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Hurst’s Memory for Chaotic, tree ring, and SOI Series

Applied Mathematics 2014年第1期5卷 175-195页

作者： Byung-Sik Kim Hung-Soo Kim Sun-Hong Min Department of Civil Engineering Inha University Incheon South Korea Department of Urban Environmental Prevention Engineering School of Disaster Prevention Kangwon National University Gangwon South Korea

Hurst’s memory that roots in early work of the British hydrologist H.E. Hurst remains an open problem in stochastic hydrology. Today, the Hurst analysis is widely used for the hydrological studies for the memory and characteristics of time series and many methodologies have been developed for the analysis. So, there are many different techniques for the estimation of the Hurst exponent (H). However, the techniques can produce different characteristics for the persistence of a time series each other. This study uses several techniques such as adjusted range, rescaled range (RR) analysis, modified rescaled range (MRR) analysis, 1/f power spectral density analysis, Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), detrended fluctuations analysis (DFA), and aggregated variance time (AVT) method for the Hurst exponent estimation. The generated time series from chaos and stochastic systems are analyzed for the comparative study of the techniques. Then, this study discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the techniques and also the limitations of them. We found that DFA is the most appropriate technique for the Hurst exponent estimation for both the short term memory and long term memory. We analyze the SOI (Southern Oscillations Index) and 6 tree-ring series for USA sites by means of DFA and the BDS statistic is used for nonlinearity test of the series. From the results, we found that SOI series is nonlinear time series which has a long term memory of H = 0.92. Contrary to earlier work, all the tree ring series are not random from our analysis. A certain tree ring series show a long term memory of H = 0.97 and nonlinear property. Therefore, we can say that the SOI series has the properties of long memory and nonlinearity and tree ring series could also show long memory and non-linearity.

关键词： Hurst’s Memory DFA Chaotic Series tree-ring Series SOI BDS Statistic

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Temperature variations recovered from tree-rings in the middle Qilian Mountain over the last millennium

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第4期48卷 521-529页

作者： LIU Xiaohong1,2, QIN Dahe1, SHAO Xuemei , CHEN Tuo1 & REN Jiawen12 1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China 2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Based on the cross-dated tree-ring samples collected from the middle Qilian Moun- tain, a standard ring-width chronology had been developed, which covered the period AD 1000 to 2000. The correlations between the chronology and climatic records from the nearby meteorological stations indicated that temperature was the dominant climatic factor for tree growth at upper timberline, and the most important climatic factor for the tree growth in the area was the mean temperature from previous December to current April. The temperature variations recovered from the ring-width data showed a cold period during the “Little Ice Age” and the con- tinuous warming during the twentieth century. Comparison between the ring-width chronology and δ18O records from the Dunde ice core in the Qilian Mountain indicated that there was a con- sistent trend in both time series. A significant correlation existed between our ring-width chro- nology and the Northern Hemispheric temperature, suggesting that the climate changes in the Qilian Mountain were not only driven by regional factors, but also responsive to the global cli- mate.

关键词： middle Qilian Mountain, tree-ring width chronology, temperature variations.

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Possible effect of solar activity on variation of the tree-rings of a 500 a platycladus orientalis at the Mausoleum of Emperor Huang

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2009年第4期52卷 631-639页

作者： FENG Bo1,2 & HAN YanBen1 1 Xi’an Institute of Posts & Telecommunications,Xi’an 710061,China 2 National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China Xi’an Institute of Posts & Telecommunications Xi’an China National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The variation of the tree-ring's index of a platycladus orientalis at the Mausoleum of Emperor Huang and of a long series of sunspots relative number during AD1470-1974 are analyzed by using the wavelet power spectrum method,and their variation characters are also discussed. It is determined that the tree-ring's variation has cycles of approximate 2-7,11,93 and 150 a. Two data series are used for analyzing sunspot relative number(SSN) variation. First,the analysis of the annual average SSN during AD1700-1974 proved that variation cycles are about 11,50,and 93 a; then,the data during AD1465-1975 obtained from the decadal average SSN train over 7000 a reconstructed on the geomagnetic data is analyzed and its variation cycles are about 50,90,and 160 a. Besides the tree-rings cycle of 2-7 a is commonly considered to be related to ENSO,while 11 a cycle is related to solar Schwabe cycle; in addition,it is possible that the cycles of 90 and150 a are likely to be related to solar Gleissberg cycle and Suess cycle. The correlations between them are possibly due to the effect of solar activity on the climate and additionally on the tree's growth.

