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Origin of the spatial consistency of summer precipitation variability between the Mongolian Plateau and the mid-latitude East Asian summer monsoon region

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1199-1208页

作者： Jie CHEN Wei HUANG Qiong ZHANG Song FENG Key Laboratory of Western China s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Department of Geosciences University of ArkansasFayetteville 72701USA

The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.

关键词： Mongolian Plateau Mid-latitude EASM region summer precipitation Decadal Consistent variability

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On the Relationship between the Winter Eurasian Teleconnection Pattern and the Following summer precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第6期33卷 743-752页

作者： Junhu ZHAO Liu YANG Bohui GU Jie YANG Guolin FENG Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Department of Physical Science and Technology Yangzhou UniversityYangzhou 225002 College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 Jiangsu Provincial Climate Center Nanjing 210008

The Eurasian teleconnection pattern （EU） is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes is defined as the EU index （EUIv）. In this study, the relationship between the winter EUIv and precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive （negative） correlation between the winter EUIv and the following summer precipitation over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）. Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980s. Thus, the proposed EUIv may have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUIv years, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed--over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid-high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive （negative） precipitation anomalies over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）, and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUIv-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific.

关键词： Eurasian teleconnection summer precipitation North China Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins

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Comparison of Products from ERA-40,NCEP-2,and CRU with Station Data for summer precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2006年第4期23卷 593-604页

作者：赵天保符淙斌 Global Change System for Analysis Research and Training Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East AsiaInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

summer precipitation products from the 45-Year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast （ECMWF） Reanalysis （ERA-40）, and NCEP-Department of Energy （DOE） Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP-II） Reanaiysis （NCEP-2）, and Climatic Research Unit （CRU） TS 2.1 dataset are compared with the corresponding observations over China in order to understand the quality and utility of the reanalysis datasets for the period 1979-2001. The results reveal that although the magnitude and location of the rainfall belts differ among the reanaiysis, CRU, and station data over South and West China, the spatial distributions show good agreement over most areas of China. In comparison with the observations in most areas of China, CRU best matches the observed summer precipitation, while ERA-40 reports less precipitation and NCEP-2 reports more precipitation than the observations. With regard to the amplitude of the interannuai variations, CRU is better than either of the reanalyses in representing the corresponding observations. The amplitude in NCEP-2 is stronger but that of ERA-40 is weaker than the observations in most study domains. NCEP-2 has a more obvious interannuai variability than ERA-40 or CRU in most areas of East China. Through an Empirical orthogonai function （EOF） analysis, the main features of the rainfall belts produced by CRU agree better with the observations than with those produced by the reanalyses in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley. In East of China, particularly in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley, CRU can reveal the quasi-bienniai oscillation of summer precipitation represented by the observations, but the signal of ERA-40 is comparatively weak and not very obvious, whereas that of NCEP-2 is also weak before 1990 but very strong after 1990. The results also suggest that the magnitude of the precipitation difference between ERA-40 and the observations is smaller than that between NCEP-2 and the observations, but the variations represented by NCEP-2

关键词： summer precipitation reanalysis, observations, comparison

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Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China summer precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第9期40卷 1632-1648页

作者： Chujie GAO Gen LI College of Oceanography&State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210024China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation,which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).In this study,results show that spring soil moisture(SM)over the Indo-China peninsula(ICP)could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO *** springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP,they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern *** resultant south-to-north,tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased(decreased)precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased(increased)in South and North China with a drier(wetter)spring soil condition in the *** analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying *** the case of ENSO forcing,the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is ***,in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter,the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature,which could,in turn,lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon *** present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China,which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.

关键词： summer precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation soil moisture Indo-China Peninsula eastern China East Asian summer monsoon

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Seasonal Predictions of summer precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with Global and Regional Models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1561-1578页

作者： Wushan YING Huiping YAN Jing-Jia LUO Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/ILCEC Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal *** study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously SINTEX-F).The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands,initialized from 1 *** addition,the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,but the individual members show great discrepancies,indicating large uncertainty in the ***,the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020,albeit with underestimated *** Weather Forecast and Research(WRF)downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km,which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method,display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some ***,the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill,suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

关键词： seasonal forecast summer precipitation global climate model WRF downscaling

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Numerical Simulation of the Impact of Vegetation Index on the Interannual Variation of summer precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第6期22卷 865-876页

作者：李伟平薛永康 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Department of Geography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of California at Los Angeles California USA

Two sets of numerical experiments using the coupled National Center for Environmental Prediction General Circulation Model （NCEP/GCM T42L18） and the Simplified Simple Biosphere land surface scheme （SSiB） were carried out to investigate the climate impacts of fractional vegetation cover （FVC） and leaf area index （LAI） on East Asia summer precipitation, especially in the Yellow River Basin （YRB）. One set employed prescribed FVC and LAI which have no interannual variations based on the climatology of vegetation distribution; the other with FVC and LAI derived from satellite observations of the International Satellite Land Surface Climate Project （ISLSCP） for 1987 and 1988. The simulations of the two experiments were compared to study the influence of FVC, LAI on summer precipitation interannual variation in the YRB. Compared with observations and the NCEP reanalysis data, the experiment that included both the effects of satellite-derived vegetation indexes and sea surface temperature （SST） produced better seasonal and interannual precipitation variations than the experiment with SST but no interannual variations in FVC and LAI, indicating that better representations of the vegetation index and its interannual variation may be important for climate prediction. The difference between 1987 and 1988 indicated that with the increase of FVC and LAI, especially around the YRB, surface albedo decreased, net surface radiation increased, and consequently local evaporation and precipitation intensified. Further more, surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature and its diurnal variation decreased around the YRB in response to more vegetation. The decrease of surface-emitting longwave radiation due to the cooler surface outweighed the decrease of surface solar radiation income with more cloud coverage, thus maintaining the positive anomaly of net surface radiation. Further study indicated that moisture flux variations associated with changes in the general circulation also cont

