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Epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis incidence and its macro-influence factors in Chinese mainland during 2014–2021

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贫困所致传染病(英文) 2024年第3期13卷 43-57页

作者： Deng Le-le Zhao Fei Li Zhuo-wei Zhang Wei-wei He Guang-xue Ren Xiang National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing China Department of Pharmacy Beijing Hospital National Center of Gerontology Institute of Geriatric Medicine Chinese Academy of Medical Science Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Clinical Risk and Personalized Medication Evaluation Beijing China Miyun District Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing China School Of Public Health Binzhon Medical University Yantai China Division of Infectious Disease Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning On Infectious Disease Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing China

Background Tuberculosis (TB) remains a pressing public health issue, posing a significant threat to individuals'' well-being and lives. This study delves into the TB incidence in Chinese mainland during 2014–2021, aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics and explore macro-level factors to enhance control and *** TB incidence data in Chinese mainland from 2014 to 2021 were sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS). A two-stage distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was constructed to evaluate the lag and non-linearity of daily average temperature (℃, Atemp), average relative humidity (%, ARH), average wind speed (m/s, AWS), sunshine duration (h, SD) and precipitation (mm, PRE) on the TB incidence. A spatial panel data model was used to assess the impact of demographic, medical and health resource, and economic factors on TB *** A total of 6,587,439 TB cases were reported in Chinese mainland during 2014–2021, with an average annual incidence rate of 59.17/100,000. The TB incidence decreased from 67.05/100,000 in 2014 to 46.40/100,000 in 2021, notably declining from 2018 to 2021 (APC =-8.87%, 95%CI: -11.97, -6.85%). TB incidence rates were higher among males, farmers, and individuals aged 65 years and older. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a significant cluster in Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Xizang from March 2017 to June 2019 (RR= 3.94,P 71.73%), low sunshine duration (spatial Durbin model showed positive associations between TB incidence rates and se

关键词： Tuberculosis Surveillance Epidemiological characteristics Incidence Influence factor Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) spatial panel model China

Bayesian Estimation and model Selection for the Spatiotemporal Autoregressive model with Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Errors

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应用数学学报:英文版 2023年第4期39卷 972-989页

作者： Bing SU Fu-kang ZHU Ju HUANG Department of Statistics&Actuarial Science University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China School of Mathematics Jilin UniversityChangchun 130012China National Energy Administration Information Center Beijing 100045China

The spatial and spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(STARCH) models receive increasing attention. In this paper, we introduce a spatiotemporal autoregressive(STAR) model with STARCH errors, which can capture the spatiotemporal dependence in mean and variance simultaneously. The Bayesian estimation and model selection are considered for our model. By Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that the Bayesian estimator performs better than the corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator, and the Bayesian model selection can select out the true model in most times. Finally, two empirical examples are given to illustrate the superiority of our models in fitting those data.

关键词： autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model Bayesian estimation model selection spatial ARCH model spatial panel model spatiotemporal model

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon intensity from energy consumption in China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2014年第4期24卷 631-650页

作者： CHENG Yeqing WANG Zheye YE Xinyue WEI Yehua Dennis Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology CAS Changchun 130102 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Department of Geography Kent State University Kent Ohio 44242 USA Department of Geography University of Utah Salt Lake City UT 84112-9155 USA

The sustainable development has been seriously challenged by global climate change due to carbon emissions. As a developing country, China promised to reduce 40%-45% below the level of the year 2005 on its carbon intensity by 2020. The realization of this target depends on not only the substantive transition of society and economy at the national scale, but also the action and share of energy saving and emissions reduction at the provincial scale. Based on the method provided by the IPCC, this paper examines the spati- otemporal dynamics and dominating factors of China＇s carbon intensity from energy con- sumption in 1997-2010. The aim is to provide scientific basis for policy making on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in China. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, China＇s carbon emissions increased from 4.16 Gt to 11.29 Gt from 1997 to 2010, with an annual growth rate of 7.15%, which was much lower than that of GDP （11.72%）. Secondly, the trend of Moran＇s I indicated that China＇s carbon intensity has a growing spatial agglom- eration at the provincial scale. The provinces with either high or low values appeared to be path-dependent or space-locked to some extent. Third, according to spatial panel economet- ric model, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization rate were the dominating factors shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of China＇s carbon intensity from energy consumption. Therefore, in order to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction, China should improve the efficiency of energy utilization, optimize energy and industrial structure, choose the low-carbon urbanization approach and implement regional cooperation strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction.

