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Deficiency of Healthcare Accessibility of Elderly People Exposed to Future Extreme Coastal Floods:A Case Study of Shanghai,China

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第5期14卷 840-857页

作者： Xinmeng Shan Paolo Scussolini Jun Wang Mengya Li Jiahong Wen Lei Wang Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Institute for National Safety and Emergency Management East China Normal UniversityShanghai200062China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands School of Public Management East China Normal UniversityShanghai200062China School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai200234China Department of Geography&Anthropology Louisiana State UniversityBaton RougeLA70803USA

Socioeconomic development,subsidence,and climate change have led to high flood risks in coastal cities,making the vulnerable,especially elderly people,more prone to floods.However,we mostly do not know how the accessibility of life-saving public resources for the elderly population will change under future scenarios.Using Shanghai as a case,this study introduced a new analytical framework to fill this gap.We integrated for the first time models of coastal flooding,local population growth,and medical resource supply-demand estimation.The results show that under an extreme scenario of coastal flooding in the year 2050,in the absence of adaptation,half of the elderly population may be exposed to floods,the supply of medical resources will be seriously insufficient compared to the demand,and the accessibility of emergency medical services will be impaired by flooding.Our methodology can be applied to gain insights for other vulnerable coastal cities,to assist robust decision making about emergency responses to flood risks for elderly populations in an uncertain future.

关键词： Coastal floods Elderly population Flood exposure analysis Healthcare accessibility Shanghai

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An advection fog event response to future climate forcing in the 2030s-2080s:a case study for Shanghai

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2023年第2期17卷 527-546页

作者： Ying GU Hiroyuki KUSAKA Quang-Van DOAN School of Air Transportation Shanghai University of Engineering ScienceShanghai 201620China Center for Computational Sciences University of Tsukuba1-1-1 TennodaiTsukubaIbaraki 305-8577Japan

Fog may continue to inhibit industry in the future.Here,we focused on a specific advection fog event in Shanghai,China,and applied a pseudo global warming method to examine advection fog under the RCP8.5 highemission scenario.The method involved downscaling the future atmospheric conditions over the ensemble average of 19 global climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5).We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model(WRF‒UCM)to run four sensitivity experiments and examined the advection fog and its relationship to changes in meteorological conditions.The results showed that:1)The advection fog event tended to remain in Shanghai despite global warming;2)advection fog will not change greatly in the future;however,the onset and dissipation times will change slightly;3)relative humidity(RH)locally increases prior to the onset of the advection fog,and decreases at the dissipating stage,despite the current and future experiments having the same RH initial and boundary conditions;4)a small increase in surface air temperature and an increase in RH contribute to the early advection fog onset,and vice versa.Windspeed facilitates the early onset and dissipation of advection fog.

关键词： advection fog global warming PGW DDS WRF-UCM Shanghai

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Dynamic antimicrobial resistant patterns of Escherichia coli from healthy poultry and swine over 10 years in Chongming Island,Shanghai

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2022年第5期11卷 50-62页

作者： Chao Lv Jun Shang Wengang Zhang Bingqing Sun Min Li Chaoyi Guo Nan Zhou Xiaokui Guo Shixin Huang Yongzhang Zhu Department of Animal Health and Food Safety School of Global HealthChinese Center for Tropical Diseases ResearchShanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina One Health Center Shanghai Jiao Tong University-The University of EdinburghShanghai 200025China Shanghai Center for Animal Disease Prevention and Control Shanghai Institute for Veterinary Drugs and Feeds ControlShanghai 201103China

