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trend analysis of noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors in Afghanistan

慢性疾病与转化医学:英文版 2023年第3期9卷 210-221页

作者： Narges Neyazi Ali Mohammad Mosadeghrad Maryam Tajvar Najibullah Safi International Campus School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Health System Development World Health OrganizationKabulAfghanistan Department of Health Management Policy and EconomicsSchool of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Background:Afghanistan is suffering from 40-year chronic conflicts,displacement,and demolition of its infrastructure.Afghanistan mortality survey 2010 shows nearly 46%of all deaths in the country were attributed to noncommunicable diseases(NCDs).In this study,we aimed to understand the differences in mortality and premature death due to NCDs by sex and the trend for the next 8 years.Methods:We applied trend analysis using the secondary data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation,Global Burden of Diseases 2019.The information on NCD mortality,NCD deaths attributed to its risk factors,NCD percent of total years lived with disability(YLDs)attribution to each risk factor extracted from this database from 2008 to 2019.We investigated the trend from 2008 to 2019 for the mentioned factors and then forecast their trends until 2030.Results:Our study shows that Afghanistan has had an increasing death number due to NCDs from 2008 to 2019(50%for both sexes)and this will reach nearly 54%by 2030.Currently,half of NCDs deaths are premature in Afghanistan.The mortality rate and prevalence of risk factors are higher among women.More than 70%of YLDs will be due to NCDs in Afghanistan till 2030.Five risk factors including high systolic blood pressure(28.3%),high body mass index(23.4%),high blood glucose(20.6%),high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(16.3%),and smoking(12.3%)will have the highest contribution to NCDs death in 2030,respectively.Conclusions:In general,our study indicates that without any specific intervention to address NCDs in Afghanistan,not only the Sustainable Development Goal target for NCDs will not be met,but an increase in almost all risk factors prevalence,as well as NCD mortality,will be seen in Afghanistan.

关键词： Afghanistan crises control and prevention noncommunicable diseases risk factors targets trend analysis

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Detection of critical road roughness sections by trend analysis and investigation of driver speed interaction

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Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2022年第4期16卷 515-532页

作者： Meltem SAPLIOGLU Ayse UNAL Melek BOCEK Department of Civil Engineering Suleyman Demirel UniversityIsparta 32260Turkey Department of Civil Engineering Siirt UniversitySiirt 56100Turkey

Pavement roughness(IRI—International Roughness Index values)influence the stability of traffic movements both on intercity roads and urban roads.This study is to determine the exact locations of critical pavement roughness values that affect traffic motion stability and comfort in city centre highway arteries.Roughness data with 10 m intervals were collected on a 3140 m divided road containing three consecutive signalized intersections in the city centre arterial.These data were analysed using the distance-dependent Mann-Kendall trend analysis method and checkerboard model.The sections where roughness is important were determined at a 95%confidence interval.The results will show where future pavement improvements should be prioritized for municipalities and road maintenance engineers and will form a basis for the urban road management system.

关键词： trend analysis checkerboard model IRI driver speed

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Colorectal cancer’s burden attributable to a diet high in processed meat in the Belt and Road Initiative countries

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology 2024年第1期16卷 182-196页

作者： Gu Liu Chang-Min Li Fei Xie Qi-Lai Li Liang-Yan Liao Wen-Jun Jiang Xiao-Pan Li Guan-Ming Lu Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery The First Affiliated HospitalJinan UniversityGuangzhou 510630Guangdong ProvinceChina Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery Chenzhou Third People’s HospitalChenzhou 423000Hunan ProvinceChina Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery Chenzhou First People’s Hospital and the First Affiliated Hospital of Xiangnan UniversityChenzhou423000 Hunan ProvinceChina Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery the Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University for NationalitiesBaise 533000Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous RegionChina Department of Health Management Center Zhongshan HospitalShanghai Medical College of Fudan UniversityShanghai 200032China

BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)plays a significant role in morbidity,mortality,and economic cost in the Belt and Road Initiative(“B and R”)countries.In addition,these countries have a substantial consumption of processed meat.However,the burden and trend of CRC in relation to the consumption of a diet high in processed meat(DHPM-CRC)in these“B and R”countries remain unknown.AIM To analyze the burden and trend of DHPM-CRC in the“B and R”countries from 1990 to 2019.METHODS We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study to collate information regarding the burden of DHPM-CRC.Numbers and age-standardized rates(ASRs)of deaths along with the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were determined among the“B and R”countries in 1990 and 2019.Using joinpoint regression analysis,the average annual percent change(AAPC)was used to analyze the temporal trends of age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDALR)from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade(2010–2019).RESULTS We found geographical differences in the burden of DHPM-CRC among“B and R”countries,with the three highest-ranking countries being the Russian Federation,China,and Ukraine in 1990,and China,the Russian Federation,and Poland in 2019.The burden of DHPM-CRC generally increased in most member countries from 1990 to 2019(all Ptrend in ASR of mortality,years lived with disability,years of life lost,and DALYs from DHPM-CRC changes in 1990-2019 and the final decade(2010-2019)for most Maritime Silk Route memb

关键词： Belt and Road Initiative countries Colorectal cancer Burden of disease Dietary risk factors Processed meat Disability-adjusted life years trend analysis

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A gated recurrent unit model to predict Poisson’s ratio using deep learning

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2024年第1期16卷 123-135页

作者： Fahd Saeed Alakbari Mysara Eissa Mohyaldinn Mohammed Abdalla Ayoub Ibnelwaleed A.Hussein Ali Samer Muhsan Syahrir Ridha Abdullah Abduljabbar Salih Petroleum Engineering Department Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS32610Bandar Seri IskandarPerakMalaysia Institute of Hydrocarbon Recovery Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS32610Bandar Seri IskandarPerakMalaysia Gas Processing Center College of EngineeringQatar UniversityP.O.Box 2713DohaQatar Department of Chemical Engineering College of EngineeringQatar UniversityP.O.Box 2713DohaQatar Mechanical Engineering Department Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS32610Bandar Seri IskandarPerakMalaysia

Static Poisson’s ratio(vs)is crucial for determining geomechanical properties in petroleum applications,namely sand production.Some models have been used to predict vs;however,the published models were limited to specific data ranges with an average absolute percentage relative error(AAPRE)of more than 10%.The published gated recurrent unit(GRU)models do not consider trend analysis to show physical behaviors.In this study,we aim to develop a GRU model using trend analysis and three inputs for predicting n s based on a broad range of data,n s(value of 0.1627-0.4492),bulk formation density(RHOB)(0.315-2.994 g/mL),compressional time(DTc)(44.43-186.9 μs/ft),and shear time(DTs)(72.9-341.2μ s/ft).The GRU model was evaluated using different approaches,including statistical error an-alyses.The GRU model showed the proper trends,and the model data ranges were wider than previous ones.The GRU model has the largest correlation coefficient(R)of 0.967 and the lowest AAPRE,average percent relative error(APRE),root mean square error(RMSE),and standard deviation(SD)of 3.228%,1.054%,4.389,and 0.013,respectively,compared to other models.The GRU model has a high accuracy for the different datasets:training,validation,testing,and the whole datasets with R and AAPRE values were 0.981 and 2.601%,0.966 and 3.274%,0.967 and 3.228%,and 0.977 and 2.861%,respectively.The group error analyses of all inputs show that the GRU model has less than 5% AAPRE for all input ranges,which is superior to other models that have different AAPRE values of more than 10% at various ranges of inputs.

