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track forecast:Operational capability and new techniques-Summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 64-80页

作者： Adam Conroy Helen Titley Rabi Rivett Xiangbo Feng John Methven Kevin Hodges Alan Brammer Andrew Burton Paromita Chakraborty Guomin Chen Levi Cowan Jason Dunion Abhijit Sarkar Bureau of Meteorology West PerthAustralia Met Office ExeterUK National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReadingUK Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReadingUK Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA National Centre for Medium Range Weather forecasting NoidaIndia Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina Joint Typhoon Warning Center HonoluluUSA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies University of Miamiand Hurricane Research DivisionNOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological LaboratoryMiamiUSA

In this paper,we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and *** rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks(OFTs)appears to be slowing down,at least for shorter lead times,where we may be approaching theoretical *** agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP *** continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques,which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this *** in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus *** agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty,rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 *** trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance,particularly vortex parameter files,and improved spread in *** improving spread-skill relationships,most ensemble NWP systems remain under *** many operational centers are looking to leverage“super-ensembles”(ensembles of ensembles)to ensure the full spread of location probability is *** is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological *** services by Elsevier *** behalf of KeAi Communication *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Tropical cyclones track forecasting Ensembles track uncertainty

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INFLUENCE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS ON TYPHOON MOTION

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 1991年第2期5卷 228-241页

作者：蒋群董克勤 Academy of Meteorological Science SMABeijing

Typhoon is regarded as a convergent,modified Rankine *** on the vorticity equations written at two levels,higher and lower in the troposphere,typhoon motions are discussed in this *** analytical expressions of vortex motion direction and speed have been derived for simple homogeneous basic flows at two *** expressions indicate that in the easterties,vertical wind shear enhances the steering of east flow, causing the vortex moving westward faster,otherwise,in the westerlies,it reduces the steering of the west flow, causing the vortex moving eastward *** results explain theoretically that“cyclones in the easterlies move to the right of,and faster than the basic flow;conversely,cyclones in the westerlies move to the left of,and slower than the basic flow.” With derived baroclinic diagnostic equations and a barotropical model,ten cases from 1980 to 1983 have been calculated for 24h typhoon *** results show that the baroclinic models are better than the baro- tropic ***,the vertical wind shear is one of the important factors affecting typhoon movement.

关键词： typhoon motion vertical wind shear beta-effect track forecasting

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