Background:Antimicrobial resistance(AMR)is one of the greatest threats to animal and public health.Here,we conducted a dynamic surveillance of Escherichia coli on Chongming Island in Shanghai during 2009-2021 to identify the characteristics and trends of Chongming’s AMR pandemic.Methods:Rectal(cloaca)swabs from four poultry and nine swine farms(Chongming Island,2009-2021)were collected for E.coli strains acquisition.The micro-broth dilution method was used to test antimicrobial susceptibility of E.coli isolates against 10 antimicrobial classes including 15 antimicrobials.Utilizing generalized linear mixed models(GLMMs)and co-occurrence analyses,we further explored the multiple-drug-resistance(MDR)combinations and dynamic patterns of E.coli over 10 years in two food animals.Results:Total of 863 MDR isolates were found among 945 collected E.coli isolates,337 from poultry and 608 from swine.Both isolates exhibited high resistant rates(>70%)to tetracyclines,phenicols,sulfonamides,penicillins,and aminoglycosides(only in swine).The resistant rates of swine isolates to penicillins,aminoglycosides,tetracyclines,phenicols,and polymyxins were significantly higher than those of poultry isolates,whereas resistance to fluoroquinolones was reversed.Resistance to polymyxins decreased similarly in swine(42.4%in 2009 to 0.0%in 2021)and poultry isolates(from 16.5%to 0.0%).However,resistance to other seven antimicrobial classes(excluding carbapenems and penicillins)declined dramatically in swine isolates,particularly fluoroquinolones(from 80.5%to 14.4%),and tendencies of resistance to the seven classes showed markedly divergent patterns in poultry isolates.Using Poisson GLMMs,the AMR carriage since 2016 was significantly lower than that of 2009(odds ratio<1),indicating a decline in the risk of MDR emergence.Furthermore,despite the highly diverse MDR profiles,co-occurrence analysis identified two prominent MDR clusters of penicillins-phenicols-fluoroquinolones in poultry and aminoglycosides-tetracyclines-sulfonamides-phenicols in sw

关键词： Antimicrobial resistance Escherichia coli Food animal Longitudinal trend analysis Chongming Island Shanghai

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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

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Decomposing and mapping different scales of land subsidence over Shanghai with X-and C-Band SAR data stacks

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2022年第1期15卷 478-502页

作者： Ru Wang Mengshi Yang Tianliang Yang Jinxin Lin Mingsheng Liao State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote SensingWuhan UniversityWuhanPeople’s Republic of China School of Earth Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunmingPeople’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Land Subsidence Monitoring and Prevention Ministry of Land and ResourcesShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China Shanghai Institute of Geological Survey ShanghaiPeople’s Republic of China

Land subsidence can be observed with time-series of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(InSAR)data.However,existing approaches only reveal subsidence signals that are multi-scale mixed,which is not conducive to the systematic analysis of subsidence of different mechanisms.A deformation signal decomposition(DSD)method based on spectral analysis is used to decompose the deformation extracted by time-series InSAR into three classes of deformation signals.They refer to large-scale deformation related to geological settings,medium-scale deformation caused more by group excavation,and small-scale deformation along linear infrastructures.TerraSAR-X datasets for Shanghai spanning April 2013 to September 2020,and Sentinel-1A datasets spanning January 2016 to September 2020 are used in this study.The results were cross-verified between the TerraSAR-X and Sentinel-1A datasets,and validated against levelling measurements.Subsidence signals caused by different mechanisms were automatically decomposed,which facilitates a systematic analysis for targeted diagnosis of land subsidence signals.A detailed analysis was conducted jointly at three scales of surface displacement,geological conditions,major construction activities,and subsidence mechanisms.It indicated that construction activities were the leading cause of land subsidence,and suggests that local authorities that wish to mitigate surface subsidence may benefit from primarily considering this process.

关键词： Deformation decomposition land subsidence time-series InSAR Shanghai

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Differences of maternal mortality rate between Shanghai and New York city from the perspective of regulatory policy

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Chinese Medical Journal 2020年第7期133卷 792-799页

作者： Li Li Cheng-Yue Li Qing-Yu Zhou Chuan Pu Ling-Zhong Xu Tian-Qiang Xu Chao Hao Zhi Hu Mo Hao Research Institute of Health Development Strategies Fudan UniversityShanghai 200032China Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health Fudan UniversityShanghai 200032China School of Public Health and Management Chongqing Medical UniversityChongqing 400016China School of Public Health Shandong UniversityJinanShandong 250012China Institute of Inspection and Supervision Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family PlanningShanghai 200031China Changzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention NanjingJiangsu 213003China Anhui Medical University HefeiAnhui 230032China