关键词： carbon intensity spatiotemporal dynamics spatial autocorrelation spatial panel model China

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The Core Driver of China＇s Economic Growth： An Analysis Based on Cross- Region Spillover Effects of Factors

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China Economist 2013年第1期8卷 38-51页

作者： Ding Zhiguo Zhao Xuankai Su Zhi Center for Quantitative Economics Jilin University Changchun China School of Statistics Central University of Finance and Economics Beijing

China's recent economic slowdown has provoked academic discussion on what the core driver should be to ensure sustainable and healthy economic growth. To answer this question, it is essential to analyze the resources allocation efficiency. Using the newly-developed spatial panel data model, this paper studies not only the direct effect of resources allocation on local economies, but also the spillover effects on the economies in other regions. We are then able to assess the actual effects of resource factors on China's economic growth, including labor force, fixed-asset investment (FAI) and technical progress. The conclusions are: 1) during the past 13 years, the labor force has had an insignificant effect on all the three industries; 2) FAI has produced a prominent positive direct effect on secondary industry, but accompanied with even severer negative spillover effects which outweigh the positive ones; however, FAI has had significant direct and total effect on the tertiary industry; 3) technical progress has significant effects on all the three industries. Therefore, the labor force is not the core driver of China's economic growth, and the demographic dividend is an invalid explanation for China's economic growth. Instead, fixed-asset investment remains the powerhouse of China's economic growth, not in the secondary industry but in the tertiary industry. All in all, technical progress is the core driver for healthy economic growth as well as the inevitable path to industrial upgrading in China.

关键词： resources allocation efficiency FAI technical progress spatial panel model

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中国式财政分权与公共教育支出

教育学 2014年第10期

作者：李成宇史桂芬聂丽

财政分权与公共品供给的有效性一直是国内外学者广泛关注的热点问题。本文利用中国1997－2011年的省际面板数据，通过选择合适的空间面板模型实证研究中国式财政分权对教育支出的直接影响，以及相邻地区财政分权度对当地教育支出的空间... 详细信息

财政分权与公共品供给的有效性一直是国内外学者广泛关注的热点问题。本文利用中国1997－2011年的省际面板数据，通过选择合适的空间面板模型实证研究中国式财政分权对教育支出的直接影响，以及相邻地区财政分权度对当地教育支出的空间溢出效应。本文主要结论是：中国的财政分权形成了财政激励，使得地方政府过度追求经济增长，而忽视了对教育的投资；并且，财政分权对教育支出具有负向的空间溢出效应，即相邻地区财政分权程度提高会对当地的教育投入产生不利影响；政府规模以及政绩考核下的政府竞争对教育支出也具有负向的空间溢出效应。文章的研究结果为中国公共教育投入以及财政分权体制的进一步完善提供了一定的政策启示。

关键词：中国式财政分权教育支出空间面板模型 sinotype fiscal decentralization education expenditure spatial panel model

中国城市规模和产业结构对城市劳动生产率的协同效应研究

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区域与城市经济 2017年第1期

作者：陈杰周倩

文章基于我国281个地级及以上城市2000-2013年的面板数据，综合运用GMM、门槛面板模型和空间面板模型等计量方法，实证研究了城市规模和产业结构对中国城市劳动生产率的协同影响效应。研究发现：(1)中国城市劳动生产率与城市规模之间呈... 详细信息

文章基于我国281个地级及以上城市2000-2013年的面板数据，综合运用GMM、门槛面板模型和空间面板模型等计量方法，实证研究了城市规模和产业结构对中国城市劳动生产率的协同影响效应。研究发现：(1)中国城市劳动生产率与城市规模之间呈倒U形关系，与二产/三产增加值之比也呈现倒U形关系；(2)城市“规模红利”的发挥受制于产业结构，而产业结构的“结构红利”大小也受城市规模的影响。文章据此提出：虽然少数中国特大城市和大城市已经初步出现规模不经济迹象，但绝大多数中等城市规模仍偏小，“规模红利”还有待进一步开发，同时绝大多数城市还未充分发挥第二产业的潜力，不宜过早“去工业化”。文章据此对中国城市发展战略提出一系列政策建议，即要用更加市场化的手段鼓励城市规模优化和产业结构调整。

关键词：城市规模产业结构城市劳动生产率门槛面板模型空间面板模型 city size industrial structure urban labor productivity threshold panel model spatial panel model

