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Foreign Value-added in China's Manufactured Exports:Implications for China's trade imbalance

China & World Economy 2012年第1期20卷 27-48页

作者： Jun Zhang Dongbo Tang Yubo Zhan China Center for Economic Studies Fudan University Department of Economics Shanghai University

Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.

关键词： processing trade trade imbalance value-added vertical specialization

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trade imbalance

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Beijing Review 2017年第50期60卷 36-36页

作者： Wang Jun

The Office of the U.S. trade Representative （USTR） sub- mitted in mid-November a statement to the VVTO refusing to grant market economy status （MES） to China. The U.S. decision, which was made public on November 30, confirms that it holds the same po- sition as the EU of opposing China ＂automatically＇ obtaining MES. The USTR submitted the statement as a third-party brief in support of the EU. In December 2016, China brought a case against the EU because the latter refused to grant MES to China and continued using the surrogate country approach in its anti-dump- ing cases against China.

关键词： trade imbalance China-U.S, trade ties

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Structural Transformation under trade imbalances： The Case of the Postwar U.S.

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Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities 2017年第2期12卷 228-267页

作者： Zongye Huang International School of Economics and Management Capital University of Economics and Business Beijing 100070 China

A striking feature of the structural change literature is that, even though the U.S. economy is often used as a benchmark for calibration, the traditional mo- dels cannot account for the steep decline in manufacturing and rise in services in the U.S. since the late 1970s （Buera and Kaboski, 2009）. In order to solve this puzzle, this paper develops a three-sector model to evaluate various factors that could have contributed to the structural transformation process from 1950 to 2005. The results show that, in addition to traditional explanations, such as non-homothetic preference and sector-biased productivity progress, international trade is another major source of structural change and is able to explain about 35.5% of the overall employment share decrease in American manufacturing. The quantitative calibration estimates that the inter-sector trade makes a moderate contribution, while trade imbalances dominate the recent contraction of manufacturing employment share. Our results suggest that calibrated models based on U.S. data have to be adjusted by trade factors.

关键词： trade and structural change trade imbalance U.S. manufacture sector

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Understanding the China–US trade war:causes,economic impact,and the worst-case scenario

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Economic and Political Studies 2019年第2期7卷 185-202页

作者： Terence Tai Leung Chong Xiaoyang Li Department of Economics and Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina Department of Economics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina

This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical *** comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political *** trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic *** the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade *** this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.

关键词： trade war trade imbalance scenario analysis

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基于附加值贸易统计的中国对外贸易失衡研究

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统计与精算 2016年第3期 20-33页

作者：葛明林玲

基于最终消费品价值分解的视角，文章通过拓展附加值贸易统计模型，利用1995-2011年世界投入产数据库测度了中国附加值贸易失衡的规模大小、国别来源和行业结构，并与总值统计结果①比较分析发现：（1）中国单边贸易净额并没有发生变化... 详细信息

基于最终消费品价值分解的视角，文章通过拓展附加值贸易统计模型，利用1995-2011年世界投入产数据库测度了中国附加值贸易失衡的规模大小、国别来源和行业结构，并与总值统计结果①比较分析发现：（1）中国单边贸易净额并没有发生变化，2011年仅次于德国居世界第二位；（2）双边贸易失衡结构有所改善，中国与世界主要经济体的双边顺差或者逆差规模均大幅度下降，而最大顺差额仍来自美国；（3）外贸失衡主要来自基础产业和制造业部门，服务业部门失衡额较小但增长速度很快；从要素禀赋结构来看喜忧参半，劳动密集型行业顺差额大规模下降，而资本密集型行业大幅度上升，但知识密集型行业净额又有所减少。因而，促进外汇储备合理配置、深入调整外贸国别结构、持续推进行业转型升级等将有助于中国对外贸易环境和质量的改善。

关键词：全球价值链附加值贸易总值贸易贸易失衡 global value chain trade in value-added gross value of trade trade imbalance

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中美贸易非均衡影响因素实证研究—总体与电子产业比较

中美贸易非均衡影响因素实证研究—总体与电子产业比较

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作者：师麦克(Michael Steffens) 东华大学

学位级别：硕士

The US and China trade imbalance is a highly debated topic, and cause of trade conflict between the US and China. In Economic theory, trade imbalance is an issue that can arise because of a variety of issues, and can play both positively and negatively affect a countries economy. The ever increasing US and China trade imbalance has had both impacts on each country. One particularly strong area of the trade imbalance between the two is the electronics industry, which as of the year 2013 represented more than 45% of the total trade balance, the largest subsection of any industry. Despite large amounts of existing research on the causes of the overall bilateral trade imbalance, there is limited research examining trade balance at the industry *** order to fully understand the cause of both the overall trade balance, a unique and groundbreaking study was performed by analyzing both the overall trade balance as well as the largest subsection, the electronics industry simultaneously. Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression, macro economic factors such as the USD RMB Exchange Rate, China GDP, US GDP, and CPI difference were compared against the overall trade balance. At the Electronics Industry level, equivalent factors are used to analyze the balance with Exchange Rate, CPI difference, as well as China and the US’s Electronics Industry Gross *** results of the two separate analyses are then compared to each other, looking at how the macroeconomic factors interact at different levels. The results indicate that while at the overall trade balance level, factors such as CPI Difference the GDP of the US are extremely influential. At the Electronics Industry level, results indicate that China Electronics Industry Gross Production and Foreign Exchange rate play larger roles. With these results in mind, recommendations are made to both the US and Chinese governments for possible solutions.

关键词： Electronics Industry trade imbalance China America

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1861-1917茶叶贸易背景下的中俄关系

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中国近代史 2020年第11期

作者：刘再起弗·达旗升

19世纪下半叶至20世纪初期的中俄关系与茶叶贸易息息相关。可以说，在这段时期茶叶贸易是中俄关系的基础。俄国从中国进口的茶叶量占到了双边贸易总额的90％，茶叶贸易的扩大要求不断地解决中俄关系中出现的问题：一方面茶叶贸易保障了1... 详细信息

19世纪下半叶至20世纪初期的中俄关系与茶叶贸易息息相关。可以说，在这段时期茶叶贸易是中俄关系的基础。俄国从中国进口的茶叶量占到了双边贸易总额的90％，茶叶贸易的扩大要求不断地解决中俄关系中出现的问题：一方面茶叶贸易保障了19世纪下半叶中俄两国人民相对和睦的交往；另一方面，茶叶贸易导致了当时中俄双边贸易的严重失衡，引发沙俄对中国采取更加强硬的领土扩张政策。研究这一历史现象，对今天美国借口中美贸易失衡挑起中美贸易战也有一定的现实参考价值。

关键词：俄罗斯中国茶叶贸易贸易失衡中俄关系 Russia China tea trade trade imbalance the China-Russia relationship

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