Background:Regulatory policy(RP)is known as a major factor to improve health care system performance.A significant difference in maternal mortality rates(MMRs)was observed between New York city(NYC)and Shanghai(SH),both first-class international metropolises.This study aims to adopt a quantitative evaluation model to analyze whether RP differences contribute to the different MMRs of the two cities.Methods:Based on collection of all publicly released policy documents regarding maternal health in the two cities,we assessed and compared the status of their maternal health care RPs from 2006 to 2017 through a series of quantitative indicators as regulatory elements coverage rate(RECR),departmental responsibility clarity rate(DRCR),and accountability mechanism clarity rate(AMCR),based on two characteristics of comprehensiveness and effectiveness of RPs.Pearson correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and linear regression analysis were used to test the relationships between the indicators and MMR in SH and NYC.Results:By 2017,disparities of maternal health care RP are found between SH and NYC,from the indicators of RECR(100%vs.77.0%),DRCR(38.9%vs.45.1%),and AMCR(29.2%vs.22.5%).From 2006 to 2017,RECR,DRCR,and AMCR in SH have shown a higher growth of 8.7%,53.2%,and 45.2%,compared with growth of 25.0%,12.5%,and 2.9%in NYC.The three indicators were found all negatively correlated with MMR in SH(Coefficients=-0.831,-0.833,and-0.909,and P<0.01),while only RECR and DRCR had negative correlation with MMR in NYC(Coefficients=-0.736 and-0.683,and P<0.05).Linear regression showed that the principal components of the three indicators were found with significant impact on MMRs both in SH(R=0.914,R2=0.836,P<0.001)and NYC(R=0.854,R2=0.357,P=0.04).Conclusion:Compared with NYC,the more comprehensive and effective maternal health care RPs in SH had a stronger impact on MMR control,which contributed to the differences between the two cities’MMRs to some extent.The methods and indicators we adopted for assessment are reasonable

关键词： Maternal mortality Regulatory policy Maternal health Shanghai New York

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Yearly variation in character istics and health risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and nitro-PAHs in urban Shanghai from 2010-2018

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2021年第1期33卷 72-79页

作者： Lu Yang Xuan Zhang Wanli Xing Quanyu Zhou Lulu Zhang Qing Wu Zhijun Zhou Renjie Chen Akira Toriba Kazuichi Hayakawa Ning Tang Graduate School of Medical Sciences Kanazawa UniversityKakuma-machiKanazawa920-1192Jjapan School of Public Health Fudan UniversityShanghai 200032China Institute of Medical Pharmaceutical and Health SciencesKanazawa UniversityKakuma-machiKanazawa920-1192Japan Institute of Nature and Environmental Technology Kanazawa UniversityKakuma-machi920-1192KanazawaJapan

This study encompassed the regular observation of nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)and three nitro-PAHs(NPAHs)in particulate matter(PM)in Shanghai in summer and winter from 2010 to 2018.The results showed that the mean concentrations of∑PAHs in summer decreased by 24.7%in 2013 and 18.1%in 2017 but increased by 10.2%in 2015 compared to the data in 2010.However,the mean concentrations of∑PAHs in winter decreased by 39.7%from 2010(12.8±4.55 ng/m^3)to 2018(7.72±3.33 ng/m^3),and the mean concentrations of 1-nitropyrene in winter decreased by 79.0%from 2010(42.3±16.1 pg/m^3)to 2018(8.90±2.09 pg/m^3).Correlation analysis with meteorological conditions revealed that the PAH and NPAH concentrations were both influenced by ambient temperature.The diagnostic ratios of PAHs and factor analysis showed that they were mainly affected by traffic emissions with some coal and/or biomass combustion.The ratio of 2-nitrofluoranthene to 2-nitropyrene was near 10,which indicated that the OH radical-initiated reaction was the main pathway leading to their secondary formation.Moreover,backward trajectories revealed different air mass routes in each sampling period,indicating a high possibility of source effects from the northern area in winter in addition to local and surrounding influences.Meanwhile,the mean total benzo[a]pyrene-equivalent concentrations in Shanghai in winter decreased by 50.8%from 2010(1860±645 pg/m^3)to 2018(916±363 pg/m^3).These results indicated the positive effects of the various policies and regulations issued by Chinese authorities.

