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Fault-tree Models of Accident Scenarios of RoPax Vessels

International Journal of Automation and computing 2006年第2期3卷 107-116页

作者： Pedro Antao C. Guedes Soares Unit of Marine Technology and Engineering Unit of Marine Technology and Engineering Technical University of LisbonInstituto Superior TecnicoLisbon 1049-001PortugalTechnical University of LisbonInstituto Superior TecnicoLisbon 1049-001Portugal

Ro-Ro vessels for cargo and passengers （RoPax） are a relatively new concept that has proven to be popular in the Mediterranean region and is becoming more widespread in Northern Europe. Due to its design characteristics and amount of passengers, although less than a regular passenger liner, accidents with RoPax vessels have far reaching consequences both for economical and for human life. The objective of this paper is to identify hazards related to casualties of RoPax vessels. The terminal casualty events chosen are related to accident and incident statistics for this type of vessel. This paper focuses on the identification of the basic events that can lead to an accident and the performance requirements. The hazard identification is carried out as the first step of a Formal Safety Assessment （FSA） and the modelling of the relation between the relevant events is made using Fault Tree Analysis （FTA）. The conclusions of this study are recommendations to the later steps of FSA rather than for decision making （Step 5 of FSA）. These recommendations will be focused on the possible design shortcomings identified during the analysis by fault trees throughout cut sets. Also the role that human factors have is analysed through a sensitivity analysis where it is shown that their influence is higher for groundings and collisions where an increase of the initial probability leads to the change of almost 90% of the accident occurrence.

关键词： ship accidents fault trees human factors.

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