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中国服务业扩张模式：平推化还是立体化？

产业经济 2013年第12期

作者：肖兴志李少林

本文从经济结构优化视角出发，提出并论证服务业平推化与立体化扩张模式选择的重要论题，通过构造最优服务业比重理论模型分析了服务业立体化扩张模式的内在特征，对1998-2010年中国服务业扩张的空间面板计量分析发现，服务业扩张存在... 详细信息

本文从经济结构优化视角出发，提出并论证服务业平推化与立体化扩张模式选择的重要论题，通过构造最优服务业比重理论模型分析了服务业立体化扩张模式的内在特征，对1998-2010年中国服务业扩张的空间面板计量分析发现，服务业扩张存在显著的空间正相关性。要素禀赋越高，立体化扩张越显著，技术采纳策略促进了服务业的平推化扩张。中国服务业立体化扩张模式滞后。从结构优化维度来讲，服务业立体化扩张模式显著优于平推化模式。

关键词：要素禀赋技术采纳平推化立体化空间面板模型 factor endowments technology adoption horizontal pushing three-dimensional expansion spatial panel model

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中国经济增长的核心动力

国民经济管理 2012年第12期

作者：丁志国赵宣凯苏治

伴随中国经济增速放缓迹象的不断出现和强化，什么能够成为中国经济继续健康发展的核心动力已经成为学术界争论的焦点，而这一问题判别的最重要科学依据则应该是资源要素的配置效率分析。本文采用新近发展的空间面板模型，在测度要素配... 详细信息

伴随中国经济增速放缓迹象的不断出现和强化，什么能够成为中国经济继续健康发展的核心动力已经成为学术界争论的焦点，而这一问题判别的最重要科学依据则应该是资源要素的配置效率分析。本文采用新近发展的空间面板模型，在测度要素配置对本地经济发展直接影响效应的同时，还测度了要素配置对其他地区经济的间接溢出效应，以判别劳动力、固定资产投资和技术进步等资源要素对中国经济增长的实际影响效果。结果表明：在过去的13年间，劳动力对三次产业发展的促进作用均不显著；固定资产投资对第二产业的正向直接效应显著，但伴随着显著且更加严重的负向溢出效应，总效应显著为负，而对第三产业的正向直接效应和正向总效应显著；技术进步对三次产业的促进效应均显著。由此可见，劳动力不是影响中国经济增长的核心动力，关于中国经济增长的“人口红利说”不存在有效的科学依据；固定资产投资仍然是中国经济增长行之有效的驱动力量，但不是在第二产业而是在第三产业；技术进步才是驱动中国经济健康持续增长的核心动力，同时也是中国实现产业升级的方向和必然的路径选择。

关键词：要素配置效率固定资产投资技术进步空间面板模型 factor allocation efficiency fixed asset investment technology progress spatial panel model

交通基础设施对区域旅游经济增长效应的实证分析

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旅游管理 2018年第10期

作者：侯志强

本文在综合考虑多维要素对区域旅游经济增长协同作用的基础上，以中国30个省域2001—2015年的面板数据为基础，以铁路和公路为交通基础设施变量，并将公路分为三级分别构建其对区域旅游经济增长效应的空间计量模型。实证研究结果表明：... 详细信息

本文在综合考虑多维要素对区域旅游经济增长协同作用的基础上，以中国30个省域2001—2015年的面板数据为基础，以铁路和公路为交通基础设施变量，并将公路分为三级分别构建其对区域旅游经济增长效应的空间计量模型。实证研究结果表明：(1)研究期内全国以及东、中、西部地区旅游经济增长具有显著的空间依赖性。(2)从全国看，各类交通基础设施对区域旅游经济增长均存在显著的直接效应和空间溢出效应，且空间溢出效应占总效应比重的3/4左右。(3)不同地区、不同交通基础设施对区域旅游经济增长效应存在明显空间差异：modelⅠ中，公路在三个地区均存在显著的正效应，铁路在中、西部正效应显著但在东部不显著；modelⅡ中，西部的高速公路、东部和西部的一级公路、东部和中部的二级公路均存在显著的正效应，而东部和中部的高速公路表现为不显著的负效应；且三个地区交通基础设施的空间溢出效应对该区域旅游经济增长的贡献均明显大于直接效应。(4)同时验证了旅游业固定资产投资、劳动投入等六个变量对区域旅游经济增长的协同影响，发现这些要素作用也存在明显的空间差异。最后结合研究结论和区域差异提出了相应的政策建议。

关键词：区域旅游经济增长交通基础设施直接效应和空间溢出效应空间差异空间面板模型 regional tourism economic growth transportation infrastructure direct effect and spatial spillover effect spatial difference spatial panel model