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An attention-based teacher-student model for multivariate short-term landslide displacement prediction incorporating weather forecast data

引用

Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第8期21卷 2739-2753页

作者： CHEN Jun HU Wang ZHANG Yu QIU Hongzhi WANG Renchao Sichuan Artificial Intelligence Research Institute Yibin 644000China School of Computer Science and Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaChengdu 611731China School of Architecture and Civil Engineering Chengdu UniversityChengdu 610106China

Predicting the displacement of landslide is of utmost practical importance as the landslide can pose serious threats to both human life and ***,traditional methods have the limitation of random selection in sliding window selection and seldom incorporate weather forecast data for displacement prediction,while a single structural model cannot handle input sequences of different lengths at the same *** order to solve these limitations,in this study,a new approach is proposed that utilizes weather forecast data and incorporates the maximum information coefficient(MIC),long short-term memory network(LSTM),and attention mechanism to establish a teacher-student coupling model with parallel structure for short-term landslide displacement *** MIC,a suitable input sequence length is selected for the LSTM *** investigate the influence of rainfall on landslides during different seasons,a parallel teacher-student coupling model is developed that is able to learn sequential information from various time series of different *** teacher model learns sequence information from rainfall intensity time series while incorporating reliable short-term weather forecast data from platforms such as China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and Reliable Prognosis(https://***)to improve the model’s expression capability,and the student model learns sequence information from other time *** attention module is then designed to integrate different sequence information to derive a context vector,representing seasonal temporal attention ***,the predicted displacement is obtained through a linear *** proposed method demonstrates superior prediction accuracies,surpassing those of the support vector machine(SVM),LSTM,recurrent neural network(RNN),temporal convolutional network(TCN),and LSTM-Attention *** achieves a mean absolute error(MAE)of 0.072 mm,root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.096 mm,and pearson correlation coefficients(PC

关键词： Landslide prediction MIC LSTM Attention mechanism teacher student model Prediction stability and interpretability

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