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A Hybrid Neural Network and Box-Jenkins models for time series Forecasting

Computers, Materials & Continua 2022年第3期70卷 4829-4845页

作者： Mohammad Hadwan Basheer M.Al-Maqaleh Fuad N.Al-Badani Rehan Ullah Khan Mohammed A.Al-Hagery Department of Information Technology College of ComputerQassim UniversityBuraydahSaudi Arabia Department of Computer Science College of Applied SciencesTaiz UniversityTaizYemen Intelligent Analytics Group(IAG) College of ComputerQassim UniversityBuraydahSaudi Arabia Faculty of Computer Sciences and Information Systems Thamar UniversityThamarYemen Faculty of Administration Science Ibb UniversityIbbYemen Department of Computer Science College of ComputerQassim UniversityBuraydahSaudi Arabia

time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.

关键词： Hybrid model forecasting non-linear data time series models cancer patients neural networks box-jenkins consumer price index

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Reconstructing historical forest fire risk in the non-satellite era using the improved forest fire danger index and long short-term memory deep learning-a case study in Sichuan Province,southwestern China

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Forest Ecosystems 2024年第1期11卷 87-99页

作者： Yuwen Peng Huiyi Su Min Sun Mingshi Li Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China Nanjing Forestry UniversityNanjing 210037China College of Forestry Nanjing Forestry UniversityNanjing 210037China

Historical forest fire risk databases are vital for evaluating the effectiveness of past forest management approaches,enhancing forest fire warnings and emergency response capabilities,and accurately budgeting potential carbon emissions resulting from fires.However,due to the unavailability of spatial information technology,such databases are extremely difficult to build reliably and completely in the non-satellite era.This study presented an improved forest fire risk reconstruction framework that integrates a deep learning-based time series prediction model and spatial interpolation to address the challenge in Sichuan Province,southwestern China.First,the forest fire danger index(FFDI)was improved by supplementing slope and aspect information.We compared the performances of three time series models,namely,the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),Prophet and long short-term memory(LSTM)in predicting the modified forest fire danger index(MFFDI).The bestperforming model was used to retrace the MFFDI of individual stations from 1941 to 1970.Following this,the Anusplin spatial interpolation method was used to map the distributions of the MFFDI at five-year intervals,which were then subjected to weighted overlay with the distance-to-river layer to generate forest fire risk maps for reconstructing the forest fire danger database.The results revealed LSTM as the most accurate in fitting and predicting the historical MFFDI,with a fitting determination coefficient(R^2)of 0.709,mean square error(MSE)of0.047,and validation R^2 and MSE of 0.508 and 0.11,respectively.Independent validation of the predicted forest fire risk maps indicated that 5 out of 7 historical forest fire events were located in forest fire-prone areas,which is higher than the results determined from the original FFDI(2 out of 7).This proves the effectiveness of the improved MFFDI and indicates a high level of reliability of the historical forest fire risk reconstruction method proposed in this study.

关键词： Forest fire risk reconstruction MFFDI time series models LSTM ARIMA Prophet Anusplin

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