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Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第6期14卷 7-13页

作者： L.A.D Buddika Bandurathna Lu Wang Xuan Zhou Yifeng Cheng Lin Chen Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdaoChina

Sri Lanka,a small island country located near the southernmost end of the Indian subcontinent,is controlled by the southwest monsoon(SWM)during May to September,when it suffers the most accumulated rainfall in a *** with extensive studies on the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of the Indian monsoon,less attention has been paid to the ISO of the SWM over Sri *** on observational data,this study reveals that the leading mode of SWM rainfall shows a significant variability on a 10-35-day time scale,and it accounts for 66%of the fractional *** development of the intraseasonal rainfall anomaly is associated with a westward propagating anomalous cyclonic ***,the skill of current dynamic models in simulating the SWM on the subseasonal time scale was evaluated by using the ECMWF(European center for Medium-Range Weather forecasts)reforecast data from S2S(the subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project).In general,the model is more skillful in predicting the monsoonal wind index than the monsoonal rainfall index,with the skill for the former being beyond 30 days and the latter about two *** forecast skills exhibit prominent interannual differences for both *** is suggested that a correct simulation of the large-scale circulation response to tropical convection is crucial for the subseasonal prediction of monsoonal rainfall over Sri Lanka.

关键词： Intraseasonal oscillation Sri Lanka Southwest monsoon subseasonal forecast

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Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第6期14卷 60-65页

作者： Xuan Zhou Lin Chen Janet Umuhoza Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Ran Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina College of Atmospheric ScienceNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Rwanda Meteorology AgencyKigaliRwanda

Rwanda is a landlocked country in central-eastern *** a country highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture,Rwanda is vulnerable to rainfall *** data show that there are two rainy seasons in Rwanda,i.e.,the long rainy season and the short rainy *** study mainly focuses on the dominant intraseasonal rainfall mode during the long rainy season(February-May),and evaluates the forecast skill for the intraseasonal variability(ISV)over Rwanda and its surrounding regions in a state-of-the-art dynamic *** the long rainy season,observational results reveal that the dominant intraseasonal rainfall mode in Rwanda exhibits a significant variability on the 10-25-day time ***-point-correlation analysis further unveils that the 10-25-day intraseasonal rainfall variability in Rwanda co-varies with that in its adjacent areas,indicating that the overall 10-25-day rainfall variability in Rwanda and its adjacent regions(8°S-3°N,29°-37°E)should be considered collectively when studying the dominant intraseasonal rainfall variability in *** results show that the development of the 10-25-day rainfall variability is associated with the anomalous westerly wind in Rwanda and its surrounding regions,which may trace back to a pair of westward-propagating equatorial Rossby *** on the observational findings,an ISO_rainfall_index and an ISO_wind_index are proposed for quantitatively evaluating the forecast *** ECMWF model has a comparable skill in predicting the wind index and the rainfall index,with both indices showing a skill of 18 days.

关键词： Intraseasonal oscillation Rwanda Intraseasonal rainfall variability subseasonal forecast

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