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Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19—a revisit to singapore's case

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Quantitative Biology 2020年第4期8卷 325-335页

作者： Hanshuang Pan Nian Shao Yue Yan Xinyue Luo Shufen Wang Ling Ye Jin Cheng Wenbin Chen School of Mathematical Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Shanghai Key Laboratory for Contemporary Applied Mathematics Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China School of Mathematics Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsShanghai 200433China Daishan County Center for Disease Control and Prevention Daishan 316200China

Background:COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly since late December 2019.Rapidly increasing infections has raised intense worldwide attention.How to model the evolution of COVID-19 effectively and efficiently is of great significance for prevention and control.Methods:We propose the multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model based on the original single-chain model in[Shao et al.2020]to describe the evolution of COVID-19 in singapore.Multi-chains can be considered as the superposition of several single chains with different characteristics.We identify the parameters of models by minimizing the penalty function.Results:The numerical simulation results exhibit the multi-chain model performs well on data fitting.Though unsteady the increments are,they could still fall within the range of±30%fluctuation from simulation results.Conclusion:The multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model provides an effective way to early detect the appearance of imported infectors and super spreaders and forecast a second outbreak.It can also explain the data from those countries where the single-chain model shows deviation from the data.

关键词： COVID-19 singapore multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model

singapore’s economicdevelopment:pro-or anti-Washington Consensus?

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Economic and Political Studies 2018年第1期6卷 30-52页

作者： Nathan Peng Sock-Yong Phang School of Social Sciences Singapore Management UniversitySingapore School of Economics Singapore Management UniversitySingapore

singapore's remarkable economic development in the past five decades since independence has attracted much policy attention.This article first provides a brief overview of singapore's economic development.The second part discusses singapore's development strategies that are aligned with the Washington Consensus:globalisation,conservative fiscal and monetary policies,investments in education and infrastructure.It also discusses the policies adopted to further enhance the outcomes of such policies.The third part focusses on policies that are inconsistent with the prescriptions of the Washington Consensus:the visible hand of government direction of industry,the important role of state owned enterprises,as well as growth-enhancing social policies.It concludes with the present challenges facing the city-state.

关键词： Washington Consensus economic development policies politicaleconomy singapore trade liberalisation financial liberalisation governance institutions

An economic analysis of varicella immunization in the singapore military

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Journal of Medical Colleges of PLA(China) 2016年第1期31卷 43-50页

作者： Jake J.K.Goh Marc Ho W.M.Koh Vernon J.Lee Specialist Medicine Centre AFPN 0047 27 Medical Drive #08-01 Singapore 117510 Singapore National University of singapore MD3 16 Medical Drive Singapore 117597 Singapore

Background:Varicella outbreaks occur frequently in closed environments such as those of militaries.This paper compares the economic outcomes of varicella vaccination in enlisted servicemen without prior reported varicella infection or vaccination.Methods:We analyzed the economic outcomes of a varicella vaccination program on all enlisted servicemen without prior reported varicella infection or vaccination in the singapore Armed Forces(SAF) between December 11,2010–December 20,2013,compared with the previous program of varicella vaccination only for selected personnel between December 1,2007–December 10,2010.Results:In the at-risk population of all active SAF servicemen,the program of varicella vaccination for all servicemen without prior reported varicella infection or vaccination upon enlistment would save 72.0 work days per 1000(95% CI:61.2-82.9),valued at SG$6,544 per 1000(95% CI:6,524-6,564),i.e.,costing SG$91.5 per work day saved(95% CI:78.7-107.3).This also results in a reduction of 2.7 varicella cases per 1000 and 5.43 outbreaks per 10000,or a total savings of SG$1,695 per 1000(95% CI:–2,730-6,834),taking into account the cost of work days lost over a three-year period,compared with the previous regime of vaccinations only for selected individuals.Conclusion:The varicella vaccination strategy targeting all enlisted servicemen without prior reported varicella infection or vaccination is able to prevent varicella infections and outbreaks,thus reducing absenteeism and days lost.

