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Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 257-268页

作者： Weilai PEI Shiyong ZHOU Jiancang ZHUANG Ziyao XIONG Jian PIAO School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Research Organization of Information and SystemsTokyo 1908562Japan

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.

关键词： Statistical seismology Earthquake prediction Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment stress release model Epidemic type aftershock sequence model

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