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Numerical Simulation of a torrential rain Event in the Northeast of Huaihe ***Ⅰ:Model Verification and Analysis of MCSs

Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第2期23卷 223-232页

作者：王亦平潘益农王元陆维松 Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education Department of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

A torrential rain event accompanying Typhoon Prapiroon occurred in 2000, with 24-h rainfall amount reaching 800 mm near the typhoon center. This event is simulated by the nonhydrostatic mesoscaie model ARPS （V5.2）, with thriple one-way nested-grids. Grid spacings of 45, 15, and 5 km are chosen for the three nested domains. The corresponding grid sizes are 75×75, 140× 140, and 180× 180, respectively. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, radar echoes, and CMS-5 satellite images are assimilated with the ARPS model initially using a 3-D data assimilation system-ADAS. The simple ice phase scheme and the Kain- Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme axe used. There are 35 layers in the vertical, with a vertical grid spacing of about 625 m. The integration is performed up to 48 h from 0800 BT 29 to 0800 BT 31 August 2000. Compared with radar echoes, GMS-5 satellite images, and intensive surface observations, the results show that the heavy rain area down between the 500-hPa trough and the subtropical high in the left-front of Prapiroon is well simulated by the model ARPS, and the simulated rainfall centers are consistent with observations. A comparison of the radar echoes with these retrieved from the simulated hydrometeors reveals that there are meso-β scale convective systems that exhibit distinctive characteristics, and there are four convective belts converging in the vicinity of Xiangshui, where the maximum rainfall is observed. A further comparision of skew T-lgp diagrams from simulated and observed data demonstrates significant instability in this torrential rain process. The persistent vertical wind shear provides kinetic energy for the development of the MCSs, hence promoting the baroclinic development of convective cells, and the concentration of heavy rain at the specific location. The consistency between model results and observations encourages a further study of the torrential rain event using the simulation data.

关键词： torrential rain numerical simulation 3-D data assimilation radar echo skew T-lgp diagram

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Application of Generalized Moist Potential Vorticity to the Analysis of a torrential rain Case

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第6期24卷 732-739页

作者：周冠博崔春光高守亭 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan Institute of Heavy rain China Meteorological Administration

Considering the non-uniform saturation of the real atmosphere,a diagnostic study of a torrential rain event is performed from the perspective of the anomaly of the generalized moist potential vorticity（GMPV） after introducing the generalized potential temperature into the thermodynamic frame of the real atmosphere. The results show that the anomaly appeared at mid-lower levels of the troposphere when the torrential rain *** of the magnitudes and locations of maximum values of the tendency of the GMPV indicates that the anomaly of the GMPV was closely related to the occurrence of torrential rain. Therefore,the GMPV could be used to forecast and diagnose the occurrence of torrential rain in operational application.

关键词： non-uniform saturation generalized moist potential vorticity(GMPV) torrential rain

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Objective Analysis of Circulation Extremes During the 21 July 2012torrential rain in Beijing

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第5期27卷 626-635页

作者：赵洋洋张庆红杜宇江漫张季平 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology

It has been reported that the heaviest rain event since 1951 hit Beijing on 21 July 2012 （henceforth referred to as the 721 case）.The frequency and extreme attributes of the large-scale circulation patterns observed during the 721 case are explored by using obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis （PCA） and reanalysis data from NCEP/*** occurrence frequency of the 721-type circulation during the summers of 1951-2012 is 10.9%,while the frequency of torrential rain under this type of circulation is 4.51%.Relative to other rainstorms with similar large-scale circulations during the study period,the 721 case is characterized by a more westward extension of the subtropical high over the western North Pacific,a stronger low-level jet in the lower troposphere over the south of Beijing,a larger amount of ambient precipitable water,and a stronger vertical wind shear over *** the 621 days with the 721-type circulation during the study period,the 721 case ranks the 54th in terms of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing,the 209th in terms of the local vertical wind shear,and the 8th in terms of the local precipitable *** 721 case is particularly extreme with respect to the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable *** with similar circulations and equal or greater values of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water have occurred thrice during the summers of 1951-2012 （i.e.,once every 21 years）.

