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Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTA

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第10期44卷 890-898页

作者： Cholaw Bueh Liren Ji Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys LASG Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

The relationship between the anomalous East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity and the tropical Pacific SST anomalies has been identified using the results of 40-year integration of the IAP CGCM1 model and 10-year observational data, In the strong EAWM year, the western and central Pacific are dominated by positive SST anomalies while the eastern Pacific is negative ones. In the weak EAWM year, the SSTA pattern is quite different and shows El Nio-like SSTanomalies. The strong EAWM activity tends to create extra easterly flow to the east and extra westerly flow to the west of the warm SSTA region over the equatorial western and central Pacific, thus leading to the enhancement of convergence and convection of the flow in this region and favorable to the maintenance and development of such an SSTA pattern. On the other hand, the warm SST anomaly over the western and central Pacific, as a forcing, may lead to a specific pattern of the northern extratropical atmosphere, which is favorable to the strong

关键词： East Asian winter monsoon ocean-atmosphere coupled model tropical Pacific SSTA composite analysis.

Interdecadal variability in the tropical Indian Ocean and its dynamic explanation

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第17期44卷 1620-1627页

作者： Dongxiao Wang Guoxiong Wu Jianjun Xu Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing 100080 Peoples R China

Interdecadal variability in the tropical Indian Ocean has been analyzed based on the long-term climatic observational data. Case study showed that strong interannual signals formed at the surface can penetrate the depth of seasonal thermocline, where the anomalies last a couple of years. Artificial time series based on damping with exponential decay of selected strong events agree well with the detected interdecadal variability in the tropical Indian Ocean.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean interdecadal variability memory.

POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INTERANNUAL ANOMALY OF THE tropical PACIFIC SEA SURFACE HEIGHT AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2013年第1期19卷 16-27页

作者：李丽平王超章开美 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Jiangmen Meteorological Bureau Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center

By using NCEP GODAS monthly sea surface height(SSH) and 160-station monthly precipitation data in China,the seasonal and interannual characteristics of SSH are analyzed over the tropical Pacific,and correlations between SSH and summer rainfall are discussed.The results are shown as follows:(1) The tropical Pacific SSH takes on a "V" pattern in the climatic field with an eastward opening,and it is higher in the western part(in the northwestern part) than in the eastern part(in the southwestern part).The high-value areas are more stable in the northwest,and the value range(greater than 0.8 m) is larger in spring and summer than in autumn and winter.The high-value area in the southwestern part is the largest(smallest) and more northerly(southerly) in spring(summer).SSH is higher in spring and autumn than in summer and winter over the equatorial zone.(2) The interannual anomalies of the SSH are the strongest over the tropical western and southwestern Pacific and are stronger in winter and spring than in summer and autumn.The interannual anomalies are also strong over the equatorial middle and eastern Pacific.The distribution ranges are larger and the intensities are stronger in the autumn and winter.There is a close relationship between the SSH interannual anomalies and ENSO events in autumn,winter and spring.(3) When ENSO events take place in winter,according to the simultaneous relationship among the tropic Pacific SSH,850 hPa wind fields and the summer precipitation of China,it can be predicted that the precipitation will be significantly more than normal over the south of the Yangtze River,especially over Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake region,eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yangtze-Huai River Valley,eastern part of Inner Mongolia and less than normal over the area of Great Band of Yellow River,North China and South China in successive summers.

关键词： sea surface height interannual anomalies tropical Pacific Ocean summer rainfall of China

CHARACTERISTICS OF tropical CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2013年第2期19卷 162-170页

作者：张容焱李玲高建芸游立军文明章 Fujian Climate Centre Meteorological Institute of Fujian Specialized Meteorological Observatory of Fujian

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe-Imethod, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum centralpressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that theobserved minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods aboveand there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa,respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, thedeterminacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of theprobability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereasthe determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it istherefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with thedeterminacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa ina 1,000-yr return period).

关键词： southern Fujian area tropical cyclones climate characteristics possible minimum central pressure probability method determinacy method

THE EFFECTS OF STATION NETWORK DENSITY ON STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF tropical CYCLONE PRECIPITATION

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 421-432页

作者：鲁小琴余晖应明漆梁波 Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Meteorological Center Shanghai Meteorological Bureau

In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological observation stations on the mainland of China were subdivided into groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone(TC) precipitation statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of China(excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions(east China and south China) and three provinces(Guangdong, Hainan, and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the mainland of China, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different station density schemes for the mainland of China. The regional and provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes, and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater for south China(including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces) than east China(including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore, the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50 km,which are close to the mean spacing for all stations across the mainland of Chi

关键词： station density tropical cyclone precipitation climatic characteristic

Role of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in the East Asian summer monsoon system

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2019年第2期3卷 147-156页

作者： Xian Chen Zhong Zhong YiJia Hu Shi Zhong Wei Lu Jing Jiang China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense Technology Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change Nanjing University State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai University