关键词： numerical simulation vegetation index interannual variation summer precipitation Yellow River basiu

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Connections between Surface Sensible Heat Net Flux and Regional summer precipitation over China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2004年第6期21卷 897-908页

作者：汤燕冰 Department of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310028

Using the observed monthly precipitation and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis surface ?ux data from 1951–2000, the connections between the seasonal SSHNF (Surface Sensible Heat Net Flux) over the Asian continent and the regional summer precipitation of China were examined. The patterns of collective and individual correlations were identi?ed. The results indicate that the response of the regional summer precipitation of China to the seasonal SSHNF over the study area varies according to region and season. The interannual variability of summer precipitation anomalies over Xinjiang, the northernmost Northeast China, and the North China Plain are most sensitive to the anomaly of the seasonal SSHNF. There are signi?cant collective correlations between the interannual anomalies of the seasonal SSHNF and summer precipitation over these regions. In contrast, the Southeast Tibetan Plateau, Huaihe River Valley, and surrounding areas exhibit the least signi?cant correlation. Signi?cant individual correlations exist between the summer precipitation over the southernmost Northeast China, East Inner Mongolia, South of the Yangtze River and South China and the seasonal SSHNF in certain seasons over the following areas: near Lake Baikal and Lake Balkhash, near Da Hinggan Mountains and Xiao Hinggan Mountains, as well as the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： surface sensible heat flux summer precipitation correlation analysis

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Impact of the Anomalous Thawing in the Tibetan Plateau on summer precipitation in China and Its Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第2期22卷 238-245页

作者：高荣韦志刚董文杰钟海玲 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Beijing 100029 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research InstituteChinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Beijing 100029 National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081

The impact of the anomalous thawing of frozen soil in the late spring on the summer precipitation in China and its possible mechanism are analyzed in the context of the frozen soil thawing date data of the 50 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau, and the NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data. Results show that the thawing dates of the Tibetan Plateau gradually become earlier from 1980 to 1999, which is consistent with the trend of global warming in the 20th century. Because differences in the thermal capacity and conductivity between frozen and unfrozen soils are larger, changes in the freezing/thawing process of soil may change the physical properties of the underlying surface, thus affecting exchanges of sensible and latent heat between the ground surface and air. The thermal state change of the plateau ground surface must lead to the thermal anomalies of the atmosphere over and around the plateau, and then further to the anomalies of the general atmospheric circulation. A possible mechanism for the impact of the thawing of the plateau on summer (July) precipitation may be as follows. When the frozen soil thaws early (late) in the plateau, the thermal capacity of the ground surface is large (small), and the thermal conductivity is small (large), therefore, the thermal exchanges between the ground surface and the air are weak (strong). The small (large) ground surface sensible and latent heat fluxes lead to a weak (strong) South Asian high, a weak (strong) West Pacific subtropical high and a little to south (north) of its normal position. Correspondingly, the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened) and precipitation increases (decreases) in South China, while in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, the ascending motion and precipitation show the opposite trend.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau thawing of frozen soil summer precipitation

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Multi-Scheme Corrected Dynamic–Analogue Prediction of summer precipitation in Northeastern China Based on BCC_CSM

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第6期31卷 1085-1095页

作者： Yihe FANG Haishan CHEN Zhiqiang GONG Fangshu XU Chunyu ZHAO Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Changeand School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 Regional Climate Center of Shenyang Shenyang 110016 Laboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Monitoring and Diagnose National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Liaoning Meteorological Service Center Shenyang 110016

Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991-2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM）, the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China （NEC） and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic-analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic-analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） of summer precipitation is respectively improved from -0. 13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009-13/1991-95 when using the equally weighted dynamic-analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.

关键词： summer precipitation northeastern China sea surface temperature El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model dynamic–analogue correction probabilistic prediction

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Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第4期14卷 502-510页

作者： Xuan LIU Ming-Xiang YANG Ning-Peng DONG Wei-Ning XIE Hong-Gang LI Zhen GUAN Fan WEN Hao WANG Deliang CHEN College of Civil Engineering Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300354China State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety&Hydro Science Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hainan Province Hainan 571126China Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower INC. Kunming 650214China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg S-40530Sweden

The Three-River Headwaters(TRH)region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change;changes in summer(June–August)precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream ***,the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region,along with their influencing factors,remain *** this study,we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor *** results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 per year(pprecipitation’(10 mm d−1)contributed 65.1%of the increased summer precipitation,which occurred frequently in the northern TRH *** dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each *** water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region(158.2%),while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH(155.2%)and eastern TRH(229.2%)***,we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased‘very heavy precipitation’over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.

关键词： summer precipitation Three-river headwaters region precipitation intensity Water vapor budget

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