关键词： tree-ring solar activity climate change wavelet spectrum

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Evidence of advancing spring xylem phenology in Chinese forests under global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第10期66卷 2187-2199页

作者： Huihong XUE Feng SHI Fabio GENNARETTI Yongshuo H.FU Bin HE Xiuchen WU Zhengtang GUO Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing100044China Institut de Recherche sur les Forêts Groupe de Recherche enÉcologie de la MRC-AbitibiUniversitédu Québec en Abitibi-TémiscamingueAmosJ9T 2L8Canada College of Water Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875China

Phenological responses of vegetation to the ongoing warming trend impact current and future primary ***,few studies focus on wood phenology because its observed data are much scarcer,which hinders the estimation and prediction of forest carbon budgets over large ***,we use a physiological process-based tree-ring growth model(Vaganov-Shashkin model)to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of spring xylem phenology(start of the growing season of xylem,SOS_(x))in tree-ring sites of China during 1962-2016 *** model is calibrated on measured tree-ring width chronologies(70 tree-ring chronologies)and successfully validated with field observations of *** found that spring xylem phenology significantly advances during 1962-2016 CE period under global warming,with the rate of advance quickly increasing after the 1990s to an average of 0.25 days per *** preseason daily mean temperature is the main climatic driver for spring xylem phenology as indicated by its significant correlations with SOS_(x)at most sites(71%).Warmer preseason allows heat requirements for tree growth to be reached more quickly,with increase of 1℃in temperature of preseason anticipates SOS_(x)by 6 to 7 days,which will benefit the radial growth of trees in the relatively cold-humid *** addition,the significant positive correlation between the simulated spring xylem phenology and remote sensing derived phenology highlights the primary and secondary growth may be governed by the same variable(temperature)and change in the same direction with global *** study provides the long-term perspective on the spring xylem phenology variations covering most of China.

关键词： tree-ring Xylem Phenology Vaganov-Shashkin model China

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A 1556 year-long early summer moisture reconstruction for the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第6期62卷 953-963页

作者： Bao YANG Jianglin WANG Jingjing LIU Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences

We report a 1556 year-long tree-ring width chronology for the Hexi Corridor, in the arid Northwestern China,established by applying the signal-free regional curve standardization method to 416 juniper ring-width series. We found that drought in early summer(May–June) is the primary controlling factor for tree growth in this area. We then developed an early summer moisture(i.e., scPDSI) reconstruction from 455 CE to present. Our reconstruction captures multi-centennial scale moisture variations, showing two long-term dry periods during 800–950 CE and 1000–1200 CE, and two long-term wet periods during 1200–1450 CE and 1510–1620 CE. We found strong similarities between hydroclimatic changes in the Hexi Corridor and Qaidam Basin from interannual to centennial timescales; however, at multi-centennial(>300 years) timescales, hydroclimatic variations in the two regions showed significant regional differences. The Hexi Corridor witnessed a generally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, here 800–1200 CE) and the drying 20 th century, whereas the Qaidam Basin experienced highprecipitation periods during the MCA and 20 th century. The different correlation pattern with Northern Hemisphere temperature suggest that the Qaidam Basin will receive more precipitation under global warming, whereas the Hexi Corridor will become dryer in the future.

