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Dynamic synthetic analysis of circulation field of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai

Frontiers of Earth Science 2024年第2期18卷 347-363页

作者： Wen GU Caijun YUE Zhihui HAN Yanqing GAO Yuqi TANG Xiangyu AO Yao YAO Shanghai Ecological Forecasting&Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China Shanghai Marine Meteorological Centre Shanghai 200030China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for tropical Cyclone(China Meteorological Administration) Shanghai 200030China

Eleven tropical cyclones(TCs)affected Shanghai and crossed the same latitude as Shanghai from 2007 to *** to similar tracks from best-track data,TCs that cause significant precipitation in Shanghai can be divided into three types:landfall TCs,nearshore northward TCs,and western *** on ERA5 reanalysis data,the dynamic synthesis method was used to synthesize TC circulation situations to compare thermal,dynamic,water vapor,and stability conditions within TC circulations during the period when they affected *** conclusions are as follows.1)When the three TC types are at the same latitude as Shanghai,they are all in the divergent field in the upper *** the landfall type,the subtropical high at 500 hPa is stronger and farther north than usual,and there is a high-pressure dam on the north side of the TCs.2)The warm advection of the three TC types at 925 hPa is located in the northern quadrant of the *** dynamic and water vapor conditions are good in the north-western quadrant of landfall and western TCs,and more favorable in the eastern quadrant of nearshore northward TCs.3)The favorable effects of all three types on precipitation in Shanghai come from the boundary *** vapor,upward motion,and instability conditions of landfall TCs are superior to the other two TC *** best water vapor,dynamic,and convective instability conditions are at the northern boundary in Shanghai during landfall TCs,and the main sources of water vapor in Shanghai come from the eastern and northern *** nearshore northward TCs,the main contribution to precipitation is from the eastern boundary,while better dynamic and water vapor conditions come from the western and northern boundaries during western *** above findings provide scientific and technical support for operational forecasting precipitation from TCs affecting mega-cities.

关键词： tropical cyclones dynamic synthetic analysis ERA5 reanalysis Shanghai similar track

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A Physics-informed Deep-learning Intensity Prediction Scheme for tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1391-1402页

作者： Yitian ZHOU Ruifen ZHAN Yuqing WANG Peiyan CHEN Zhemin TAN Zhipeng XIE Xiuwen NIE Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at ManoaHonolulu 96822USA Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of the Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Computer Science Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is challenging due to the complex physical processes ***,we introduce a new TC intensity prediction scheme for the western North Pacific(WNP)based on a time-dependent theory of TC intensification,termed the energetically based dynamical system(EBDS)model,together with the use of a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural *** time-dependent theory,TC intensity change is controlled by both the internal dynamics of the TC system and various environmental factors,expressed as environmental dynamical *** LSTM neural network is used to predict the environmental dynamical efficiency in the EBDS model trained using besttrack TC data and global reanalysis data during 1982–*** transfer learning and ensemble methods are used to retrain the scheme using the environmental factors predicted by the Global Forecast System(GFS)of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction during 2017–*** predicted environmental dynamical efficiency is finally iterated into the EBDS equations to predict TC *** new scheme is evaluated for TC intensity prediction using both reanalysis data and the GFS prediction *** intensity prediction by the new scheme shows better skill than the official prediction from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and those by other state-of-art statistical and dynamical forecast systems,except for the 72-h *** at the longer lead times of 96 h and 120 h,the new scheme has smaller forecast errors,with a more than 30%improvement over the official forecasts.

关键词： tropical cyclones western North Pacific intensity prediction EBDS LSTM

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Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of tropical cyclones:A Numerical Study

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Journal of tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 106-117页

作者：杨昕玮王玉清王慧徐晶占瑞芬 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center School of Earth and Ocean Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822 USA Qingdao Joint Institute of Marine Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationQingdaoShandong 266034 China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 China

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)*** show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer *** is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity *** contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer *** led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer *** resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the *** study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ***,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

关键词： tropical cyclones concentric eyewall inner eyewall and outer eyewall eyewall replacement cycle intensity change

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Impacts of tropical cyclones and anthropogenic activities on marine vanadium: A unique perspective from high resolution Porites coral record

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第12期65卷 2285-2296页

作者： Wei JIANG Xingyuan WU Kefu YU Haodan YANG Shendong XU Ning WANG Yangyang YONG Yinan SUN Chaoshuai WEI Yinghui WANG Guangxi Laboratory on the Study of Coral Reefs in the South China Sea/Coral Reef Research Center of China/School of Marine Sciences Guangxi UniversityNanning 530004China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