关键词： Varicella Vaccination Military singapore Economic analysis

Implementation of a real-time, data-driven online Epidemic Calculator for tracking the spread of COVID-19 in singapore and other countries

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 1159-1172页

作者： Fook Fah Yap Minglee Yong Nanyang Technological University School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering50 Nanyang AveSingapore639798Singapore Nanyang Technological University National Institute of Education1 Nanyang WalkSingapore637616Singapore

While there are many online data dashboards on COVID-19,there are few analytics available to the public and non-epidemiologists to help them gain a deeper insight into the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the effectiveness of social intervention measures.To address the issue,this study describes the methods underlying the development of a realtime,data-driven online Epidemic Calculator for tracking COVID-19 growth parameters.From publicly available infection case and death data,the calculator is used to estimate the effective reproduction number,final epidemic size,and death toll.As a case study,we analyzed the results for singapore during the"Circuit Breaker"period from April 7,2020 to the end of May 2020.The calculator shows that the stringent measures imposed have an immediate effect of rapidly slowing down the spread of the coronavirus.After about two weeks,the effective reproduction number reduced to about 1.0.Since then,the number has been fluctuating around 1.0 for more than a month.The COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator is available in the form of an online Google Sheet and the results are presented as Tableau Public dashboards at www.***.one.By making the calculator readily accessible online,the public can have a tool to assess the effectiveness of measures to control the pandemic meaningfully.

关键词： COVID-19 Reproduction number Doubling time Epidemic calculator singapore

Filling the Disaster Data Gap:Lessons from Cataloging singapore’s Past Disasters

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第2期12卷 188-204页

作者： Yolanda C.Lin Feroz Khan Susanna F.Jenkins David Lallemant Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNM87131USA Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological UniversitySingapore639798Singapore Earth Observatory of singapore Singapore639798Singapore Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy Tulane UniversityNew OrleansLA70112USA

International disaster databases and catalogs provide a baseline for researchers,governments,communities,and organizations to understand the risk of a particular place,analyze broader trends in disaster risk,and justify investments in mitigation.Perhaps because singapore is routinely identified as one of the safest countries in the world,singapore’s past disasters have not been studied extensively with few events captured in major global databases such as EM-DAT.In this article,we fill the disaster data gap for postwar singapore(1950–2020)using specified metrics through an archival search,review of literature,and analysis of secondary sources.We present four key lessons from cataloging these events.First,we expand singapore’s disaster catalog to 39 events in this time period and quantify the extent of this data gap.Second,we identify the mitigating actions that have followed past events that contribute to singapore’s present-day safety.Third,we discuss how these past events uncover continuities among vulnerability bearers in singapore.Last,we identify limitations of a disaster catalog when considering future risks.In expanding the disaster catalog,this case study of singapore supports the need for comprehensive understanding of past disasters in order to examine current and future disaster resilience.

关键词： Catalog Database Data gap Disasters Resilience singapore

Development of SC-10: A psychometrically equivalent singapore Mandarin disyllabic word list for clinical speech audiometry use

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World Journal of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery 2021年第3期7卷 247-256页

作者： Gary Jek Chong Lee Steven Lock Hey Lee Audiology Ng Teng Fong General HospitalSingapore Temasek Skillsfuture Academy Temasek PolytechnicSingapore Otolaryngology Changi General HospitalSingapore

