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Effect of time-of-day and day-of-the-week on congestion duration and breakdown:A case study at a bottleneck in Salem,NH

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2017年第1期4卷 31-40页

作者： Eric M.Laflamme Paul J.Ossenbruggen Department of Mathematics Plymouth State UniversityPlymouthNH 03264USA Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of New HampshireDurhamNH 03824USA

This work uses regression models to analyze two characteristics of recurrent congestion： breakdown, the transition from freely flowing conditions to a congested state, and duration, the time between the onset and clearance of recurrent congestion. First, we apply a binary logistic regression model where a continuous measurement for traffic flow and a dichoto- mous categorical variable for time-of-day （AM- or PM-rush hours） is used to predict the probability of breakdown. Second, we apply an ordinary least squares regression model where categorical variables for time-of-day （AM- or PM-rush hours） and day-of-the-week （Monday-Thursday or Friday） are used to predict recurrent congestion duration. models are fitted to data collected from a bottleneck on 1-93 in Salem, NH, over a period of 9 months. Results from the breakdown model, predict probabilities of recurrent congestion, are consistent with observed traffic and illustrate an upshift in breakdown probabilities between the AM- and PM-rush periods. Results from the regression model for congestion duration reveal the presences of significant interaction between time-of-day and day-of-the-week. Thus, the effect of time-of-day on congestion duration depends on the day-of-the-week. This work provides a simplification of recurrent congestion and recovery, very noisy processes. Simplification, conveying complex relationships with simple statistical summaries-facts, is a practical and powerful tool for traffic administrators to use in the decision-making process.

关键词： stochastic models ordinary least squares regression binary logistic regression congestion duration breakdown

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