As a typical contaminant in fossil fuels,vanadium has undergone dramatically increase due to the impacts from human *** excessive anthropogenic vanadium emissions have altered natural geochemical ***,research on vanadium geochemistry in the ocean,which is the major sink for vanadium mobilized on land,has lagged much behind relative to those of other *** we reconstruct historical patterns of vanadium in surface seawater utilizing a high-resolution temporal record(1984–2015 CE)of geochemical proxies(vanadium/calcium(V/Ca),δ^(18)O,δ^(13)C,etc.)in a Porites coral colony from an offshore non-estuarine island in the northern South China Sea(SCS).We find a close association between the surface winds and the temporal patterns of coral V/Ca ratios,revealing great potential for documenting prehistoric changes in tropical ***,the coral V/Ca record remarkably captured the temporal patterns of anthropogenic activities,offering a valuable and novel tool for testing the efficacy of specific legislation on pollution *** with the other reported coral vanadium data,we recovered the historical changes in vanadium emissions in the northern SCS and identified that changing industrial practices should be responsible for the differences in anthropogenic vanadium emissions at each *** results demonstrated that the coral V/Ca ratio at a high temporal resolution has great potential as a new and direct geochemical proxy for tropical cyclones after removing artificial disturbances in the ocean.

关键词： Vanadium Coral tropical cyclones Oil spill Weizhou Island Northern South China Sea

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Water Budgets of tropical cyclones： Three Case Studies

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 468-484页

作者： WU Wei CHEN Jilong HUANG Ronghui Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

In this study, three tropical cyclones （TCs） that passed through the Taiwan Strait were analyzed; our results show that precipitation is not directly related to the intensity of TCs. From the perspective of water budget, moisture flux convergence was dominant and contributed -70% of the moisture for TC precipitation over the ocean and almost all over the land, especially inside the TC circulation. Their spatial distributions were also similar. Evaporation contributed -30% of the moisture for precipitation over the ocean but changed little with the time. Moisture flux convergence can be divided into two parts： wind convergence and moisture advection. Moisture flux convergence was mostly due to wind convergence, which was dominant in the southwestern quadrants of the TCs. Moisture advection was located in the northern area, and becomes relatively important when the TCs approached the land. The moisture flux convergence and its two parts varied during TC movement, with strengthening and contraction of moisture convergence present near landfall. The vertical structure of the three TC eases all indicated that the moisture convergence was mainly confined to the lower atmosphere under 800 hPa and a weak divergence region was present in the middle troposphere around 550 hPa.

关键词： tropical cyclones water budget moisture convergence precipitation evaporation

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The Simulation of Five tropical cyclones by Sample Optimization of Ensemble Forecasting Based on the Observed Track and Intensity

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第10期38卷 1763-1777页

作者： Jihang LI Zhiyan ZHANG Lu LIU Xubin ZHANG Jingxuan QU and Qilin WAN Guangzhou Institute of tropical and Marine Meteorology Guangzhou 510640China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

The quality of ensemble forecasting is seriously affected by sample *** this study,the distributions of ensemble members based on the observed track and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)were optimized and their influence on the simulation results was *** and observed tracks and intensities of TCs were compared and these two indicators were combined and weighted to score the *** with higher scores were retained and samples with lower scores were eliminated to improve the overall quality of the ensemble *** each sample,the track score and intensity score were added as the final score of the sample with weight proportions of 10 to 0,9 to 1,8 to 2,7 to 3,6 to 4,5 to *** were named as“tr”,“91”,“82”,“73”,“64”,and“55”,*** WRF model was used to simulate five tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific to test the ability of this scheme to improve the forecast track and intensity of these *** results show that the sample optimization effectively reduced the track and intensity error,“55”usually had better performance on the short-term intensity prediction,and“tr”had better performance in short-term track *** the overall performance of the track and intensity simulation,“91”was the best and most stable among all sample optimization *** results may provide some guidance for optimizing operational ensemble forecasting of TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclones ensemble forecast sample optimization observed track and intensity

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The Roles of Barotropic Instability and the Beta Effect in the Eyewall Evolution of tropical cyclones

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1800-1815页

作者： Jie JIANG Yuqing WANG Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at Manoa HonoluluHawaii 96822USA International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii at Manoa HonoluluHawaii 96822USA