关键词： Static Poisson’s ratio Deep learning Gated recurrent unit(GRU) Sand control trend analysis Geomechanical properties

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analysis of groundwater level trend in Jakham River Basin of Southern Rajasthan

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Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering 2022年第1期10卷 1-9页

作者： Vinay Kumar Gautam Mahesh Kothari P.K.Singh S.R.Bhakar K.K.Yadav Department of Soil and Water Engineering CTAEMPUATUdaipur-313001(Raj.)India

Groundwater accounts for about half of the water use for irrigation in India.The fluctuation pattern of the groundwater level is examined by observing rainfall replenishment and monitoring wells.The southern part of Rajasthan has experienced abrupt changes in rainfall and has been highly dependent on groundwater over decades.This study presents the impact of over-dependence on groundwater usage for irrigation and other purposes,spatially and temporally.Hence,the objective of this study is to examine the groundwater level trend by using statistical analysis and geospatial technique.Rainfall factor was also studied in groundwater level fluctuation during 2009-2019.To analyze the influence of each well during recharge or withdrawal of groundwater,thiessien polygonswere generated from them.In the Jakham River basin,75 wells have been identified for water level trend study using the Mann-Kendall statistical test.The statistics of trend analysis show that 15%wells are experiencing water level decline in pre-monsoon,while very low percentage of wells have such trend during post-monsoon season.The average rate of water level decline is 0.245 m/a in pre-monsoon and 0.05 m/a in post-monsoon.The aquifer recharge potential is also decreasing by year.it is expected that such type of studies will help the policy makers to adopt advanced management practices to ensure sustainable groundwater resource management.

关键词： Groundwater trend analysis Rainfall Kendal tau Slope p value Recharge Pre-and postmonsoon

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Image texture indices and trend analysis for forest disturbance assessment under wood harvest regimes

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Journal of Forestry Research 2021年第2期32卷 579-587页

作者： Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny Malihe Erfani Afshin Danehkar Vahid Etemad Department of Environmental Science Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural ResourcesGorgānIran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural ResourcesUniversity of ZabolZabolIran Department of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Natural ResourcesUniversity of TehranTehranIran Department of Forestry and Forest Economics Faculty of Natural ResourcesUniversity of TehranTehranIran

Effective disturbance indices for Hyrcanian forests in Kheyroud,Nowshahr,Iran were determined.The study area was divided into landscape mosaics based on ecosystem parameters including profile type,slope and elevation.Co-occurrence texture indices were derived as forest disturbance factors on the first five bands of Landsat TM,ETM+and OLI images for the prevailing wood harvest disturbance regimes.These indices were screened using ten types of trend analyses and used for modeling disturbance of the harvesting regime through artificial neural networks.The results show that the selected indices can be useful in distinguishing areas with different disturbance intensities and as such,used in the context of health assessment through the health distance method.The accuracy of the health maps derived from the indices[increasing disturbance]led to give rise higher disturbance classification accuracy.

关键词： Ecosystem health Disturbance trend analysis Co-occurrence texture indices Landscape mosaics

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Influence of non-stationarity and auto-correlation of climatic records on spatio-temporal trend and seasonality analysis in a region with prevailing arid and semi-arid climate,Iran

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Journal of Arid Land 2020年第6期12卷 964-983页

作者： Mahsa MIRDASHTVAN Mohsen MOHSENI SARAVI Department of Range and Watershed Management Faculty of Natural ResourcesCollege of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesUniversity of TehranKaraj ***Iran

trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.

关键词： climate change trend analysis stationarity tests serial correlation seasonality arid and semi-arid regions

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Comparative analysis of Climatic Change trend and Change-Point analysis for Long-Term Daily Rainfall Annual Maximum Time Series Data in Four Gauging Stations in Niger Delta

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Open Journal of Modern Hydrology 2023年第4期13卷 229-245页

作者： Masi G. Sam Ify L. Nwaogazie Chiedozie Ikebude Jonathan O. Irokwe Diaa W. El Hourani Ubong J. Inyang Bright Worlu Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Port Harcourt Port Harcourt Nigeria Center for Occupational Health Safety and Environment University of Port Harcourt Port Harcourt Nigeria

The aim of this study is to establish the prevailing conditions of changing climatic trends and change point dates in four selected meteorological stations of Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Using daily or 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) data with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the modified Chowdury Indian Meteorological Department (MCIMD) models were adopted to downscale the time series data. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) test showed a statistically significant trend for Uyo and Benin, while Port Harcourt and Warri showed mild trends. The Sen’s Slope magnitude and variation rate were 21.6, 10.8, 6.00 and 4.4 mm/decade, respectively. The trend change-point analysis showed the initial rainfall change-point dates as 2002, 2005, 1988, and 2000 for Uyo, Benin, Port Harcourt, and Warri, respectively. These prove positive changing climatic conditions for rainfall in the study area. Erosion and flood control facilities analysis and design in the Niger Delta will require the application of Non-stationary IDF modelling.

