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torrential flood prevention in the Kolubara river basin

Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第11期14卷 2230-2245页

作者： KOSTADINOV Stanimir DRAGI?EVI? Slavoljub STEFANOVI? Tomislav NOVKOVI? Ivan PETROVI? M.Ana University of Belgrade Faculty of Forestry University of Belgrade Faculty of Geography Institute of Forestry Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts Geographical Institute "J. Cviji?"

One of the most vulnerable parts to natural hazards in Serbia is Kolubara river basin. In the past, during the period from 1929 to 2013, 121 torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin were recorded which show that this territory is extremely vulnerable to the torrential floods. The extreme event which occurred in May 2014 causing the catastrophic material damages and casualties was the latest and historical flood. The analysis of natural conditions in the Kolubara basin uniformly showed that this area is predisposed to a greater number of torrential floods due to its geomorphological, hydrological and land use properties. torrential floods are closely related to the intensity and spatial distribution of erosive processes in the upper part of the Kolubara basin. The estimation of soil erosion potential is generally achieved by Erosion Potential Model(EPM). For the purposes of determining the degree of torrential properties in various water streams in the Kolubara basin, the calculation ofsusceptibility to torrential floods was assessed by Flash Flood Potential Index(FFPI). More than half of the basin area(57.2%) is located within the category of very weak and weak erosion(Z_(sr) = 0.35), but the category of medium erosion is geospatially very common. Such a distribution of medium erosion category provides conditions for generating, i.e. production of sediment which would boost torrential properties of water streams. After the classification of the obtained FFPI values it was determined that 25% of the Kolubara basin is very susceptible to torrents and this data should be seriously taken into consideration. Based on the analyses, the best and most successful manner of defence is prevention which consists of the integrated river basin management system(integrated torrent control system) so that technical works in hydrographic networks of torrents and biological and biotechnical works on the slope of the basin would be the best solution. Permanent control of er

关键词： Soil erosion torrential floods Erosioncontrol works Integrated river basin management

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Impact of Large Fresh Water Discharges into Hakata Bay Due to torrential Rain Using Nested Two-Dimensional Convective-Dispersive Model

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2017年第6期9卷 553-565页

作者： A. Fukuda T. Tabata Y. Honda K. Hiramatsu M. Harada Department of Agro-Environmental Sciences Graduate School of Bioenvironmental Sciences Kyushu University Fukuoka Japan Department of Agro-Environmental Sciences Faculty of Agriculture Kyushu University Fukuoka Japan Chiyonosono Sake Brewery INC Kumamoto Japan

In this study, numerical simulation of a two-dimensional convective-dispersive model in Hakata Bay, Japan, is performed to analyze the impact of major river discharges due to torrential rain in Fukuoka City. Tank models are applied to calculate river discharges, which are taken into consideration as river inflow in the hydrodynamic model of Hakata Bay. A two-way nesting “edge” technique is developed and applied in the model in order to consider the influence of narrow and complex geographical features. The area around “Island City” and Imazu Bay are calculated in high resolution. The resulting model has high reproducibility since the calculated river discharges, tidal current, and salinity show good agreement with observed data. To analyze the impact of large river discharges, the calculation period is set from 11 September 2002 to 21 September 2002 since there was torrential rain on September 16 in the given year in Fukuoka City (163.5 mm/d). The results show that low-salinity water covered the whole of the inner part of Hakata Bay, and water of lower salinity than outer sea water (torrential rain event. Fresh water covered the entire area of Imazu Bay and flowed out from the mouth of the Bay after the torrential rain event. The behavior of fresh water after a few days of torrential rain was remarkably different from normal discharge river flow. These results indicate that the environment in Imazu Bay can be degraded severely by torrential rain. Therefore, countermeasures to protect ecosystems in Hakata Bay must be examined immediately.

