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The storm tracks Response to Changes in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentration at the South of Brazil and Southwest Atlantic Ocean

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2019年第4期9卷 545-557页

作者： Rose Ane Pereira De Freitas Fernanda Casagrande Douglas Da Silva Lindemann Maria Angélica Gonçalves Cardoso Jeferson Prietsch Machado Forecasting and Meteorological Research Center Federal University of Pelotas(UFPEL)PelotasBrazil Earth System Science Centre(CCST-INPE) National Institute for Space Research(INPE)Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil Federal University of Santa Maria(UFSM) Santa MariaBrazil Oceanography Institute Federal University of Rio Grande(FURG)Rio GrandeBrazil

Here we investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling and the contribution of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations in: 1) Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region, 2) Southwest Atlantic Ocean and 3) Southern Brazil. Numerical simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled ocean-atmosphere model were used to analyze the changes in the seasonal trajectory of the extratropical cyclones, in terms of intensification of physical mechanisms and implications for future scenarios. The numerical experiment for the future scenario considered an atmospheric CO2 concentration of approximately 770 ppm, which represents an increment of more than 350 ppm over the current values recorded by the Mauna Loa reference station. For this scenario, the results indicated a storm tracks (ST) displacement of 5° latitude toward south and changes of the meridional transport of sensible heat, close to 50°S. The increase in SST induces ST intensification and consequently an increase in the occurrence of extratropical cyclones. Overall, in the BMC region, we found a change in the pattern of cyclogenetic activity occurrence, with less frequent, but more intense events. On the Southern Brazilian region, the results of this study indicate increases in rainfall during summer months, whereas, a decrease in frequency and an increase in intensity were found for wintertime. We suggest that these changes could impact the climate dynamic of the Brazilian South coast, with a magnitude yet unknown.

关键词： storm tracks Confluence Brazil-Malvinas Atlantic Ocean

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北太平洋阻塞的年际年代际变化及其与SST、遥相关及风暴路径的关系(英文)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2002年第5期19卷 807-820页

作者：黄菲周发琇钱筱丹 Department of Marine Meteorology Ocean University of Qingdao Qingdao

Climalological features of mid-latitude blocking occurring over the North Pacific Ocean during 52 winters (December to February) of 1948/1949-1999/2000 are statistically analyzed based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data. Significant interannual variation with a period of about 3-7 years as well as decadal variability is found by wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis. A decreasing trend of the 2-7 year bandscale-averaged variance occurs throughout the 52 years and an abrupt shift from a higher state to a lower state during the 1970s is also found, which suggests an interdecadal variation of the North Pacific blocking. The possible relationship between the variability of blocking and sea surface temperature (SST), storm tracks and teleconnection are shown using composite analysis. In strong blocking anomaly winter (SBW), the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa exhibits a typical PNA (Pacific-North American)-like wave-train pattern in the North Pacific. The storm tracks, representing the activity of transient eddies, extend northeastward to the western coast of North America along the mid latitudes of about 40°-50°N, with the SST anomaly exhibiting a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) mode at mid-latitude and a La Niña-like pattern along the equator. Contrasting features appear in weak blocking anomaly winter (WBW).

关键词： north Pacific blocking teleconnection SST anomaly storm tracks

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