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Frequency–magnitude of landslides affected by the 27–29 November 2017 tropical Cyclone Cempaka in Pacitan, East Java

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Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第4期17卷 773-786页

作者： SAMODRA Guruh NGADISIH Ngadisih MALAWANI Mukhamad Ngainul MARDIATNO Djati CAHYADI Ahmad NUGROHO Ferman Setia Disaster Research Centre(PSBA) Universitas Gadjah MadaYogyakarta 55281Indonesia Laboratory of Environmental Geomorphology and Disaster Mitigation Faculty of GeographyUniversitas Gadjah MadaYogyakarta 55281Indonesia Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering Faculty of Agricultural TechnologyUniversitas Gadjah MadaYogyakarta 55281Indonesia Laboratory of Hydrology and Environmental Climatology Faculty of GeographyUniversitas Gadjah MadaYogyakarta 55281Indonesia Remote Sensing Ground Station Parepare Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and SpaceSulawesi Selatan 91112Indonesia

tropical cyclone(TC) Cempaka which occurred on 27–29 November 2017 has caused floods, landslides, and strong winds in certain areas of Java Island. Pacitan Regency was the most severely affected by TC Cempaka. The landslide frequency–area distribution curve of event inventory i.e. TC Cempaka can help to understand landslide susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability, and risk. Landslides were identified by using a local government database and by comparing pre-and post-event high-resolution satellite imageries. Field investigation was carried out in March 2018 to November 2018 to verify the landslide location and update the information. Power law, inverse gamma, and double Pareto model were employed to describe the frequency–magnitude of landslide(mLS) triggered by TC Cempaka. The exponent β values of power law, inverse gamma, and double Pareto were 2.6±0.28(fitted for 8.5% of dataset), 2.2±0.08(fitted for 83% of dataset), and 2.3±0.09(best fitted for dataset), respectively. The P-values were 0.51, 0.67, and 0.91 for power law, inverse gamma, and double Pareto, respectively. This study revealed that rollover occurred at 200 and 300 m2 for double Pareto and inverse gamma, respectively. The cutoff points totaled 1096.49 ± 236.44 and 7235.4 ± 1896.7 m2 for double Pareto and power law, respectively. Rollover phenomenon was real and existed in the dataset because it was far from the minimum resolvable size of the landslide that the authors can delineate from the satellite images. mLS for Pacitan was distributed at around 2 to 4. The magnitude of large landslides was 3.2, that of medium landslides was less than 3, and that of small landslides was almost 4. Numerical estimation calculated a fixed mLS=3.01. Comparison analysis of β values obtained from several landslide inventories triggered by heavy rainfall suggests that the variability of β is related to the intensity and duration of rainfall. Triggering events, such as intensity and duration of rainfall, affect the proportion of large landslides that occur in an area. Mor

关键词： Landslide tropical cyclone Landslide magnitude Frequency distribution Area distribution Pacitan Regency

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Surface Rainfall Processes during the Genesis Period of tropical Cyclone Durian(2001)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第4期36卷 451-464页

作者： Yaping WANG Yongjie HUANG Xiaopeng CUI Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

The rainfall processes during the formation of tropical cyclone(TC) Durian(2001) were investigated quantitatively using the three-dimensional(3 D) WRF-based precipitation equation. The rain rate(PS) decreased slightly as the TC approached to formation, and then increased as Durian began to intensify. The rate of moisture-related processes(QWV) in the equation contributed around 80% to PSbefore TC genesis, and made more contribution during and after TC genesis. The rate of hydrometeor-related processes(QCM) contributed about 20% before TC formation, followed by less contribution during and after TC formation. QWVwere dominated by the 3 D moisture flux advection rate(QWVA), while the surface evaporation rate(QWVE) also played an important role. Just before TC genesis, moisture from QWVAand QWVEhelped the local atmosphere moisten(negative QWVL). QCMwere determined by the 3 D hydrometeor advection rates(QCLAand QCIA) and the local change rates of hydrometeors(QCLLand QCIL). During TC formation, QCMlargely decreased and then reactivated as Durian began to intensify, accompanied by the development of TC cloud. Both the height and the strength of the net latent heating center associated with microphysical processes generally lowered before and during TC genesis, resulting mainly from lessening deposition and condensation. The downward shift of the net latent heating center induced a more bottom-heavy upward mass flux profile, suggesting to promote lower-tropospheric convergence in a shallower layer, vorticity amplification and TC spin-up.