Precipitation observations collected at weather stations in eastern China, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the tropical cyclone(TC) Best Track Dataset, and a sensitivity numerical experiment were used in the present study to investigate the role in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) system played by frequent TC activities over the western North Pacific(WNP). Results indicated that, in active TC years, the EASM is stronger and the southerly winds in the lower troposphere advance farther north and reach higher latitudes.Meanwhile, the monsoon rain belt remains in the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley for a relatively short period,leading to less precipitation there. Both the western Pacific subtropical high and the South Asian high weaken with the northward shift of the ridgelines for both high-pressure systems as well as the East Asian subtropical upper-level jet. Therefore, the impacts of frequent TC activities over the WNP on each individual component of the EASM are in phase with those of the stronger EASM itself, amplifying features of the already strengthened EASM.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon tropical cyclone western North Pacific

DECADAL VARIABILITY OF SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IN tropical PACIFIC AND ITS IMPACT ON CLIMATE OF CHINA

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2013年第3期19卷 253-263页

作者：陈永利赵永平王凡冯俊乔 Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Chinese Academy of Sciences

In this study,we investigate the decadal variability of subsurface ocean temperature anomaly(SOTA)in the tropical Pacific and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over Asia-North Pacific-North America by analyzing 50 years of atmosphere-ocean data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)reanalysis project and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA).Relationship between the ENSO-Like variability and climate of China is also revealed.The results show that the decadal variability of tropical Pacific SOTA has two dominant ENSO-like modes:the primary mode is an ENSO-Like mature phase pattern,and the second mode is associated with the ENSO-like transition(developing or decaying)phase.These two modes consist of a cycle of ENSO-Like variability,which exhibits a quasi-40a fluctuation,superimposed with an oscillation of a 13a period.The ENSO-Like variability in the tropical Pacific influences the atmosphere system at the mid-and higher-latitudes and subtropical regions,resulting in decadal variability of south wind over North China,the East Asian monsoon and climate of China.During the mature phase of El Ni o-Like variability,the anomalous north wind prevails over the north part of China and the East Asian monsoon weakens,with little rain in North China but much rain in the middle-and lower-reaches of the Yangtze River.With El Ni o-Like decaying(La Ni a-Like developing),anomalous northerly wind also prevails over North China,then the East Asian monsoon weakens with drought occurring in North China.The situation during the La Ni a-Like variability is the opposite.The pattern of anomalous climate of China is primarily dominated by the first ENSO-like variability,while the second mode can modulate the contribution of the first one,depending on whether its phase agrees with that of the first mode.The climate shift in China around 1978 and successive occurrence of drought for more than 20 years in North China are primarily induced by the first two ENSO-like variabilities.The latest La Ni a-Like phase sta

关键词： tropical Pacific Ocean SOTA ENSO-like variability decadal variability climate of China

NUMERICAL ANALYSIS ON THE ROLE OF tropical STORM NAMTHEUN IN THE UNUSUAL TRACKS OF THREE tropical CYCLONES IN 2010

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2014年第4期20卷 297-307页

作者：白莉娜马雷鸣曾智华黄伟王栋梁 Shanghai Typhoon Institute Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast TechniqueCMA

tropical cyclones(TCs) Lionrock,Kompasu,and Namtheun were formed successively within 40 hours in 2010.Over the next several days afterwards,these TCs exhibited unusual movements which made operational prediction difficult.Verifications are performed on the forecasts of the tracks of these TCs with six operational models,including three global and three regional models.Results showed that the trends of TC tracks could be reproduced by these models,whereas trajectory turning points and landfall locations were not simulated effectively.The special track of Lionrock should be associated with its direct interaction with Namtheun,according to a conceptual model of binary TC interaction.By contrast,the relation between Kompasu and Namtheun satisfied the criteria for a semi-direct interaction.Numerical experiments based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-tropical Cyclone forecast Model(GRAPES-TCM) further confirmed the effect of Namtheun on the unusual tracks of Lionrock and Kompasu.Finally,the physical mechanism of binary TC interaction was preliminarily proposed.

关键词： binary tropical cyclone interaction typhoon operat

ANALYSIS OF INDICES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF tropical CYCLONES IN JIANGSU

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2014年第4期20卷 368-375页

作者：杨程宋金杰王元曾明剑 Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather /MOE and School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences

By statistical research on the occurrence pattern of severe convective weather in Jiangsu province under the influence of tropical cyclones within a 10-year period(from 2001 to 2010),this paper discovers that among different severe convective weather,the occurrence frequency of short-range heavy precipitation is the highest,thunderstorms and gales come in second,and general thunderstorms rarely happen,while hailstorms and tornadoes never occur.The statistical results also showed that within the research period there are 21 tropical cyclones(TCs) affecting the Jiangsu area and most of them are in the stage of weakening to tropical depressions.Moreover,through studying indices for relevant cases of severe convection,it is discovered that their thresholds are lower than that of previous research,which indicated that convective instability and energy accumulation can easily lead to severe convective weather eventually due to the influence of TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclones severe convection statistics