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Application and discussion of Statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 257-268页

作者： Weilai PEI Shiyong ZHOU Jiancang ZHUANG Ziyao XIONG Jian PIAO School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China The Institute of statistical Mathematics Research Organization of Information and SystemsTokyo 1908562Japan

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of Statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of Statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.

关键词： Statistical seismology Earthquake prediction Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment Stress release model Epidemic type aftershock sequence model

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A new multidimensional stress release statistical model based on coseismic stress transfer

A new multidimensional stress release statistical model base...

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中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所第11届（2011年度）...

作者： Yongshun John Chen Institute of Theoretical and Applied Geophysics School of Earth and Space SciencePeking University

SUMMARY Following the stress release model(SRM) proposed by Vere-Jones(1978),we developed a new multidimensional SRM,which is a space-time-magnitude version based on multidimensional point processes.First,we interpreted the exponential hazard functional of the SRM as the mathematical expression of static fatigue failure caused by stress corrosion.Then,we reconstructed the SRM in multidimensions through incorporating four independent submodels:the magnitude distribution function,the space weighting function,the loading rate function and the coseismic stress transfer model.Finally,we applied the new model to analyse the historical earthquake catalogues in North China.An expanded catalogue,which contains the information of origin time,epicentre,magnitude,strike,dip angle,rupture length,rupture width and average dislocation,is composed for the new model.The estimated model can simulate the variations of seismicity with space,time and magnitude.Compared with the previous SRMs with the same data,the new model yields much smaller values of Akaike information criterion and corrected Akaike information criterion.We compared the predicted rates of earthquakes at the epicentres just before the related earthquakes with the mean spatial seismic rate.Among all 37 earthquakes in the expanded catalogue,the epicentres of 21 earthquakes are located in the regions of higher rates.The map of predicted earthquake rates at the ending time(1997 January 1) suggests that the next destructive earthquake in North China is likely to occur in the regions south of Datong,north of Beijing and east of Hejian.

关键词： Probabilistic forecasting Earthquake interaction forecasting and prediction Seismicity and tectonics Statistical seismology

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