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Modeling the distribution of Aloe ankoberensis and A. debrana under different climate change scenarios in North Shewa Zone, Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

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Ecological Processes 2024年第2期13卷 260-278页

作者： Haile Abebe Anteneh Belayneh Desta Sintayehu Workneh Dejene Africa Center of Excellence in Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation Haramaya University School of Biological Sciences and Biotechnology College of Natural and Computational SciencesHaramaya University

Background Aloe ankoberensis M.G. Gilbert & Sebsebe and A. debrana Christian are Ethiopian endemic species currently classified as endangered and least concern, respectively under International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN) categories. Recent studies indicate that climate change is anticipated to significantly influence the distribution of plant species. Therefore, this study aimed to model the distribution of A. ankoberensis and A. debrana under different climate change scenarios in the North Shewa Zone, Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia. Thirty-six and 397 georeferenced presence points for A. ankoberensis and A. debrana, respectively, and 12 environmental variables were used to simulate their current and future distributions. The ensemble model approach was used to examine the current and future(2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for both species under three shared socio-economic pathway(SSP) climate scenarios(SSP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).Results The performance of ensemble model was excellent for A. ankoberensis with score of area under curve(AUC) 0.96 and true skill statistics(TSS) 0.88, and good for A. debrana with score of AUC 0.87 and TSS 0.63. The main variables that affected the species' distributions were mean diurnal range of temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation. According to the model, under the current climate conditions, 98.32%, 1.01%, 0.52%, and 0.15% were not suitable, lowly, moderately, and highly suitable areas, respectively for A. ankoberensis, and 63.89%, 23.35%, 12.54%, and 0.21% were not suitable, lowly, moderately and highly suitable areas, respectively for A. debrana. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats of these species could shrink. In addition, under all climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that highly suitable areas for both species and moderately suitable areas for A. ankoberensis will be lost completely in the future unless crucial interventions are done on *** The results indicat

关键词： Biodiversity Endemic Aloe Environmental variable Habitat suitability species distribution species extinction

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TIL20: A review of island biogeography and habitat fragmentation studies on subtropical reservoir islands of Thousand Island Lake, China

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Zoological Research(Diversity and Conservation) 2024年第2期1卷 89-105页

作者： Xingfeng Si Tinghao Jin Wande Li Peng Ren Qiang Wu Di Zeng Xue Zhang Yuhao Zhao Chen Zhu Ping Ding Zhejiang Zhoushan Island Ecosystem Observation and Research Station Institute of Eco-ChongmingZhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research StationSchool of Ecological and Environmental SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China MOE Key Laboratory of Biosystems Homeostasis&Protection College of Life SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhouZhejiang 310058China

Reservoir islands formed by dam construction have the same history,clear boundaries,and large numbers that provide a natural platform for testing theories in ecology and *** this paper,we review studies of multiple zoological taxa on reservoir islands of a large lake in eastern China(Thousand Island Lake).This lake,created in 1959,has 1078 artificial land-bridge islands of varying areas and *** review summarizes the decades-long studies in island biogeography and habitat fragmentation from this island system,grouped into three topics:species richness(“how many species are there”),community structure(“who are they”),and species interaction(“how they interact with each other”).Our findings support the predictions of the Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography and extend this theory to predict community structure of island faunas by moving beyond assumptions of species *** addition,the extensive studies on ecological networks,including mutualistic,antagonistic,and parasitic interactions,reveal the negative impacts of habitat loss on the maintenance of such networks,even as increasing forest edge enhances the robustness of pollination *** the end of this review,we proposed several future research directions based on current studies that are simultaneously at the frontier of ecology and biogeography.

关键词： Biodiversity conservation Community assembly species extinction Island species interaction

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Global Warming and the Power-Laws of Ecology

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2012年第1期2卷 8-13页

作者： Joao D.T.Arruda-Neto Maria C.Bittencourt-Oliveira Alrenice C.Castro Tulio E.Rodrigues Joseph Harari Joel Mesa Godofredo C.Genofre Physics Institute University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil CEPESq/UniItalo Italy-Brazilian University CenterSao PauloBrazil Laboratory of Cyanobacteria ESALQUniversity of Sao PauloPiracicabaBrazil PROCAM Interdisciplinary Graduate Program on Environmental SciencesUniversity of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Institute of Oceanography University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil Institute of Biosciences Sao Paulo State UniversityBotucatuBrazil Institute of Biosciences University of Sao PauloSao PauloBrazil

A model based on Watson’s power law for the species-area relationship predicts that full global warming, projected up to the year 2050, could provoke the disappearance of roughly one-quarter of existing species. Here, an alternative approach is worked out, based on the combination of two ecology laws: Taylor and Watson’s power laws, where the former relates species variability with their mean abundance. Just how severely global warming would affect not only the number but the diversity of the surviving species is addressed by this approach, while at the same time giving indications for the post-disaster fate of the remaining species (extinction or recovery).

关键词： Global Warming species extinction Ecology Power-Laws species Variability Model

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