关键词： surface rainfall processes tropical cyclone formation three-dimensional precipitation equation latent heating

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Effect of the Vertical Diffusion of Moisture in the Planetary Boundary Layer on an Idealized tropical Cyclone

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1889-1904页

作者： Hongxiong XU Dajun ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Previous numerical studies have focused on the combined effect of momentum and scalar eddy diffusivity on the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones.The separate impact of eddy diffusivity estimated by planetary boundary layer(PBL)parameterization on the tropical cyclones has not yet been systematically examined.We have examined the impacts of eddy diffusion of moisture on idealized tropical cyclones using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Yonsei University PBL scheme.Our results show nonlinear effects of moisture eddy diffusivity on the simulation of idealized tropical cyclones.Increasing the eddy diffusion of moisture increases the moisture content of the PBL,with three different effects on tropical cyclones:(1)an decrease in the depth of the PBL;(2)an increase in convection in the inner rain band and eyewall;and(3)drying of the lowest region of the PBL and then increasing the surface latent heat flux.These three processes have different effects on the intensity and structure of the tropical cyclone through various physical mechanisms.The increased surface latent heat flux is mainly responsible for the decrease in pressure.Results show that moisture eddy diffusivity has clear effects on the pressure in tropical cyclones,but contributes little to the intensity of wind.This largely influences the wind-pressure relationship,which is crucial in tropical cyclones simulation.These results improve our understanding of moisture eddy diffusivity in the PBL and its influence on tropical cyclones,and provides guidance for interpreting the variation of moisture in the PBL for tropical cyclone simulations.

关键词： tropical cyclones moisture eddy diffusivity boundary layer wind-pressure relationship

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The response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone Viyaru over the Bay of Bengal

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第1期38卷 61-70页

作者： Mir Kashem Md Kawser Ahmed Fangli Qiao M A E Akhter K M Azam Chowdhury Department of Oceanography University of Dhaka First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources Department of Physics Khulna University of Engineering & Technology

Better forecast of tropical cyclone(TC) can help to reduce risk and enhance management. The TC forecast depends on the scientific understanding of oceanic processes, air-sea interaction and finally, the atmospheric process. The TC Viyaru is taken as an example, which is formed at the end of 11 May 2013 and sustains up to 17 May 2013 during pre-monsoon season. Argo data are used to investigate ocean response processes by comparing pre-and post-conditions of the TC. Eight oceanic parameters including the sea surface temperature(SST), the sea surface salinity(SSS), and the barrier layer thickness(BLT), the 26°C isotherm depth in the ocean(D26), the isothermal layer depth(ILD), the mixed layer depth(MLD), the tropical cyclone heat potential(TCHP) and the effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis(EOLC) are chosen to evaluate the pre-and post-conditions of the TC along the track of Viyaru. The values of the SST, D26, BLT, TCHP and EOLC in the pre-cyclonic condition are higher than the post-cyclonic condition, while the SSS, ILD and MLD in the post-cyclonic condition are higher than the pre-cyclonic condition of the ocean due to strong cyclonic winds and subsurface upwelling. It is interesting that the strong intensity of the TC reduces less SST and vice versa. The satisfied real time Argo data is not available in the northern Bay of Bengal especially in the coastal region. A weather research and forecasting model is employed to hindcast the track of Viyaru, and the satellite data from the National Center Environmental Prediction are used to assess the hindcast.

关键词： effective oceanic layer for cyclogenesis, sea surface temperature tropical cyclone tropical cyclone heat potential tropical cyclone viyaru weather research and forecasting model

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Urban effects and summer thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone affected situation over Guangzhou city

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Science China Earth Sciences 2007年第12期50卷 1867-1876页

作者： MENG WeiGuang1,3,YAN JingHua1 & HU HaiBo2 1 Institute of tropical and Marine Meteorology,Chinese Meteorological Administration(CMA),Guangzhou 510080,China 2 Institute of Urban Meteorology,CMA,Beijing 100089,China 3 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China Institute of tropical and Marine Meteorology Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) Guangzhou China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China Institute of Urban Meteorology CMA Beijing China

With data mainly from Guangzhou mesonet Automatic Weather Stations(AWS),Guangzhou Doppler Radar and satellite TBB data,characteristics and evolution of the urban heat island(UHI) over Guang-zhou City were analyzed in a tropical cyclone affected situation for early August 2005.In particular,two thunderstorms occurring during this period respectively at the night of 4 August and in the afternoon of 7 August were investigated to study the relationships between the development of thunderstorms and the UHI.Results showed that two thunderstorms were associated with the UHI effects.UHI induced local air convergence and initiated the thunderstorm convections.Both cases showed a general agreement in time and space for the locations of maximum UHI,convergence,convection,and pre-cipitation.Convection was found to be more favorable to developing in time periods and locations with stronger intensity of UHI.Analysis also showed that,due to the urban effects,both thunderstorms got strengthened when moving over Guangzhou City,with maximum radar echoes observed right over the urban area and precipitation located within the city.All these features reveal that two thunderstorms were urban-induced storms.

关键词： summer thunderstorms, urban heat islands (UHI), urban effects, tropical cyclone

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Asymmetric response of the eastern tropical Indian SST to climate warming and cooling

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第5期38卷 76-85页

作者： Shan Xu Yiyong Luo Fukai Liu College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean SST asymmetry climate warming climate cooling negative SST skewness

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Effect of Initial Vortex Intensity Correction on tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction:A Study Based on GRAPES_TYM

