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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Live Birth in Infertile Women

Reproductive and Developmental Medicine 2019年第2期3卷 77-83页

作者： Meng Zhang Hai-Qing Tian Tao Bu Xia Li Xiao-Hui Wan Duo-Lao Wang Hua Xu Xin-Min Mao Qing-Li Wang Xiao-Lin La Reproductive Medicine Center The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityUrumqi 830054XinjiangChina Center of Statistics and Information The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical UniversityUrumqi 830054XinjiangChina Department of Clinical Sciences and International Public Health Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpool L693BXUnited Kingdom

Objective:To develop a nomogram to predict the probability of live birth on the basis of the association of patient characteristics in subfertile individuals or couples.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from January 2014 to December 2015.A nomogram was built from a training cohort and tested on an independent validation cohort.A total of 2,257 patients who had undergone their first nondonor cycle of in vitro fertilization(IVF)(including intracytoplasmic sperm injection)were randomly split 2:1 into training(n=1,527)and validation(n=730)cohorts.Results:There were no statistically significant differences in the patients’baseline and cycle characteristics between the training and validation cohorts.On multiple logistic regression analysis,female age,antral follicle count,tubal factor,anovulation,ethnicity,unexplained fertility,and male factor were significantly associated with live birth.The nomogram had a C-index of 0.700(95%confidence interval[CI]:0.698-0.701)in the training cohort and 0.684(95%CI:0.681-0.687)in the validation cohort.Conclusions:Our nomogram can predict the probability of live birth for infertile women and can be used to guide clinicians and couples to decide on an IVF treatment option.

关键词： In vitro Fertilization/Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Live Birth Rate Nomogram Predictive Model treatment outcome prediction

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