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Impact of extreme weather and climate events on crop yields in the tarim river basin,China

Journal of Arid Land 2025年第2期17卷 200-223页

作者： WANG Xiaochen LI Zhi CHEN Yaning ZHU Jianyu WANG Chuan WANG Jiayou ZHANG Xueqi FENG Meiqing LIANG Qixiang State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid LandsXinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Chifeng Institute of Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Science Inner MongoliaChifeng 024000China

The tarim river basin(TRB)is a vast area with plenty of light and heat and is an important base for grain and cotton production in Northwest *** the context of climate change,however,the increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events is having numerous negative impacts on the region's agricultural *** better understand how unfavorable climatic conditions affect crop production,we explored the relationship of extreme weather and climate events with crop yields and *** this research,ten indicators of extreme weather and climate events(consecutive dry days(CDD),min Tmax(TXn),max Tmin(TNx),tropical nights(TR),warm days(Tx90p),warm nights(Tn90p),summer days(SU),frost days(FD),very wet days(R95p),and windy days(WD))were selected to analyze the impact of spatial and temporal variations on the yields of major crops(wheat,maize,and cotton)in the TRB from 1990 to *** three key findings of this research were as follows:extreme temperatures in southwestern TRB showed an increasing trend,with higher extreme temperatures at night,while the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in northeastern TRB was relatively *** number of FD was on the rise,while WD also increased in recent *** yields were higher in the northeast compared with the southwest,and wheat,maize,and cotton yields generally showed an increasing trend despite an earlier *** correlation of extreme weather and climate events on crop yields can be categorized as extreme nighttime temperature indices(TNx,Tn90p,TR,and FD),extreme daytime temperature indices(TXn,Tx90p,and SU),extreme precipitation indices(CDD and R95p),and extreme wind(WD).By using Random Forest(RF)approach to determine the effects of different extreme weather and climate events on the yields of different crops,we found that the importance of extreme precipitation indices(CDD and R95p)to crop yield decreased significantly over *** well,we found that the importance of the extreme night

关键词： extreme events extreme nighttime heat tarim river basin crop yield random forest model wheat maize cotton phenology

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Evolvement Characteristics of Population and Economic Gravity Centers in tarim river basin,Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2013年第6期23卷 765-772页

作者： WANG Yang CHEN Yaning LI Zhi College of Resources and Environmental Science Xinjiang University State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of Sciences

Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the tarim river basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.

关键词： regional gravity center model population gravity center economic gravity center tarim river basin

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Evolution Stages of Oasis Economy and Its Dependence on Natural Resources in tarim river basin

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Chinese Geographical Science 2009年第2期19卷 135-143页

作者： QIAO Xuning YANG Degang ZHANG Xinhuan Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the tarim river basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of gravity model, and index system of the regional central city are used to probe the evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy. The study finds that: 1) The economic centre of gravity, whose variation track during this period follows linear rate law, was moving from headstream to middle reaches of the tarim river. 2) Positive spatial autocorrelation which showed a waving and ascending trend of regional economy was significant and the neighbor effect of regional economic growth was strengthened continuously. 3) The regional economic centre was located in Hotan City before 1980, moved to Aksu City during the 1980s and to Korla City after 1990. We conclude that above all, during the recent four decades the evolution of the oasis economy in this region has gone through three stages: a traditional agriculture stage (before 1980), oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage (1980–1990) and oasis energy industry stage (after 1990). Furthermore, the dependence degree of the oasis economy on natural resources in different stages are studied by using dominance index, regression model, and grey relation method, which shows that an oasis econ- omy highly depends on water resources in the oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage while it de- pends more on mineral resources such as oil and natural gas during the oasis energy industry stage.

关键词： oasis economy oasis energy industry mineral resources water resources tarim river basin

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Wavelet Analysis and Nonparametric Test for Climate Change in tarim river basin of Xinjiang During 1959-2006

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Chinese Geographical Science 2009年第4期19卷 306-313页

作者： XU Jianhua CHEN Yaning LI Weihong JI Minhe DONG Shan HONG Yulian The Research Center for East-West Cooperation in China East China Normal University Shanghai 200062 China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science Ministry of Education Shanghai 200062 China Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China

Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the tarim river basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,*** findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup *** the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three ***,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing *** 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.