关键词： Air pollution Fine particulate matter Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons Nitropolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons Health risk Shanghai

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Climate trends in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation and wind over Shanghai

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2022年第3期11卷 219-224页

作者： Lina Bai Rijin Wan Rong Guo Ming Ying Rui Jin Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina

The trends in annual precipitation and wind induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)over Shanghai during the last 40 years are estimated.Results indicate that there is a significant increasing trend in the annual total precipitation induced by TCs,which is related to the significant positive trends in daily precipitation and annual torrential rain days.Meanwhile,a significant decreasing trend shows in maximum sustained wind,which seems to be related to the downward trend in the intensity of TCs when affecting Shanghai.The annual frequencies of affected TCs,TC translation speed and distance from Shanghai when affecting Shanghai have no obvious tendency.The different trends in precipitation and wind suggested that a more comprehensive metric for assessing TCs'influence on society is necessary.

关键词： Tropical cyclone Precipitation Wind Climate trend Shanghai

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The museum method of reusing Shanghai waterfront industrial heritage:continuation and reconstruction of urban memory

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Built Heritage 2023年第4期7卷 16-34页

作者： Lan Luo Yongkang Cao Department of Architecture School of DesignShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghaiChina

In the context of transforming traditional labour-intensive industries into the service economy in China,the reuse of industrial heritage as museums has become a trend,for example,along Shanghai waterfronts,gradually fuelling the continuation of urban memory,reshaping urban cultural identity and promoting the development of the waterfront economy.Additionally,the connotation of a museum is continually being expanded from an institution to a method,and the major function is gradually shifting from collection to display.Previous studies on Shanghai waterfront industrial heritage have mostly referred to cultural factors,but these factors are still mainly included in macroscale large waterfront projects or microscale single practical project analyses.Mesoscale typology discussions between the two are rare.Therefore,this paper examines eleven industrial heritage sites that have been repurposed as museums along Shanghai waterfronts to analyse the urban memory elements of industrial heritage and summarise three classes of memory interpretation strategies:translating memory information,renovating memory carriers,and relating memory clues.Finally,the advantages and disadvantages of the study cases are discussed separately,and the following corresponding recommendations are made:1)further enrich and balance memory interpretation strategies;2)enhance the rationality,service,and tolerance of the“exhibition+”mode;and 3)improve local laws and regulations related to the protection and utilisation of industrial heritage to provide references for similar reuse designs.

关键词： Waterfront industrial heritage museum reuse strategies Shanghai urban memory memory interpretation

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Baosteel emission control significantly benefited air quality in Shanghai

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2018年第9期30卷 127-135页

作者： Ting Han Lan Yao Li Liu Aiyong Xian Hui Chen Wenbo Dong Jianmin Chen Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Baoshan Environmental Protection Bureau Shanghai 201900China Yellow River Shandong Bureau Jinan 250000China Center for Excellence in Regional Atmospheric Environment Institute of Urban EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXiamen 361021China

As the largest iron and steel producer in China, a part of Baosteel moved out of Shanghai deserves close attention due to its environmental impact. To understand the effect of Baosteel emission control on air quality in Shanghai, daily PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO were measured from 2010 to 2016. Concentrations of pollutants in Baoshan District presented a decreased trend during 2010-2016, with a reduction rate of 28.6% for PM10, 67.3% for SO2, 8.6% for NO2 and 42.0% for CO. However, fine particle pollution in Baoshan District during 2012-2016 seems to become more prominent, with PM2.5 concentration of 47 ± 28, 45 ± 33, 38 ± 24, 54 ± 41 and 51 ± 34 μg/m^3, respectively, indicating a slight increase of 8.5% in PM2.5. Concentrations of PM10 and CO decreased by 12.5% and 33.8% in the second half year in 2016 （compared with that in 2015） probably due to closure of blast furnace of Baosteel. Baosteel was identified as the largest pollution source in Baoshan District. Emission from Baosteel accounted for 58.0% of SO2, 43.6% of NO2 and 79.3% of dust in total emission from Baoshan District during 2010-2015. Meanwhile, pollutant emission and coal consumption from Baosteel decreased by 52.0% for SO2, 40.1% for NO2, 15.7% for dust and 22% for coal consumption. Energy consumption in Baoshan District reduced by 31% from 2011 to 2015. Air quality improvement in Shanghai was attributed to local emission reduction, together with regional air quality improvement.

关键词： Baosteel Emission control Air quality Shanghai

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