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The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science

Journal of Forensic Science and Medicine 2015年第2期1卷 140-148页

作者： Alex Biedermann Faculty of Law Criminal Justice and Public AdministrationSchool of Criminal JusticeUniversity of Lausanne1015 Lausanne-DorignySwitzeriand

This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce *** it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent proceedings,there remain diverging and conflicting views on how probability ought to be *** is exemplified by the proposals in scientific literature that call for procedures of probability computation that are referred to as"objective,"suggesting that scientists ought to use them in their reporting to recipients of expert information.I find such proposals *** need to be viewed cautiously,essentially because ensuing probabilistic statements can be perceived as making forensic science prescriptive.A motivating example from the context of forensic DNA analysis will be chosen to illustrate *** a main point,it shall be argued that such constraining suggestions can be avoided by interpreting probability as a measure of personal belief,that is,subjective *** references to foundational literature from mathematical statistics and philosophy of science,the discussion will explore the consequences of this interdisciplinary viewpoint for the practice of forensic expert *** will be emphasized that-as an operational interpretation of probability_the subjectivist perspective enables forensic science to add value to the legal process,in particular by avoiding inferential impasses to which other interpretations of probability may ***,understanding probability from a subjective perspective can encourage participants in the legal process to take on more responsibility in matters regarding the coherent handling of *** would assure more balanced interactions at the interface between science and the ***,in turn,provides support for ongoing developments that can be called the"probabilization"of forensic science.

关键词： Forensic science legal process subjective probability uncertainty reduction

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Savage's Concept of probability

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中山大学学报（社会科学版） 2003年第S1期43卷 97-100页

作者：熊卫中山大学逻辑与认知研究所

Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...

关键词： subjective probability Preference Decision

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Certainty-based Preference Completion

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Data Intelligence 2022年第1期4卷 112-133页

作者： Li L. Xue M. Zhang Z. Chen H. Wu X. Key Laboratory of Knowledge Engineering with Big Data Hefei University of Technology Ministry of Education Hefei 230009 China School of Computer Science and Information Engineering Hefei University of Technology Hefei 230009 China School of Computer Science and Technology University of Science and Technology of China Hefei 230026 China

Lei Li1,2, Minghe Xue2, Zan Zhang2, Huanhuan Chen3&Xindong Wu1

关键词： Certainty Conflict Nondeterministic Preference completion subjective probability

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Understanding Expected Utility for Decision Making

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Management Studies 2023年第2期11卷 93-104页

作者： Somdeb Lahiri LJ University AhmedabadIndia

In this paper,we present a brief version of de Finetti-Ramsey’s subjective probability theory and provide a rigorous yet intuitively plausible explanation of expected utility using elementary *** a final section,we take up the case of some“Paradoxes in Expected Utility Theory”and try to reconcile them with the help of subjective probabilities.

关键词： subjective probability uncertain prospects expected utility of monetary gains

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