoon's *** non-uniform distribution of water vapor flux and the vertical motion bring about asymmetrical distribution of the typhoon precipitation.

关键词： typhoon precipitation TRMM vapor flux vector asymmetrical structure

typhoon Impacts on China's precipitation during 1957-1996

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2002年第5期19卷 943-952页

作者：任福民 Byron Gleason David Easterling National Climate Center Beijing100081 National Climatic Data Center Asheville 28801 USA

Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity is an important feature of China's climate that can have important impacts on precipitation and can cause extensive property damage. In particular, precipitation from TCs contributes a significant portion of overall precipitation. This study deals with typhoons that influence China and focuses on their impact on China's precipitation. Four aspects are examined in this research. Firstly, the study of influencing typhoon frequency reveals that the main season that typhoons affect China is from May to November, especially between July and September. The frequency of influencing typhoons was steady during the past 40 years. Secondly, inspection of the climatology of station typhoon precipitation shows that Hainan and the southeastern coastalmost regions are most frequently affected by typhoons, and most of the regions south of the Yangtze River are affected by typhoons each year. Meanwhile, during 1957-1996, most of the typhoon-influenced regions show decreasing trends in typhoon precipitation but only the trends in southern Northeast China are significant. Thirdly, examination of the typhoon cases shows that there exists it significant linear relationship between the precipitation volume and impacted area. Finally, study of variations of typhoon impacts on China's precipitation suggests that there exists a decreasing trend in the contribution of typhoon precipitation to overall precipitation, while total annual volume of typhoon precipitation decreases significantly during the period.

关键词： tropical cyclone influencing typhoon typhoon frequency typhoon precipitation

BMA probability quantitative precipitation forecasting of land-falling typhoons in south-east China

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 758-777页

作者： Linna ZHAO Xuemei BAI Dan QI Cheng XING Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory Harbin 150001China National Meteorological Centre Beijing 100081China Heilongjiang Mulan County Meteorological Observatory Mulan 151900China

The probability of quantitative precipitation forecast(PQPF)of three Bayesian Model Averaging(BMA)models based on three raw super ensemble prediction schemes(i.e.,A,B,and C)are established,which through calibration of their parameters using 1-3 day precipitation ensemble prediction systems(EPSs)from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and observation during land-falling of three typhoons in south-east China in *** comparison of PQPF shows that the performance is better in the BMA than that in raw ensemble *** average,the mean absolute error(MAE)of 1 day lead time forecast is reduced by 12.4%,and its continuous ranked probability score(CRPS)of 1-3 day lead time forecast is reduced by 26.2%,*** the amount of precipitation prediction by the BMA tends to be underestimated,but in view of the perspective of probability prediction,the probability of covering the observed precipitation by the effective forecast ranges of the BMA are increased,which is of great significance for the early warning of torrential rain and secondary disasters induced by it.

关键词： Bayesian model averaging probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting ensemble prediction typhoon precipitation

CONTRAST ANALYSIS OF APRIL typhoonS LEO AND NEOGURI

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第4期17卷 409-417页

作者：卢山吴乃庚 Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory

The conventional observations data,NCAR/NCEP-2 reanalysis data,and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation data are used to investigate different characteristics of Leo and Neoguri,two April typhoons that ever made landfall on the continent of China over the past 60 *** results showed that both Leo and Neoguri occurred during the La Nina *** convective activity,weak vertical wind shear and upper-level divergence were in favor of the formation of these April *** originated from a monsoon depression and Neoguri evolved from an easterly *** meandering moving track of Leo attributed to strong northeast monsoon and a weak and changeable subtropical high;the steady moving track of Neoguri was governed by a strong and stable subtropical *** and Neoguri had similar terrain conditions and intensities during landfall but were different in precipitation as water vapor transport and duration of kinetic uplifting resulted in apparent discrepancies between them.

关键词： April typhoons formation mechanisms moving track typhoon precipitation