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Glacial debris flow susceptibility mapping based on combined models in the Parlung Tsangpo Basin,China

Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第4期21卷 1231-1245页

作者： ZHOU Yonghao HU Xiewen XI Chuanjie WEN Hong CAO Xichao JIN Tao ZHOU Ruichen ZHANG Yu GONG Xueqiang Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengdu 611756China School of Architecture and Civil Engineering Xihua UniversityChengdu 610039China

Machine learning(ML)-based prediction models for mapping hazard(e.g.,landslide and debris flow)susceptibility have been widely developed in recent research.However,in some specific areas,ML models have limited application because of the uncertainties in identifying negative samples.The Parlung Tsangpo Basin exemplifies a region prone to recurrent glacial debris flows(GDFs)and is characterized by a prominent landform featuring deep gullies.Considering the limitations of the ML model,we developed and compared two combined statistical models(FA-WE and FA-IC)based on factor analysis(FA),weight of evidence(WE),and the information content(IC)method.The final GDF susceptibility maps were generated by selecting 8 most important static factors and considering the influence of precipitation.The results show that the FA-IC model has the best performance.The areas with a very high susceptibility to GDFs are primarily located in the narrow valley section upstream,on both sides of the valley in the middle and downstream of the Parlung Tsangpo River,and in the narrow valley section of each tributary.These areas encompass 86 gullies and are characterized as"narrow and steep".

关键词： Parlung Tsangpo Basin Glacial debris flow Factor analysis susceptibility mapping Weight of evidence Information content method.

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Modelling of debris-flow susceptibility and propagation: a case study from Northwest Himalaya

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第1期21卷 200-217页

作者： Hamza DAUD Javed Iqbal TANOLI Sardar Muhammad ASIF Muhammad QASIM Muhammad ALI Junaid KHAN Zahid Imran BHATTI Ishtiaq Ahmad Khan JADOON Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Department of Earth Sciences COMSATS University IslamabadAbbottabad Campus 22010Pakistan Department of Earth Sciences Sultan Qaboos UniversityAl-KhoudMascat 123Oman Faculty of Engineering China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)Wuhan 430074China Department of Earth Sciences Abbottabad University of Science and TechnologyHavelian 22500Pakistan

The geological and geographical position of the Northwest Himalayas makes it a vulnerable area for mass movements particularly landslides and debris flows. Mass movements have had a substantial impact on the study area which is extending along Karakorum Highway(KKH) from Besham to Chilas. Intense seismicity, deep gorges, steep terrain and extreme climatic events trigger multiple mountain hazards along the KKH, among which debris flow is recognized as the most destructive geohazard. This study aims to prepare a field-based debris flow inventory map at a regional scale along a 200 km stretch from Besham to Chilas. A total of 117 debris flows were identified in the field, and subsequently, a point-based debris-flow inventory and catchment delineation were performed through Arc GIS analysis. Regional scale debris flow susceptibility and propagation maps were prepared using Weighted Overlay Method(WOM) and Flow-R technique sequentially. Predisposing factors include slope, slope aspect, elevation, Topographic Roughness Index(TRI), Topographic Wetness Index(TWI), stream buffer, distance to faults, lithology rainfall, curvature, and collapsed material layer. The dataset was randomly divided into training data(75%) and validation data(25%). Results were validated through the Receiver Operator Characteristics(ROC) curve. Results show that Area Under the Curve(AUC) using WOM model is 79.2%. Flow-R propagation of debris flow shows that the 13.15%, 22.94%, and 63.91% areas are very high, high, and low susceptible to debris flow respectively. The propagation predicated by Flow-R validates the naturally occurring debris flow propagation as observed in the field surveys. The output of this research will provide valuable input to the decision makers for the site selection, designing of the prevention system, and for the protection of current infrastructure.

关键词： North Pakistan Debris flow Flow-R Propagation susceptibility mapping Debris-flow inventory Weighted Overlay Method

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Machine learning-based prediction of sand and dust storm sources in arid Central Asia

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2023年第1期16卷 1530-1550页

作者： Wei Wang Alim Samat Jilili Abuduwaili Philippe De Maeyer Tim Van de Voorde State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqiPeople’s Republic of China Research Centre for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqiPeople’s Republic of China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingPeople’s Republic of China Department of Geography Ghent UniversityGhentBelgium Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information GhentBelgium Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information UrumqiPeople’s Republic of China

With the emergence of multisource data and the development of cloud computing platforms,accurate prediction of event-scale dust source regions based on machine learning(ML)methods should be considered,especially accounting for the temporal variability in sample and predictor variables.Arid Central Asia(ACA)is recognized as one of the world’s primary potential sand and dust storm(SDS)sources.In this study,based on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform,four ML methods were used for SDS source prediction in ACA.Fourteen meteorological and terrestrial factors were selected as influencing factors controlling SDS source susceptibility and applied in the modeling process.Generally,the results revealed that the random forest(RF)algorithm performed best,followed by the gradient boosting tree(GBT),maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model and support vector machine(SVM).The Gini impurity index results of the RF model indicated that the wind speed played the most important role in SDS source prediction,followed by the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).This study could facilitate the development of programs to reduce SDS risks in arid and semiarid regions,particularly in ACA.

关键词： susceptibility mapping event scale google earth engine(GEE) remote sensing

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