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 387-399页

作者： Liwen WANG Suhong MA Key Laboratory for Aerosol–Cloud–Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration School of Atmospheric PhysicsNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)is challenging in operational weather prediction systems,partly due to the difficulty in defining the initial vortex.In an attempt to solve this problem,this study investigated the effect of initial vortex intensity correction on the prediction of the intensity of TCs by the operational numerical prediction system GRAPES_TYM(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System_Typhoon Model)of the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration.The statistical results based on experiments using data for major TCs in 2018 show that initial vortex intensity correction can reduce the errors in mean intensity for up to 120-h integration,with a noticeable decrease in the negative bias of intensity and a slight increase in the mean track error.The correction leads to an increase in the correlation coefficient of Vmax(maximum wind speed at 10-m height)for the severe typhoon and super typhoon stages.Analyses of the errors in intensity at different stages of intensity(including tropical storms,severe tropical storms,typhoons,severe typhoons,and super typhoons)show that vortex intensity correction has a remarkable positive influence on the prediction of super typhoons from 0 to 120h.Analyses of the errors in intensity for TCs with different initial intensities indicate that initial vortex correction can significantly improve the prediction of intensity from 24 to 96 h for weak TCs(including tropical storms and severe tropical storms at the initial time)and up to 24 h for strong TCs(including severe typhoons and super typhoons at the initial time).The effect of the initial vortex intensity correction is more important for developing TCs than for weakening TCs.

关键词： vortex intensity correction intensity bias intensity error tropical cyclones

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Biomass increment and mortality losses in tropical secondary forests of Hainan, China

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Journal of Forestry Research 2019年第2期30卷 647-655页

作者： Junfu Zhao Chunsheng He Chunlin Qi Xu Wang Haiyan Deng Chunxin Wang Haiwei Liu Lianyan Yang Zhenghong Tan Institute of tropical Agriculture and Forestry Hainan University National Natural Reserve of Diaoluoshan

Secondary forests, created after heavy logging,are an important part of China's forests. We investigated forest biomass and its accumulation rate in 38 plots in a tropical secondary forest on Hainan Island. These secondary forests are moderate carbon sinks, averaging1.96–2.17 t C ha-1 a-1. Biomass increment is largely by medium-sized(10–35 m) trees. Tree mortality accounts for almost 30% of the biomass and plays a negligible role in biomass accumulation estimates. Mortality rate is highly dependent on tree size. For small trees and seedlings, it is related to competition due to elevated irradiance after logging. Regarding prospective biomass and rates of accumulation, recovery is not as rapid as in secondary forests of cleared land. Therefore, tropical forests are susceptible to logging operations and need careful forest management.

关键词： tropical secondary forest management Carbon sink Inventory Dynamic plot Logging

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Assessment of causes and future deforestation in the mountainous tropical forest of Timor Island, Indonesia

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第10期16卷 2215-2231页

作者： PUJIONO Eko SADONO Ronggo HARTONO IMRON Muhammad Ali Faculty of Forestry Universitas Gadjah MadaJl.Agro No.1Yogyakarta55281Indonesia Faculty of Geography Universitas Gadjah MadaSekip UtaraJl.KaliurangYogyakarta55281Indonesia Environment and Forestry Research and Development Institute of Kupang Ministry of Environment and ForestryJl.Alfons Nisnoni No.7BKupang85119Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,one of the remaining mountainous tropical forest areas in Timor Island,eastern Indonesia that covers an area of 31,984 ha,tends to decrease gradually.Efforts to secure mountain forest functions and counteract the negative impact of declining forest areas are often constrained by data uncertainty on factors contributing to deforestation.For this reason,this study attempts to develop models of deforestation and predict future deforestation in the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex.We constructed models of deforestation that describe the relationship between deforestation and factors contributing to deforestation using spatial statistical models.In this model,we used the deforestation data for the 1987-2017 period obtained from a previous study as dependent variables and the potential causes of deforestation generated from Geographic Information System spatial analysis as independent variables.Using the probability of deforestation derived from the model,we predicted future deforestation under two different scenarios,namely,business-as-usual(as the reference scenario)and reducing emission fromdeforestation and forest degradation.Our findings showed that a positive relationship exists between probability of deforestation,distance to the settlement,and population density variables,whereas a negative relationship exists between likelihood of deforestation,elevation,slope,distance to the road,distance to the savanna,and forest management unit variables.During the 2017-2030 period,under the business-as-usual scenario,the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex will lose 1327.65 ha in forest area with an annual deforestation rate of 0.54%.Meanwhile,under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario,the overall forest loss was estimated to be 1237.11 ha with an annual deforestation rate of 0.50%.The predicted area of avoided deforestation in 2017-2030 under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario was 90.54 ha.Such data and information are important for

关键词： Mountainous tropical forest Deforestation Spatial statistical model Geographic information system Reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation

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Estimating the Predictability Limit of tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第12期35卷 1491-1504页

作者： Quanjia ZHONG Lifeng ZHANG Jianping LI Ruiqiang DING Jie FENG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense Technology College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences Beijing Normal University School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma

In this study,the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific(WNP)basin is about 102 h,and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h.The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-,medium-,and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h,120 h,and 132 h,respectively.The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location,lifetime,and intensity,and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related.The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP(EWNP),whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP(WWNP)and the South China Sea(SCS).The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs,which are generated mainly in the EWNP,have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS.Furthermore,the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available.Further work is needed,employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.

关键词： predictability tropical cyclone tracks nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

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