关键词： climate change nonlinear trend wavelet analysis Mann-Kendall test tarim river basin

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Spatiotemporal variation in vegetation net primary productivity and its relationship with meteorological factors in the tarim river basin of China from 2001 to 2020 based on the Google Earth Engine

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第12期14卷 1377-1394页

作者： CHEN Limei Abudureheman HALIKE YAO Kaixuan WEI Qianqian College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830017China Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830017China Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling of Higher Education Institute Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830017China

Vegetation growth status is an important indicator of ecological *** tarim river basin is located in the inland arid region of Northwest China and has a highly fragile ecological *** the vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)of the tarim river basin can provide insights into the vegetation growth variations in the ***,based on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)cloud platform,we studied the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation NPP in the tarim river basin(except for the eastern Gobi and Kumutag deserts)from 2001 to 2020 and analyzed the correlations between vegetation NPP and meteorological factors(air temperature and precipitation)using the Sen slope estimation method,coefficient of variation,and rescaled range analysis *** terms of temporal characteristics,vegetation NPP in the tarim river basin showed an overall fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020,with the smallest value of 118.99 g C/(m2•a)in 2001 and the largest value of 155.07 g C/(m2•a)in *** the spatial characteristics,vegetation NPP in the tarim river basin showed a downward trend from northwest to southeast along the outer edge of the study *** annual average value of vegetation NPP was 133.35 g C/(m2•a),and the area with annual average vegetation NPP values greater than 100.00 g C/(m2•a)was 82,638.75 km2,accounting for 57.76%of the *** future trend of vegetation NPP was dominated by anti-continuity characteristic;the percentage of the area with anti-continuity characteristic was 63.57%.The area with a significant positive correlation between vegetation NPP and air temperature accounted for 53.74%of the regions that passed the significance test,while the area with a significant positive correlation between vegetation NPP and precipitation occupied 98.68%of the regions that passed the significance ***,the effect of precipitation on vegetation NPP was greater than that of air *** results of this study improve the under

关键词： vegetation net primary productivity(NPP) air temperature precipitation Hurst index Google Earth Engine tarim river basin

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Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in tarim river basin,Xinjiang,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2009年第1期19卷 89-95页

作者： MENG Lihong CHEN Yaning LI Weihong ZHAO Ruifeng Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature,society,economics and water resources of the tarim river basin in 2002,we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively,where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity,0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,where water resources carrying capacity is much higher,and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongo-lian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole,the comprehensive grade of the tarim river basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus,we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.

关键词： water resources capacity fuzzy comprehensive evaluation membership degree tarim river basin Xinjiang

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Spatial Effect of Mineral Resources Exploitation on Urbanization:A Case Study of tarim river basin,Xinjiang,China

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Chinese Geographical Science 2012年第5期22卷 590-601页

作者： LI Xuemei ZHANG Xiaolei DU Hongru CHU Shaolin Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi 830011 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Academy of Economy Research of Xinjiang Development and ReJbrm Commission Urumqi 830002 China Grassland Research Institute of Animal Science Academy of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi 830000 China

Mineral resources exploitation significantly affects the spatial structure and evolutive trend of urbanization in arid *** this study,the spatial autocorrelation method and the spatial computation model were used to investigate the spatial impacts of mineral resources excavation and processing on comprehensive level of urbanization in the tarim river basin,Xinjiang,China for the years of 2000,2006 and *** results are as follows:1)There was a spatial correlation of the development of mineral resources industry and the comprehensive level of urbanization in 2006 and 2008,with the spatial concentration trend rising significantly in 2006 and decreasing in 2008.2)The patterns of local spatial concentration of mineral resources industry and of the comprehensive level of urbanization were relatively stable,and the two patterns showed signs of spatial *** higher was the degree of the concentration of mineral resources industry,the stronger was its impact on the spatial clustering of urbanization.3)In 2000, mineral resources excavation and processing had a significant positive impact on the comprehensive level of urbanization in the region but not in its adjacent ***,in 2008,mineral resources excavation and processing significantly raised the comprehensive level of urbanization not only in the region but also in its neighboring *** research demonstrates that the development of mineral resources industry can strongly affect the trends and spatial patterns of urbanization.