关键词： Hexi Corridor tree-ring index Early-summer Hydroclimate reconstruction

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Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第7期48卷 939-949页

作者： SHAO Xuemei1, HUANG Lei1, LIU Hongbin2, LIANG Eryuan1, FANG Xiuqi3 & WANG Lili1 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China 3. Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Institute of Geographic Sciences Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Using seven well-replicated Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies developed at Zongwulong and Shalike Mts. in the northeastern part of the Qaidam Basin annual precipitation from previous July to current June in the recent 1000 years was re- constructed for Delingha. The reconstruction can capture 63.1% of precipitation variance and the equation was stable over time. For the reconstructed precipitation, wet periods occurred in AD1520—1633 and 1933—2001, whereas dry intervals in 1429—1519 and 1634—1741. In ad- dition, the magnitude in precipitation variation was lower before 1430 with about 15 mm, but it increased to 30 mm during the period of 1430 to 1850. After 1850, the precipitation variance de- creased again. In contrast to the increase in temperature, a decrease in annual precipitation was evident since the 1990s. The agreement in low-frequency variation between the reconstruction and the glacier accumulation and particulate content in Dunde ice cores during the recent several hundred years suggested that the precipitation reconstructed in this study was rather reliable, and represented a regional signal. This 1000-year reconstruction could benefit our understanding of climatic variation in decadal to century-scale in this region, and provide basic data to climate models and to prediction of future climate in the 21st century.

关键词： northeastern part of the Qaidam Basin tree-ring width series of Qilian juniper precipitation reconstruction in 1000 years.

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Different radial growth responses to climate warming by two dominant tree species at their upper altitudinal limit on Changbai Mountain

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Journal of Forestry Research 2017年第4期28卷 795-804页

作者： Liwen Zhuang Jan C. Axmacher Weiguo Sang Heilongjiang Forestry Academy of Sciences Harbin 150040People’s Republic of China UCL Department of Geography University College LondonPearson BuildingGower StreetLondon WC1E 6BTUK Minzu University of China Beijing 100081People’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100093People’s Republic of China

We analyzed the influence of climate change over the past 50 years on the radial growth of two tree species: Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Yezo spruce (Picea jezoensis), located on Changbai Mountain, Northeast China, using a dendrochronology approach to understand factors that limit the altitude for tree species. Elevated temperatures increased the radial growth of Korean pine and decreased that of Yezo spruce. The positive response of tree growth to hydrothermal conditions was the key reason that the upper limit of elevation of Korean pine followed the temperature fluctuation pattern. Increased temperatures and precipitation and longer growing seasons accelerated Korean pine growth. As the temperature increased, correlations between Korean pine ring-width chronology and precipitation changed from negative to positive. In Yezo spruce, increasing monthly temperatures and inadequate precipitation during the middle and late parts of the growing season led to narrow growth rings, whereas decreasing monthly temperatures and sufficient precipitation during the late growing season promoted growth. Rising temperatures and adequate precipitation increases Korean pine growth, possibly elevating the upper range limit in altitude for this species. In contrast, Yezo spruce growth is negatively affected by warming temperatures and limited precipitation. Under future temperature increases and precipitation fluctuations, the upper limit altitude of Korean pine can reasonably be expected to shift upward and Yezo spruce downward.

关键词： Climate change Picea jezoensis Pinus koraiensis tree-ring Upper altitudinal limit

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Temporal changes in nitrogen acquisition of Japanese black pine(Pinus thunbergii) associated with black locust(Robinia pseudoacacia)

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Journal of Forestry Research 2014年第3期25卷 585-589页

作者： M.L.Lopez C. C.Mizota Y.Nobori T.Sasaki T.Yamanaka Faculty of Agriculture Yamagata University1-23 Wakabamachi Tsuruoka Yamagata 997-8555 Japan Faculty of Agriculture Iwate University Division of Earth Science Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology Okayama University1-1 Naka 3-chome Tsushima Okayama Japan

