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Determining Cost-Efficiency and Regulation Policy for Water Transfer of Lake Balaton by Stochastic Dynamic Programming

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B) 2012年第5期1卷 586-592页

作者： Balint Muzelak Laszlo Koncsos General Com Engineering Ltd. Budaoers 2040 Hungary Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering Budapest University of Technology and Economics Budapest 1111Hungary

The present research is based upon a comprehensive survey which discusses the slightly tolerable water level of Balaton between 2000 and 2003. The low water level of the extreme period caused considerable problems in recreation. Our goal was to investigate the possible water transfer policies and the water level regulation policy of Lake Balaton by applying the dynamic programming of Markov chains. This iteration supports the cost-benefit analysis of different scenarios and also provides information about the best water governing policy. As a basis of our scientific analysis, Markov chains were created by arma （autoregressive moving average） synthetic data generator. Profit was joined to each transition-probability for the economic analysis. In our case the profit was negative, because the harmful effects of the low water level should be estimated, which is based on the calculated willingness-to-pay for improving the water quality of Lake Balaton. In addition, the profit includes the cost of different water supplement scenarios. After computer programming, the method proved to be an efficient tool to buttress the cost-benefit analysis of water supplement scenarios. The result highlights the importance of further climate change monitoring. Calculation confirmed water transfer to be cost-effective, yet scenarios with less ecological risk are also effective, thus preferable.

关键词： Climate change cost-benefit analysis Markovian decision process thomas-fiering arma model water transfer.

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