Objective::The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a set of psychometrically equivalent disyllabic wordlist(SC-10)in singapore Mandarin for clinical use.Study design::A preliminary set of 1000 words were obtained from a dictionary of frequently used words by singapore students.Ten native judges rate the familiarity level of each word.This is followed by a face-to-face public survey to rank the shortlisted word set from most to least familiar.The final 108 disyllabic words were recorded by a native female talker.20 normal hearing subjects were used to obtain the percentage of correct word recognition at 24 intensity levels(-10 dB HL to 26 dB HL in 2 dB increment).Psychometric function slopes were calculated for each word.100 words were eventually chosen and assigned into ten 10-word lists based on a psychometric balancing protocol.Minor digital adjustments were made to the intensity of each wordlist to improve their auditory homogeneity.Results::The calculated regression slopes in the psychometric functions for the ten lists are between 8.0 and 9.8%/dB.Single factor ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in both the mean intensity required to obtain 50%recognition score(f=0.109,df=9,p=0.999)and the slopes of the psychometric functions(f=0.078,df=9,p=0.999)between the ten word lists.List validation on 25 normal hearing participants(PTA=11.0 dB HL,SD=4.3)showed a mean speech recognition threshold(SRT)of 9.3 dB HL(SD=3.5)and regression slope of 8.395%/dB.Quadratic regression analysis showed a positive correlation(r^(2)=0.923)between presentation level and word recognition score(WRS).The difference between PTA and SRT of each subject all fall within the clinically acceptable difference of 10 dB HL.Test-retest reliability,carried out on 20 subjects at three levels(SRT-5,SRT,and SRT+5 dB),showed no significance difference between word recognition score when the same participant is tested again at the same intensity level using a different wordlist.Conclusion::All in all,it shows that the SC-10 speech m

关键词： Speech audiometry Word recognition score Disyllabic word list Mandarin Chinese singapore SC-10

singapore’s Food Price Problems

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China Report ASEAN 2022年第7期7卷 38-39页

作者： Hu Yukun 不详

Heavily reliant on the global food market,singapore is now facing rising inflation resulting from the worsened food supply caused by the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.Keeping this challe... 详细信息

关键词： singapore inflation Russia

GIS Based FLMP Solving in Densely Populated City Areas: a Case Study in singapore

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Journal of Geodesy and Geoinformation Science 2022年第2期5卷 111-123页

作者： Yu Ning Hazel ANG Kai CAO Department of Geography National University of SingaporeSingapore 139649Singapore School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai 200241China Key Laboratory of Spatial-temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities(Ministry of Natural Resources) Shanghai 200241China

With continual population growth in the densely populated cities,e.g.,singapore,traffic congestion is the main transportation problem.As such,Public Transport is deemed as the most sustainable mode of transport.However,pubic transport is often plagued with the First and Last Mile Problem(FLMP),reducing its appeal especially in the densely populated city areas.The FLMP leads to a wide range of complications,in particular,human congestion in public transport.In this research,after a comprehensive discussion of FLMP problem in densely populated city areas,a case study in singapore,i.e.,the Kent Ridge Campus of National University of singapore(KRC-NUS),has been conducted based on the survey and spatio-temporal analyses.In addition to the investigation of FLMP status in the case study area,a new campus shuttle bus route from an alternative MRT station(Haw Par Villa Station)has also been proposed based on the Tabu Search to alleviate the human congestion and current FLMP status for KRC-NUS.This research not only has successfully addressed the FLMP in the case study area,but also can be a good reference for other areas in densely populated cities to help mitigate FLMPs.

关键词： GIS First and Last Mile Problem Tabu Search Public Transport singapore

The Comparative Study on the Management Mode of the Street Vending in Hong Kong and singapore

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Macro Management & Public Policies 2022年第1期4卷 5-14页

作者： Ying Chiu Hanxu Zhang Shanghai International Studies University ShanghaiChina Hong Kong Metropolitan University Hong KongChina

Street vending,one of the crucial livelihoods of poorer sections,persists in all cities;meanwhile,it brings increased social costs,like traffic congestion and public health,which becomes one of the main challenges of urban public space management.Adopted by the desk-and-computer research method,this paper would analyze the management measures of hawkers in Hong Kong and singapore from a comparative perspective.It,therefore,suggests that city administrations need to safeguard the rights of hawkers and adopt a more people-oriented management style,so as to pursue a more inclusive urban ecology.

关键词： Street vending Hawkers Spatial political economy Economy Hong Kong singapore