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subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2127-2134页

作者： Yu NIE Jie WU Jinqing ZUO Hong-Li REN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Steven C.HARDIMAN China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Institute of Tibetan Plateau&Polar MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100089China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom University of Exeter Exeter EX13PBUnited Kingdom

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas.Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance.Using two dynamical forecasting systems,one from the Beijing Climate Center(BCC-CSM2-HR)and the other from the Met Office(GloSea5),this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off lows.Both models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows,but they underestimate the intensity.The skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in advance.Further examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train,rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows,but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage processes.The underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

关键词： Northeast Asia cut-off lows subseasonal prediction skill jet stream

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Mechanism of Regional subseasonal Precipitation in the Strongest and Weakest East Asian Summer Monsoon subseasonal Variation Years

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2022年第6期21卷 1411-1427页

作者： HU Haibo DENG Yuheng FANG Jiabei WANG Rongrong CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies Instituted for Climate and Global Change ResearchSchool of Atmospheric ScienceNanjing UniversityNanjing 210093China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Using the National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis coupled dataset during 1979–2010,we selected four subseasonal indexes from the 16 East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)indexes to characterize the subseasonal variability of the entire EASM system.The strongest(1996)and weakest(1998)years of the subseasonal variation were revealed based on these subseasonal EASM indexes.Furthermore,three rainfall concentration areas were defined in East Asia,and these areas were dissected by the atmospheric midlatitude jet stream axis and the position of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High(WNPSH).Then,the subseasonal effects of the WNPSH,the South Asian High(SAH),the Mongolian Cyclone(MC),and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)on each rainfall concentration area were studied in the strongest and weakest subseasonal variation years of the EASM.During the summer of 1998,the WNPSH and the SAH were stable in the more southern region,which not only blocked the northward progression of the BSISO but also caused the MC to advance southward.Therefore,the summer of 1998 was the weakest subseasonal variability of the EASM,but with significant subseasonal precipitation episodes in the northern and central rainfall areas.However,in 1996,the BSISO repeatedly spread northward in the south rainfall area because of the weak intensities and northern positions of the WNPSH and the SAH,which caused significant subseasonal precipitation episodes.In addition,MC was blocked to the north of approximately 42°N with a weak subseasonal rainfall.

关键词： East Asian Summer Monsoon subseasonal Western North Pacific Subtropical High Mongolian Cyclone Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

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subseasonal Change in the Seesaw Pattern of Precipitation between the Yangtze River Basin and the TropicalWestern North Pacific during Summer

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第10期35卷 1231-1242页

作者： Xinyu LI Riyu LU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

There is a well-known seesaw pattern of precipitation between the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) and the Yangtze River basin(YRB) during summer. This study identified that this out-of-phase relationship experiences a subseasonal change;that is, the relationship is strong during early summer but much weaker during mid-summer. We investigated the large-scale circulation anomalies responsible for the YRB rainfall anomalies on the subseasonal timescale. It was found that the YRB rainfall is mainly affected by the tropical circulation anomalies during early summer, i.e., the anticyclonic or cyclonic anomaly over the subtropical WNP associated with the precipitation anomalies over the tropical WNP. During mid-summer, the YRB rainfall is mainly affected by the extratropical circulation anomalies in both the lower and upper troposphere. In the lower troposphere, the northeasterly anomaly north of the YRB favors heavier rainfall over the YRB by intensifying the meridional gradient of the equivalent potential temperature over the YRB. In the upper troposphere, the meridional displacement of the Asian westerly jet and the zonally oriented teleconnection pattern along the jet also affect the YRB rainfall. The subseasonal change in the WNP–YRB precipitation relationship illustrated by this study has important implications for the subseasonalto-seasonal forecasting of the YRB rainfall.