关键词： torrential rain circulation classification low-level jet vertical wind shear precipitable water

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Study on torrential rain Disaster Index and Threshold in Zhangjiajie City

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2022年第5期13卷 60-67,72页

作者： Yueyong LI Wei ZHOU Hao LI Ke LIANG Hunan Provincial Meteorological Service Centre Changsha 410118China Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Changsha 410118China Zhangjiajie Meteorological Office of Hunan Province Zhangjiajie 427000China

Based on the precipitation data and torrential rain disaster data in Zhangjiajie City of Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020,taking the claim cases of the property and cargo insurance(hereinafter referred to as"property and cargo insurance")from Hunan Branch of the People’s Insurance Company of China as the research sample,the Dominance Analysis Method was used to determine the influence weights of disaster-causing factors to establish a comprehensive disaster-causing index(I)model of torrential ***,an exponential function was used to fit the relationship between the number of town or street which filed claims of property and cargo insurance and I,then to determine the threshold of I corresponding to different accident *** claim cases caused by torrential rain disaster in Zhangjiajie in the flood season of 2021 were selected to verify the I and its *** results showed that the number of property and cargo insurance accidents caused by torrential rain in Zhangjiajie was generally low in east and west but high in middle *** the disaster-causing factors,the weight of the 96-h accumulated precipitation on the scope of accident was the largest,reaching 28.6%.The simulated grades of the scope of accident,the amount of claim and the number of accidents of property and cargo insurance had a high correlation with the grades of actual disasters,and all passed the test at the 0.01 significance *** threshold test results showed that the consistency rate or accuracy between the predicted level and the actual level of torrential rain disaster-causing cases was 71.4%,in which the predicted values of accuracy for the mild,moderate and severe disaster levels were 70%,70%and 100%,***,the threshold of I established in this study can be used for the industrial meteorological services related to the property and cargo insurance in Zhangjiajie.

关键词： torrential rain Property and cargo insurance Disaster threshold

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Application of retrospective time integration scheme to the prediction of torrential rain

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Chinese Physics B 2004年第3期13卷 413-422页

作者：封国林董文杰贾晓静封国林董文杰贾晓静 NationalClimateCenterofChina Beijing100081China InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics ChineseAcademyofScienceBeijing100029China

The retrospective time integration scheme presented on the principle of the self-memory of the atmosphere is applied to the mesoscale grid model MM5, constructing a mesoscale self-memorial model SMM5, and then the shortrange prediction experiments of torrential rain are performed in this paper. Results show that in comparison with MM5 the prediction accuracy of SMM5 is obviously improved due to its utilization of multiple time level past observations,and the precipitation area and intensity predicted by SMM5 are closer to observational fields than those by MM5.

关键词： mesoscale numerical model short-range weather prediction atmospheric self-memory retrospective time integration scheme torrential rain

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Three-dimensional variational data assimilation implemented in numerical modeling for Wuhan torrential rain in July 1998

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2002年第6期 47-50页

作者： ZHANG Xin , WANG Bin, JI Zhongzhen and LIN Wantao(LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China) LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

On July 20-21, 1998, a torrential rain with 24-hour rainfall of 286mm occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China. In this study, a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system developed at the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model ( MM5 ) along with conventional rawinsonde sounding and surface observation is used for modeling the heavy rain. It successfully incorporates observational data of temperature, humidity and wind, and provides an optimal analysis being in favor of the formation of heavy rain. The 24-hour rainfall predicted by the new scheme is 109 mm rather tban 2.5 mm forecasted by control experiment. Furthermore, the forecasted accuracy of location and time-variation of hourly rainfall reproduced by this model is also improved.

关键词： variational data assimilation torrential rain numerical modeling.

