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作者：杨佳昕河南大学

学位级别：硕士

土地是人类社会存续与发展的物质基础,土地利用/覆被变化(land Use/Cover Change,LUCC)是人地关系的集中体现。构建土地变化模型对未来土地利用格局模拟预测是LUCC研究的重要内容,能够增进人们对土地变化过程的理解,为未来发展规划设计... 详细信息

土地是人类社会存续与发展的物质基础,土地利用/覆被变化(land Use/Cover Change,LUCC)是人地关系的集中体现。构建土地变化模型对未来土地利用格局模拟预测是LUCC研究的重要内容,能够增进人们对土地变化过程的理解,为未来发展规划设计提供借鉴。本研究以兰考县为研究对象,梳理过去土地利用变化特点,构建土地变化模型模拟未来土地利用格局,旨在为该县土地利用可持续发展提供一定的科学参考。首先,确定用于模拟的土地利用类型和栅格时空分辨率,基于2009、2014和2019三期Google Earth高清影像进行目视解译,对兰考县统计年鉴和一系列的相关规划进行空间化处理形成基础数据库。然后,基于Terr Set地理空间监测和建模系统(Terr Set Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System,Terr Set)中的一系列基础模型从数量和空间两个方面分析该县2009-2019年土地利用变化情况。从自然、社会经济和政策三个方面选择了17个驱动因素,对自然和社会经济的12个驱动因素进行二元Logistic回归分析和受试者工作特征值(Relative Operating Characteristic,ROC)检验。在此基础上,使用多重人工神经网络方法(Multi-Layer Perceptron,MLP)校准土地利用变化模型(Land Change Molder,LCM),使用多个Kappa指数检验模型输出的有效性。最后,基于上述的研究结果。以2009-2019年土地利用空间和数量变化为依据,使用MLP方法训练得出的未来短期平稳变化下的土地利用转变潜力图,使用Markov链计算得出2025年各地类数量变化,设计自然发展情景。以国家及河南省新颁布的相关政策为依据,引入多标准评价方法(Multi-Criteria Evaluations,MCE)得出未来非平稳变化下的土地利用适宜性图,减少耕地和林地转出及城乡建设用地转入数量,设计生态和耕地保护情景。通过LCM模型模拟实现研究区2025年两种情景。同时,模拟得出城镇开发边界,划定国土空间规划分区。最后,根据模拟结果对兰考县未来土地利用可持续发展提出建议。主要研究结论如下:(1)2009-2019年,兰考县土地利用时空格局变化明显。具体表现为:耕地面积占土地总面积59.85%,转入面积8242.60hm,转出面积11362.50hm,是面积最大和面积变化最大的土地利用类型。耕地、园地、林地、城乡建设用地、设施农用地和内陆滩涂相互间变化面积占全县所有地类间变化面积的85.04%。数量上,各地类变化差异较大。耕地、林地和内陆滩涂属净减少类型,且耕地净减少数量最大(3119.90hm),城乡建设用地、园地和设施农用地为净增加类型,且城乡建设用地净增加面积最大(4124.09hm)。在结构转换方面,耕地转出方向多且补充来源多,同园地、林地转入转出保持相对平衡,净转出至城乡建设用地面积最大(3050.11hm),内陆滩涂主要转入耕地但数量枯竭。未来耕地保护压力大。空间上,耕地转出三阶高值和城乡建设用地转入高值空间分布较为一致,说明二者变化关系密切。耕地空间变化活跃未能形成稳定的耕地利用空间。林地增加源于生态环境建设,受政策因素影响较大。新增城乡建设用地集中分布在县城周边和各乡镇行政中心并向四周延伸,沿公路两侧大量增加,其内部城镇和村庄两头增加。园地和设施农用地与各乡镇农业产业发展相关。(2)兰考县土地利用变化受多种驱动因素影响,所选取12种驱动因素能够有效解释土地利用格局空间分布。二元Logistic回归方程下耕地、园地、林地、城乡建设用地和设施农用地ROC值均大于0.7,且回归方程与上述地类实际空间分布相符。说明所选取的驱动因素有效,能够作为初始变量选择纳入到MLP训练。在LCM校准阶段,通过MLP训练各地类土地利用变化子模型准确率均高于75%。在模型输出验证方面,参考图与比较图之间的Kstandard为0.8335,Kno为0.8741,Klocation为0.8532,Klocation Strata为0.8532。四种Kappa指数均大于0.75。以上各项指标表明LCM模型模拟效果较好,满足研究要求。(3)不同情境下兰考县土地利用变化差异较大。两种情景模拟结果显示:自然发展情境下,耕地和林地面积进一步下降,城乡建设用地面积进一步增加。除少数乡镇外,未来全县多数耕地仍处于不稳定状态。城乡建设用地空间上无序蔓延和沿公路两侧扩张态势进一步加剧。生态和耕地保护情景下,耕地、园地、林地和城乡建设用地均完成了上一轮土地利用总体规划中的指标,但现有土地资源无法满足所有用地需求。未来兰考县应科学制定国土空间结构调整方案,使得各项发展都能落地。保证耕地数量不减少,利