关键词： Yangtze River basin tropical western North Pacific precipitation subseasonal change

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Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第2期12卷 136-150页

作者： Carl J.Schreck III Frederic Vitart Suzana J.Camargo Joanne Camp James Darlow Russell Elsberry Jon Gottschalck Paul Gregory Kurt Hansen Justyn Jackson Matthew A.Janiga Philip J.Klotzbach Chia-Ying Lee Lindsey Long Masuo Nakano Kazuto Takemura Yuhei Takaya Michael J.Ventrice Zhuo Wang Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies North Carolina State UniversityUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts UK Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityUSA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Naval Postgraduate School USA Climate Prediction Center NOAAUSA hNational Research CouncilUSA U.S.Air Force USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Colorado State University USA ERT Inc.USA Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Japan Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyJapan DRW Holdings USA University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign USA

This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability during the past four years.A large effort by the scientiﬁc community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).In particular,the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Paciﬁc by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation(BSISO)has been documented.Progress has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal forecasts.In addition,several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of TCs.Analyses of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)and subseasonal Experiment(SubX)have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its impacts.The skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).More extensive veriﬁcation studies have been published over the last four years,but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Paciﬁc.

关键词： Tropical cyclones subseasonal Forecasts Hurricanes MJO

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Representation and Predictability of the East Asia-Pacific Teleconnection in the Beijing Climate Center and UK Met Office subseasonal Prediction Systems

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 941-964页

作者： Jie WU Peiqun ZHANG Lei LI Hong-Li REN Xiangwen LIU Adam A.SCAIFE Shuai ZHANG Laboratory far Climate Studies&China Meteorological Administration-Nanjing University Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Secretariat of Jiangxi Meteorological Society Nanchang 330096China Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China

Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis, the East Asia–Pacific(EAP) teleconnection is extracted as the leading mode of the subseasonal variability over East Asia in summer, with a meridional tripole structure and significant periods of 10–30 and 50–70 days. A two-dimensional phase–space diagram is established for the EAP index and its time tendency so as to monitor the real-time state of EAP events. Based on the phase composite analysis, the general circulation anomalies first occur over the high-latitude area of Europe centered near Novaya Zemlya at the beginning of EAP events. These general circulation anomalies then influence rainfall over Northeast China,North China, and the region south of the Yangtze River valley(YRV) as the phases of EAP event progress. The representation, predictability, and prediction skill of the EAP teleconnection are examined in the two fully coupled subseasonal prediction systems of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC) and UK Met Office(UKMO GloSea5). Both models are able to simulate the EAP meridional tripole over East Asia as the leading mode and its characteristics of evolution as well, except for the weaker precursors over Novaya Zemlya and an inconspicuous influence on precipitation over Northeast China. The actual prediction skill of the EAP teleconnection during May–September(MJJAS) is about 10 days in the BCC model and 15 days in the UKMO model based on correlation measures, but is higher when initialized from the EAP peak phases or when targeted on strong EAP scenarios. However, both of the ensemble prediction systems are under-dispersive and the predictable signals extend to 18 and 30 days in BCC and UKMO models based on signal-to-error metrics, indicating that there may be further scope for enhancing the capability of these models for the EAP teleconnection prediction and the associated impacts studies.

关键词： East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection subseasonal phase–space diagram prediction skill predictability

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TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION ON subseasonal TIME-SCALES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 150-165页

作者： Suzana J.Camargo Joanne Camp Russell L.Elsberry Paul A.Gregory Philip J.Klotzbach Carl J.Schreck III Adam H.Sobel Michael J.Ventrice Frédéric Vitart Zhuo Wang Matthew C.Wheeler Munehiko Yamaguchi and Ruifen Zhan Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA Met Office ExeterUnited Kingdom Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate SchoolMontereyCA and TraumaHealthand Hazards CenterUniversity of Colorado-Colorado SpringsColorado SpringsCOUSA Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoriaAustralia Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina(CICS-NC) North Carolina State UniversityAshevilleNCUSA Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA Weather Company/IBM AndoverMAUSA European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUnited Kingdom Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of IllinoisUrbana-ChampagneILUSA Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyTsukubaIbarikiJapan Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina

Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone(TC)subseasonal variability and its prediction.There has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales,and this effort has continued to make progress in recent years.Besides the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO),other modes of variability affect TCs at these time-scales,in particular various equatorial waves.Additionally,TC activity is also modulated by extratropical processes via Rossby wave breaking.There has also been progress in the ability of models to simulate the MJO and its modulation of TC activity.Community efforts have created multi-model ensemble datasets,which have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of the MJO and TCs on subseasonal time-scales in multiple forecasting systems.While there is positive skill in some cases,there is strong dependence on the ensemble system considered,the basin examined,and whether the storms have extratropical influences or not.Furthermore,the definition of skill differs among studies.Forecasting centers are currently issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques(statistical,statistical-dynamical and dynamical).There is also a strong interest in the private sector for forecasts with 3-4 weeks lead time.

关键词： tropical cyclones subseasonal forecasts hurricanes MJO

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Peculiar　Temporal　Structure　of　the　South　China　Sea　Summer　Monsoon

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 1997年第2期14卷 54-71页

作者： Bin Wang Renguang Wu Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii USA

ＰｅｃｕｌｉａｒＴｅｍｐｏｒａｌＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅＳｏｕｔｈＣｈｉｎａＳｅａＳｕｍｍｅｒＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＢｉｎＷａｎｇ①ａｎｄＲｅｎｇｕａｎｇＷｕＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ，Ｕｎｉｖｅｒｓ... 详细信息

ＰｅｃｕｌｉａｒＴｅｍｐｏｒａｌＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅＳｏｕｔｈＣｈｉｎａＳｅａＳｕｍｍｅｒＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＢｉｎＷａｎｇ①ａｎｄＲｅｎｇｕａｎｇＷｕＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ，ＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙｏｆＨａｗａｉ，ＵＳＡＲｅｃ...

关键词： Monsoon over SCS subseasonal cycles, Spectrum of precipitation, Bi-modal interannual variation

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27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide

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Science China Earth Sciences 2007年第9期50卷 1380-1395页

作者： LI GuoQing ZONG HaiFeng Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

An analysis of time variations in the earth's length of day (LOD) for 25 years (1973-1998) versus at- mospheric circulation changes and lunar phase is presented. It is found that, on the average, there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day period oscillation in global zonal wind speed, atmospheric geopotential height, and LOD following alternating changes in lunar phase. Every 5-9 days (6.8 days on average), the fields of global atmospheric zonal wind and geopotential height and LOD undergo a sudden change in rela- tion to a change in lunar declination. The observed atmospheric oscillation with this time period may be viewed as a type of atmospheric tide. Ten atmospheric tidal cases have been analyzed by comparing changes in LOD, global zonal wind speed and atmospheric geopotential height versus change in lunar declination. Taken together these cases reveal prominent 27.3-day and 13.6-day tides. The lunar forcing on the earth's atmosphere is great and obvious changes occur in global fields of zonal wind speed and atmospheric geopotential height over the equatorial and low latitude areas. The driving force for the 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tides is the periodic change in lunar forcing during the moon's revolution around the earth. When the moon is located on the celestial equator the lunar declination equals zero and the lunar tidal forcing on the atmosphere reaches its maximum, at this time the global zonal wind speed increases and the earth's rotation rate decreases and LOD increases. Conversely, when the moon reaches its most northern or southern positions the lunar declination is maximized, lunar tidal forcing decreases, global zonal wind speed decreases, earth's rotation rate increases and LOD decreases. 27.3-day and 13.6-day period atmospheric tides deserve deeper study. Lunar tidal forcing should be considered in models of atmospheric circulation and in short and medium range weather forecasting.

关键词： atmospheric tide, earth's rotation, subseasonal oscillation, atmospheric circulation, lunar forcing

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