Diabatic heating by convection in the eyewall often produces an annular region of high potential vorticity(PV)around the relatively low PV eye in a strong tropical cyclone(TC).Such a PV ring is barotropically unstable and can encourage the exponential growth of PV *** this study,such instability and the subsequent nonlinear evolution of three TC-like vortices having PV rings with different degrees of hollowness on an f-plane are first examined using an unforced,inviscid shallow-water-equation *** show that the simulated eyewalls evolve similarly to those in the nondivergent barotropic *** is also found that the polygonal eyewall structure can be decomposed into vortex Rossby waves(VRWs)of different wavenumbers with different amplitudes,allowing for wave-wave interactions to produce complicated behaviors of mesovortices in the TC *** same set of PV rings has been examined on a *** the beta effect has been rendered unimportant to the eyewall evolution due to the relatively small scale of the inner-core circulation,this study shows that the beta effect may erode the coherent structure of mesovortices in the eyewall of an initially hollow PV-ring *** modeled on the beta-plane with a greater beta parameter tend to experience an earlier breakdown and enhanced radial gradients of the basic-state(azimuthally mean)angular velocity,followed by wave-wave,wave-flow interactions,leading to earlier merger and axisymmetrization *** result implies that the beta effect could be one of the forcings that shorten the lifetime of quasi-steady mesovortices in the eyewall of real TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclones vortex rossby waves barotropic instability Beta effect

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Resilience-Driven Road Network Retrofit Optimization Subject to tropical cyclones Induced Roadside Tree Blowdown

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第1期12卷 72-89页

作者： Fuyu Hu Saini Yang Russell G.Thompson Theoretical Division Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM 87545USA Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs&Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Engineering The University of MelbourneMelbourne 3052Australia

This article focuses on decision making for retrofit investment of road networks in order to alleviate severe consequences of roadside tree blowdown during tropical *** consequences include both the physical damage associated with roadside trees and the functional degradation associated with road networks.A trilevel,two-stage,and multiobjective stochastic mathematical model was developed to dispatch limited resources to retrofit the roadside trees of a road *** the model,a new metric was designed to evaluate the performance of a road network;resilience was considered from robustness and recovery efficiency of a road *** proposed model is at least a nondeterministic polynomialtime hardness(NP-hard)problem,which is unlikely to be solved by a polynomial time ***-optimal solutions for this problem can be obtained by a proposed trilevel *** random forest method was employed to transform the trilevel algorithm into a singlelevel algorithm in order to decrease the computation *** tree retrofit of a provincial highway network on Hainan Island,China was selected as a case area because it suffers severely from tropical cyclones every year,where there is an urgency to upgrade roadside trees against tropical *** found that roadside tree retrofit investment significantly alleviates the expected economic losses of roadside tree blowdown,at the same time that it promotes robustness and expected recovery efficiency of the road network.

关键词： Hainan Island Nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II(NSGA II) Random forest method Road network resilience Roadside tree retrofit tropical cyclones

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Southwesterly Water Vapor Transport Induced by tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during the South Asian Monsoon Transition Period

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 140-153页

作者： Beiyao LIU Ying LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Based on best-track,outgoing longwave radiation,sea surface temperature,and reanalysis data during 1979-2018,statistical and composite analyses were performed to investigate characteristics of the southwesterly water vapor transport(WVT)induced by Bay of Bengal(BoB)tropical cyclones(TCs)during the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)transition *** results show that the BoB TCs mainly occur several days before/after the date of SASM onset(retreat)in May(October-November),thereby imposing an important impact on southwesterly WVT to China in those two *** WVT is significant in the middle and lower troposphere during the bimodal peak periods of BoB TCs,with large values over the east-central BoB,southeastern Tibetan Plateau,and Southwest and South *** WVT is located more northward at 500 hPa than at 700 hPa,reaching close to 35°N and covering the southeastern Tibetan Plateau owing to weakening of the plateau’s blocking effect at upper *** BoB TCs mainly increase the northward and eastward WVT anomalies compared to the climatological ***,the large southerly WVT anomalies are located in the lower troposphere in low-latitude areas,while the large westerly WVT anomalies appear mainly in the middle troposphere in high-latitude *** indicates an enhanced WVT channel where the southwesterly moisture jet first climbs northwards to the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and then turns eastwards to East China under the influence of the BoB ***,the southwesterly WVT during the TC period in May is stronger and more widespread than that in October-November,being about twice the latter in ***,their maximum contributions to the climatological average do not differ much,with maximums of 12%and19%occurring in Southwest China during the bimodal periods,respectively,implying an important role played by the BoB TCs in the WVT.

关键词： tropical cyclones Bay of Bengal South Asian summer monsoon southwesterly water vapor transport anomalous characteristics

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Hazard Footprint-Based Normalization of Economic Losses from tropical cyclones in China During 1983–2015

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第2期9卷 195-206页

作者： Wenfang Chen Yi Lu Shao Sun Yihong Duan Gregor C.Leckebusch State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration School of Geography Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of Birmingham

Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, *** factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.

关键词： China Direct economic loss Loss normalization tropical cyclones Typhoon disaster risk

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