关键词： Two-Dimensional Convective-Dispersive Model Edge Nesting Tank Model torrential Rain Hakata Bay

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Numerical Simulation and Moist Potential Vorticity Analysis of torrential Rain in Jiangxi Province during June 2010

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Asian Agricultural Research 2014年第6期6卷 79-82页

作者： Zugang ZHOU Yongqiang JIANG Gaoying ZHANG Wenjun ZHANG Chaohui CHEN Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography PLA University of Sciences and Technology PLA 61741 Unit Meteorological Institute of Beijing Aviation

Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.

关键词： torrential rain Precipitation forecast Numerical s

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CAPABILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF GRAPES SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER A COMPLEX OROGRAPHY

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第2期25卷 180-191页

作者：钟水新杨帅郭春伢陈子通 Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangdong Meteorological Observatory CMA

A comprehensive observational study on a warm sector torrential rain(WSTR) on 20 May 2016 over south China is presented with a pioneering examination of simulation capabilities based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM). The results show that the meso-scale convective boundary formed between north wind from mountainous areas and the south wind from plain regions as well as the cold outflows boundary both contribute to the convections over Xinyi, and the convections were blocked and stayed stagnant in the trumpet-shaped topography for about 8 hours which eventually caused the torrential *** verifications of the observational studies by simulations showed that GRAPES_TMM had better estimations of large-scale frontal precipitation than the local warm-sector torrential rains. The simulations of local torrential rains in the warm sector showed strong biases in precipitation location and amount. GRAPES_TMM also showed overestimated surface winds and a faster moving speed bias, as well as an overall underestimation of the nocturnal surface temperature during the WSTR. This work may lead to several prospective researches of its model improvements on model physics such as land surface process and PBL parameterization.

关键词： warm sector torrential rain(WSTR) trumpet-shaped topography GRAPES_TMM mesoscale convective boundary

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气候变暖背景下宁夏暴雨日数的变化

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气候变化研究进展 2008年第Z1期4卷 7-12页

作者：陈晓光郑广芬陈晓娟 Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing Yinchuan 750002China Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing Yinchuan 750002China Ningxia Meteorological Observatory Yinchuan 750002China Ningxia Meteorological Observatory Yinchuan 750002China

By using the summer torrential rain days data in Ningxia,the Yinchuan sounding data and the NCEP/NCAR reaualyzed data,the evolutional characteristics and the cause of torrential rain days in Ningxia were analyzed under the background of climate *** results show that both annual torrential rain days and annual mean temperature displayed consistent increasing *** analysis results indicate that atmospheric potential instability has grown in the daytime in both July and August and in the nighttime in July,but weakened in the nighttime in August after the climate warming of ***,the climate warming not only caused more distinctive diurnal variation of the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperatures in Yinchuan,but also resulted in the increase of torrential rain days and in more obvious diurnal variation of the torrential rain in Ningxia.

关键词： climate change torrential rain days atmospheric circulation formation mechanism Ningxia

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EXPERIMENTS ON IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING AND RISKBASED WARNING OF TYPHOON IN CHINA

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第1期7卷 31-36页

作者： LI WEI JIAYING LI XUAN YANG National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration

Typhoon is one of the disastrous weather systems that usually occur in summer and autumn in China’s *** and rainstorms brought by typhoon can directly cause serious loss in economy and also induce storm surge,flash flood,mud-rock flow,landslide and other secondary *** article studies the impact of collapsing force of typhoon gale and the risk-based warning of typhoon *** calculating the accumulated wind pressure and the designed wind load of bearing walls of low-rise building in coastal region,we define the damaged building *** addition,four steps for the risk-based warning or impact forecasting for small and medium-sized river basins,flash flood,mud flows and landslides caused by Typhoon rainstorm are introduced,which include understanding vulnerability of disaster carriers,developing risk thresholds of disasters,improving the accuracy of QPE/QPF and the risk assessment skill.

关键词： collapsing force of typhoon wind pressure damaged building index torrential rainfall risk-based warning

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