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Evolution of Instability before and during a torrential rainstorm in North China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第1期33卷 110-120页

作者： Lu LIU Lingkun RAN Shouting GAO Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy Sciences Beijing 100029 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100040 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081

NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyze the characteristics and evolution mechanism of convective and symmetric instability before and during a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 21 July *** twelve hours before the rainstorm,the atmosphere was mainly dominated by convective instability in the lower level of 900-800 *** strong southwesterly low-level jet conveyed the moist and warm airflow continuously to the area of torrential rain,maintaining and enhancing the unstable *** the precipitation occurred,unstable energy was released and the convective instability ***,due to the baroclinicity enhancement in the atmosphere,the symmetric instability strengthened,maintaining and promoting the subsequent torrential *** the convective instability tendency equation demonstrated that the barotropic component of potential divergence and the advection term played a major role in enhancing the convective instability before the *** of the tendency equation of moist potential vorticity showed that the coupled term of vertical vorticity and the baroclinic component of potential divergence was the primary factor influencing the development of symmetric instability during the *** the effects of these factors on convective instability and symmetric instability showed some correlation.

关键词： convective instability symmetric instability torrential rain potential divergence

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Impacts of Cloud-Induced Mass Forcing on the Development of Moist Potential Vorticity Anomaly During torrential rains

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2004年第6期21卷 923-927页

作者：高守亭周玉淑崔晓鹏戴国平 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Beijing University of Technology Beijing 100022

The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV tendency equation with the cloud-induced mass forcing is derived, and applied to the torrential rain event over the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during 26–30 June 1999. The result shows that positive anomalies are located mainly between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, while the maximum MPV, maximum positive tendency of the MPV, and maximum surface rainfall are nearly collocated. The cloud-induced mass forcing contributes to the positive tendency of the moist potential vorticity anomaly. The results indicate that the MPV may be used to track the propagation of rain systems for operational applications.

关键词： torrential rain cloud-induced mass forcing moist potential vorticity anomaly

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Sensitivity Analysis of Ensemble Simulations on a torrential rainfall Case over South China Using Multiple PBL and SL Parameterizations

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第2期26卷 208-222页

作者：黄龄 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

A good representation of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer(PBL)and the surface layer(SL)in numerical models is of great importance for the prediction of the initiation and development of *** study examined an ensemble that consists of the available suites of PBL and SL parameterizations based on a torrential rainfall event over south *** sensitivity of the simulations was investigated against objective measurements using multiple PBL and SL parameterization *** main causes of the bias from different parameterization schemes were further analysed by comparing the good and bad ensemble *** results showed that good members tended to underestimate the rainfall amount but presented a decent evolution of mesoscale convective systems that were responsible for the torrential *** the total energy mass flux(TEMF)scheme,the bad members overestimated the amount and spatial coverage of *** failure of the bad member was due to a spurious convection initiation(CI)resulting from the overestimated high-θe elevated *** spurious CI developed and expanded rapidly,causing intensive and extensive rainfall over south *** with previous studies,the TEMF scheme tends to produce a warmer and moister PBL *** detailed sensitivity analysis of this case may provide reference for the operational forecast of rainfall over south China using multiple PBL and SL parameterizations.

关键词： PBL SL parameterization torrential rain

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Diagnostic Analyses and Application of the Moist Ageostrophic Vector Q

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2004年第1期21卷 96-102页

作者：姚秀萍于玉斌寿绍文 LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Training Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Training Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044

Considering the main thermal forcing factor, which is critical for the development of synoptic systems, the concept of the moist ageostrophic vector Q is introduced. A formula of the moist ageostrophic Q and the ageostrophic diabatic equation, in which the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q is taken as a single forcing term, is derived. Meanwhile, the moist ageostrophic Q is applied to diagnose a torrential rain process in North China. The results suggest that the moist ageostrophic Q can clearly reveal the system development during the torrential rain process; the corresponding relationship between the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q and the rainfall area is better than that of the vertical velocity (w) and the divergence of the dry Q; the 6-h rainfall region can be correctly drawn according to the negative area of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q, and its precipitation is positively correlated to the magnitude of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q. The research provides valuable information for improving short-term weather forecast.

关键词： moist ageostrophic Q diabatic heating effect torrential rain

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