The alien woody legume, black locust （Robinia pseudoaca-cia）, has invaded Japanese black pine （Pinus thunbergii） forests located in Japan’s coastal plain and hill regions where gaps are formed in pine forests after nematode infestation. Nitrogen fixation by legumes acceler-ates N cycling in forest ecosystems. We studied temporal change in the annual tree-ring resolution N stable isotope composition （δ15N, a per mil deviation of δ15N/14N ratio, relative to atmospheric N2δ15N=0‰） at two natural locations of Japanese black pine forest with black locust that differed in the time since black locust establishment （Shohnai in north-east and Kita-Kyushu in southwest Japan）. Analyzed tree-rings covered the period from 1990/1992 to 2009. N acquisition by Japanese black pine from black locust N input to the soil was evidenced by temporal shifting of N stable isotope composition on the annual pine tree rings. With pro-gressive development of the forest stand,δ15N values of earlier tree-ringsδ15N of -5‰） from black pine associated with black locust shifted to-wards values similar to those of black locustδ15N values nearly to-1‰）, which suggests acquisition of N by N2 fixation （Shohnai site）. In con-trast, in a forest where black locust had settled for two or three genera-tions, in a black pine stand （Kita-Kyushu site）, longer periods of N en-richment in the soil were reflected in the elevated tree-ringδ15N values of newly established black pine trees. Based on tree-ringδ15N data from the Shohnai site, we determined that about 10 years after black locust establishment, soil N had already been enriched by black locust N, this, in turn, contributed to N fertilization of surrounding trees in mixed stands.

关键词： δ15N natural abundance Japanese black pine black locust,nitrogen acquisition tree-ring

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Stem radial growth indicate the options of species,topography and stand management for artificial forests in the western Loess Plateau, China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2019年第3期11卷 226-238页

作者： ShengChun Xiao XiaoMei Peng QuanYan Tian Gong Zhu Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)LanzhouGansu 730000China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Landscape Engineering Department of South-North Mountain of Lanzhou City LanzhouGansu 730000China

An understanding of the differences in artificial forest between tree species,slope aspects,and management options in arid environments is fundamentally important for efficient management of these artificial systems;however,few studies have quantified the spatial and temporal differences in stem radial growth of trees in the arid western Loess Plateau of *** dendrochronology,we assessed the growth of three woody species(the native shrub Reaumuria soongorica,the exotic shrub Tamarix ramosissima and tree Platycladus orientalis)by measuring the annual stem radial *** also describe the long-term growth trends and responses to climatic factors on slopes with different aspects during periods with and without *** found that precipitation during the main growing season was significantly positively correlated with ring growth for all three species and both slope *** addition,supplemental water(e.g.,irrigation,rainwater harvesting)greatly relieved drought stress and promoted radial *** results suggest that as the main afforestation species in the Loess Plateau used for soil and water conservation,*** is more suitable than *** under rain-fed ***,a landscape that combined a tree(***)with a shrub(***)and grassland appears likely to represent the best means of ecological restoration in the arid western Loess Plateau.

关键词： dendroecology tree-ring artificial forest Loess Plateau

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Review of the studies on climate change since the last inter-glacial period on the Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2006年第3期16卷 337-345页

作者： LI Chaoliu KANG Shichang Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS Beijing 100085 China Joint Key Laboratory of Cryosphere and Environment Lanzhou 730000 China

As the ＂Third Pole＂ of the world, the Tibetan Plateau has important effects on climate of its surrounding areas and even the whole world. Many results have been achieved on climate change since the last inter-glacial period in recent decades from ice core, tree-ring and lake sediment records over the Tibetan Plateau. In this paper, we review these achievements, especially those in the special periods. During the last inter-glacial period, temperature went down rapidly and went up slowly. The temperature record of the last glacial period is consistent with Greenland ice core records, also having own features over the Tibetan Plateau. Younger Dryas event agrees with the records from Europe and Greenland. Generally speaking, it is warm in the Holocene, and temperature has been rising gradually in the last 2000 years and gone up rapidly in recent decades. Climate changes on different time scales on the Tibetan Plateau occurred earlier and the change amplitude is larger than those in other parts of China.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau climate change ice core tree-ring lake sediment

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