关键词： mineral resources development urbanization spatial effect tarim river basin

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Spatial difference features and organization optimization of cities and towns in tarim river basin

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Journal of Arid Land 2010年第1期2卷 33-42页

作者： ChangLong SUN XiaoLei ZHANG Nuo JIN HongRu DU WenWen MA Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Institute of Geography and Tourism Xinjiang Normal UniversityUrumqi 830054China

This paper analyzes the urban spatial structure of tarim river basin from the perspectives of urbanization, urban density, grading scales and spatial evolution patterns, using geographical theories and methods, such as fractal theory, principle component analysis, urbanization imbalance index, urban scale imbalance indicator, and urban spatial interaction. The results show that the urban spatial structure displays balanced distribution in the overall pattern, while an imbalanced distribution in each region. The development of town pattern tends to be gathering to the central towns in the oasis of tarim river basin and a development axis has begun to form along the southern Xinjiang railway. Based on the division of urban hinterland, and the development characteristics of oasis economy, this paper puts forward an urban spatial organization model. This model uses 'breakpoint model' and divides tarim river basin into five urban clusters: Korla urban cluster, Kuqa urban cluster, Aksu urban cluster, Kashgar urban cluster and Hotan urban cluster. As a conclusion, this article puts forward an overall framework of urban spatial organization in tarim river basin: 'one axis, double core, and five groups'.

关键词： tarim river basin urban system spatial structure spatial organization

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Assessment of river basin habitat quality and its relationship with disturbance factors: A case study of the tarim river basin in Northwest China

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第2期14卷 167-185页

作者： HE Bing CHANG Jianxia GUO Aijun WANG Yimin WANG Yan LI Zhehao State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China Xi'an University of TechnologyXi'an 710048China

The status of regional biodiversity is determined by habitat *** effective assessment of habitat quality can help balance the relationship between economic development and biodiversity ***,this study used the InVEST model to conduct a dynamic evaluation of the spatial and temporal changes in habitat quality of the tarim river basin in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China by calc ulating the degradation degree levels for habitat types that were caused by threat factors from 1990 to 2018(represented by four periods of 1990,2000,2010 and 2018).Specifically,we used spatial autocorrelation analysis and Getis-Ord Gi*analysis to divide the study area into three heterogeneous units in terms of habitat quality:cold spot areas,hot spot areas and random *** index,population density,gross domestic product(GDP),altitude and distance from water source(DWS)were then chosen as the main disturbance *** correlation and spatial regression models were subsequently used to analyze the influences of disturbance factors on habitat *** results demonstrated that the overall level of habitat quality in the TRB was poor,showing a continuous degradation *** intensity of the negative correlation between habitat quality and Hemeroby index was proven to be strongest in cold spot areas,hot spot areas and random *** spatial lag model(SLM)was better suited to spatial regression analysis due to the spatial dependence of habitat quality and disturbance factors in heterogeneous *** analyzing the model,Hemeroby index was found to have the greatest impact on habitat quality in the studied four periods(1990,2000,2010 and2018).The research results have potential guiding significance for the formulation of reasonable management policies in the TRB as well as other river basins in arid areas.

关键词： habitat quality biodiversity InVEST model spatial heterogeneity spatial lag model human activities tarim river basin

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Spatio-temporal analysis of urbanization and land and water resources efficiency of oasis cities in tarim river basin

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2014年第3期24卷 509-525页

作者： YANG Yu LIU Yi Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the tarim river basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and inter- plays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran＇s I index, Getis-Ord Gi＊ index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. （1） Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency. （2） Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajecto- ries, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them. （3） The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area. （4） Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area. （5） The degree of coordinated development of cities in the tarim river basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.

关键词： ESDA tarim river basin oasis cities land and water resources efficiency spatio-temporal variation

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