关键词： Rainfall Time Series Data Climate Change trend analysis Variation Rate Change Point Dates Non-Parametric Statistical Test

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The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Meteorological Disasters in the Southwest Region of Zhejiang Province during 1953-2022

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第3期12卷 16-27页

作者： Qi Zhang Yifan Wang Zhidan Zhu Hongxia Shi Wenhao Yang Shujie Yuan Longyou Meteorological Administration Quzhou China School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu China

Meteorological disasters are some of the most serious and costly natural disasters, which have larger effects on economic and social activity. Liuchun Lake is an ecotourism area in the southwest region of Zhejiang province, where also has experienced meteorological disasters including rainstorm and cold wave. Understanding the temporal-spatial characteristics of meteorological disasters is important for the local tourism and economic development. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation from 18 meteorological stations in the southwest of Zhejiang province during 1953-2022 and some statistical approaches, the temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological disasters (Freezing, Rainstorm, Cold wave) are analyzed. The results indicate that 1) Rainstorm occurred frequently around the Liuchun lake, the frequency was about 8 times/a, it can also reach about 3 times/a in the other region. Freezing and cold wave (including strong cold wave and extremely cold wave) had the same spatial distribution as rainstorm, however, except for Liuchun lake, they occurred less than one time in the other regions;2) The trend of rainstorm had larger spatial difference, it increased in all the study area, but it increased more significantly around the study area than around Liuchun lake. Freezing was on the downtrend in the whole region, with 93.3% of the stations passed the 95% significant level. Cold wave also showed a declined trend, but it was insignificantly at most of the stations, only 33% of the stations passed the 90% significant level. Compared with cold wave, strong cold wave and extremely strong cold wave had weaker decline in all the regions. In general, from 1953 to 2022 rainstorm showed an increasing trend, it was the main meteorological disaster in the study area, cold wave displayed a decreasing trend, but it still occurred about 2 - 3 times/a in most regions.

关键词： Southwest of Zhejiang Province Rainstorm Cold Wave Spatial Distribution trend analysis

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Evaluation of Rainfall Tendency for the Twentieth Century over Indira Sagar Region in Central India

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American Journal of Climate Change 2024年第1期13卷 47-68页

作者： Rituraj Shukla Deepak Khare Ramesh P. Rudra Priti Tiwari Himanshu Sharma Prasad Daggupati Pradeep Goel School of Engineering University of Guelph Guelph Canada Department of Water Resources Development and Management Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee India Indira Gandhi Agricultural University Raipur India Department of Civil Engineering Institute of Infrastructure Technology Research and Management (IITRAM) Ahmedabad India

The study investigates long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns in the Indira Sagar Region of Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1901 to 2010. Agriculture sustainability, food supply, natural resource development, and hydropower system reliability in the region rely heavily on monsoon rainfall. Monthly rainfall data from three stations (East Nimar, Barwani, and West Nimar) were analyzed. Initially, the pre-whitening method was applied to eliminate serial correlation effects from the rainfall data series. Subsequently, statistical trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were assessed using both parametric (student-t test) and non-parametric tests [Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Cumulative Sum (CUSUM)]. The magnitude of the rainfall trend was determined using Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Spatial analysis of the Mann-Kendall test on an annual basis revealed a statistically insignificant decreasing trend for Barwani and East Nimar and an increasing trend for West Nimar. On a seasonal basis, the monsoon season contributes a significant percentage (88.33%) to the total annual rainfall. The CUSUM test results indicated a shift change detection in annual rainfall data for Barwani in 1997, while shifts were observed in West and East Nimar stations in 1929. These findings offer valuable insights into regional rainfall behavior, aiding in the planning and management of water resources and ecological systems.

关键词： Precipitation Parametric Non-Parametric Tests trend analysis Serial Correlations

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