关键词：土地利用变化土地利用模拟 LCM模型兰考县 terrset

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An integrated land change modeler and distributed hydrological model approach for quantifying future urban runoff dynamics

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3288-3301页

作者： Asad Hussain MUHAMMAD Waseem MUHAMMAD Ajmal MUHAMMAD Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq MUHAMMAD Jiaqing XIAO Tao YANG Pengfei SHI Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical ScienceNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering University of Engineering and TechnologyLahore 54890Pakistan Department of Agricultural Engineering Faculty of CivilAgricultural and Mining EngineeringUniversity of Engineering and TechnologyPeshawar 25120Pakistan

Climate and land use changes have a significant impact on the runoff generation process in urban environments, and these effects could get worse in the future. The combined contributions of these changes have increased the risk of ***, there is a need for integrated modeling to better understand the runoff variability, especially in small urban catchments. To quantify and separate the effects of land-use changes and climate change on the hydrological response of urban catchments with a distributed hydrological model(Storm Water Management Model, SWMM), this study introduces a new integrated approach based on the Machine Learning based land use change modeler and climate change scenarios under *** on supervised classification and land use change model analysis, accumulated impervious area increase from 22%(in2023) to 33%(in 2060) was observed in the study area. Furthermore, integrating this projected increase in imperviousness with future climate change into SWMM by considering three different scenarios i.e., S1(Climate Change), S2(Combined Land Use and Climate Change), and S3(Land use Change) resulted that climate change could cause an increase in runoff from 13.2% to18.3% in peak runoff and the contribution of land use could range from 9.1% to 18.6%. Similarly, in response to the coupled effects of climate and land-use change, the runoff would likely change from 24.53% to 39.66%. Conclusively, the study showed that despite climate change, intensive urban development by the substitution of impervious surfaces could also have a severe impact on the microclimate and hydrology of small catchments. Lastly, this study could provide a way forward for the future planning and management of water resources in small catchments which could be extended to larger catchments.

关键词： Climate change Land-use modeling Runoff simulation Percent Imperviousness terrset

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Integrated assessment of extreme climate and landuse change impact on sediment yield in a mountainous transboundary watershed of India and Pakistan

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Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第3期17卷 624-640页

作者： Muhammad BABUR Sangam SHRESTHA Binod BHATTA Avishek DATTA Hayat ULLAH Civil Engineering Department University of Central Punjab1-Khayaban-e-Jinnah RoadJohar Town Lahore 54770Pakistan Department of Water Engineering and Management School of Engineering and TechnologyAsian Institute of TechnologyPathum Thani 12120Thailand Department of Food Agriculture and BioresourcesSchool of EnvironmentResources and DevelopmentAsian Institute of TechnologyPathum Thani 12120Thailand

Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and *** show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.

关键词： Climate change and land use changes Extreme events terrset LCM Sediment yield

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